(03-27-2018, 09:28 AM)NJ JagsFan Wrote: [ -> ] (03-26-2018, 06:01 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]It's not about beating them out. It's about having a different skill-set than them - one that the receiver corps was missing last year w/o Robinson.
Sure, they are rolling the dice on his production vs his potential, but you have to trust your player evaluation sometimes over statistics. The Jags are betting on their evaluation with this deal as well as the Hayden deal. I hope they don't lose those bets.
It kinda is though... you're paying this guy 10m for a year. That isn't the kind of money you throw out just because of his size and speed its because you're expecting him to be better then one the other 3 (by a significant amount). Not including we pretty much cut Hurns for it who was going to get paid 7m this year and has had better production then Moncrief. If it was just about size we would have stuck with Strong or any other tall fast wideout whose out there or could draft but no. The money shows that this guy is expected to show something that he hasn't in the past which I don't think is smart to bet on especially since you're already paying him the money.
And on top of all that there is no way you could tell me that we had to pay this guy 10m... there is no way he was having that many offers where we had to overpay for this guy? That's also not including that this guy had only a 700 yard season with a top tier QB throwing to him and when he had a below average QB throwing to him he was significantly worse (300 yard seasons and we just paid this guy 10m LOL). Plus its not like this guy hasn't had his fair share of injuries.. so this could easily have been 10m in cap we just rolled over to next year.
Obviously we can argue about this all we want but it won't matter until the season starts and we actually see productivity. This guy just seems to have a lot of if's and not a lot of production to warrant 10m/year contract and in the small chance he does ball out you think we will be able to afford the long term deal next year? probably not is my guess. So the only upside is that he balls out this one year and thats really it... or you know.. he fails out and isn't worth the money.
I wouldn't get as hung up on the price tag as you are. They did the one year deal because of how our cap room was structured this year. we will not have the extra 30 mil next year because that is roll over cap from last year. Really, after the norwell signing, we were only in a position to bring on guys who were only short or front loaded contracts. I think they wanted a more reliable( as far as health), big body, and quick outside threat that they could pay a quick one year deal while they decide how they are going to replace the bigger bodied/possession receivers we lost in arob and Hurns, if he works out great, if not, it's not a long term investment. It's not that he is better than or has more of a upside than the guys we have now, it that he has a different skill set amd hurns Could't stay healthy. We have young and fast but are slightly undersized at this point.
I would look at it more of a stop gap. even though it looks expensive because it's 10m this year, it is a one year deal and we would lose that money if we didn't use it anyway. If he turns into a big #1 then pay him, but i think it gives us a little more leeway just in case one of our young guys doesn't pan out and allows us a contingency if we don't find anything in this draft. We don;t have the cap room after this year to pay 10mil to an "unproven" guy, so we had to find a guy like him who would be willing to take a deal like that.
(03-27-2018, 10:13 AM)JagsorDie Wrote: [ -> ] (03-27-2018, 09:28 AM)NJ JagsFan Wrote: [ -> ]It kinda is though... you're paying this guy 10m for a year. That isn't the kind of money you throw out just because of his size and speed its because you're expecting him to be better then one the other 3 (by a significant amount). Not including we pretty much cut Hurns for it who was going to get paid 7m this year and has had better production then Moncrief. If it was just about size we would have stuck with Strong or any other tall fast wideout whose out there or could draft but no. The money shows that this guy is expected to show something that he hasn't in the past which I don't think is smart to bet on especially since you're already paying him the money.
And on top of all that there is no way you could tell me that we had to pay this guy 10m... there is no way he was having that many offers where we had to overpay for this guy? That's also not including that this guy had only a 700 yard season with a top tier QB throwing to him and when he had a below average QB throwing to him he was significantly worse (300 yard seasons and we just paid this guy 10m LOL). Plus its not like this guy hasn't had his fair share of injuries.. so this could easily have been 10m in cap we just rolled over to next year.
Obviously we can argue about this all we want but it won't matter until the season starts and we actually see productivity. This guy just seems to have a lot of if's and not a lot of production to warrant 10m/year contract and in the small chance he does ball out you think we will be able to afford the long term deal next year? probably not is my guess. So the only upside is that he balls out this one year and thats really it... or you know.. he fails out and isn't worth the money.
I wouldn't get as hung up on the price tag as you are. They did the one year deal because of how our cap room was structured this year. we will not have the extra 30 mil next year because that is roll over cap from last year. Really, after the norwell signing, we were only in a position to bring on guys who were only short or front loaded contracts. I think they wanted a more reliable( as far as health), big body, and quick outside threat that they could pay a quick one year deal while they decide how they are going to replace the bigger bodied/possession receivers we lost in arob and Hurns, if he works out great, if not, it's not a long term investment. It's not that he is better than or has more of a upside than the guys we have now, it that he has a different skill set amd hurns Could't stay healthy. We have young and fast but are slightly undersized at this point.
I would look at it more of a stop gap. even though it looks expensive because it's 10m this year, it is a one year deal and we would lose that money if we didn't use it anyway. If he turns into a big #1 then pay him, but i think it gives us a little more leeway just in case one of our young guys doesn't pan out and allows us a contingency if we don't find anything in this draft. We don;t have the cap room after this year to pay 10mil to an "unproven" guy, so we had to find a guy like him who would be willing to take a deal like that.
The thing is, he isn't reliable or more reliable then Hurns they have both been in the NFL since 2014 and Montcreif has only been available one more game then Hurns has.
(03-27-2018, 09:28 AM)NJ JagsFan Wrote: [ -> ] (03-26-2018, 06:01 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]It's not about beating them out. It's about having a different skill-set than them - one that the receiver corps was missing last year w/o Robinson.
Sure, they are rolling the dice on his production vs his potential, but you have to trust your player evaluation sometimes over statistics. The Jags are betting on their evaluation with this deal as well as the Hayden deal. I hope they don't lose those bets.
It kinda is though... you're paying this guy 10m for a year. That isn't the kind of money you throw out just because of his size and speed its because you're expecting him to be better then one the other 3 (by a significant amount).
Not including we pretty much cut Hurns for it who was going to get paid 7m this year and has had better production then Moncrief.
And on top of all that there is no way you could tell me that we had to pay this guy 10m....
I couldn't disagree more with the first two sentences here.
There simply was not a receiver on the roster (before Moncreif signed) that demonstrates ability to high-point 50/50 balls, play the sideline back shoulder pass well, and provide a distinct mismatch in the redzone to the degree Moncreif does those things.
They paid for his skill set at the X position. It's much more specific than you want it to be. Westbrook and Cole have very different skill sets than Moncreif (especially Westbrook) - and Lee is the only other guy besides Moncreif that has demonstrated an ability to beat press coverage at the line without frequently having his route timing ruined by the defender. Cole and Westbrook don't have that. Cole might get there eventually, but he's not there yet.
You can't just ignore this stuff. Coaches and GMs build receiving corps based upon diversity of skill-set commonly. I'm not just making this stuff up. Did you really want to start the season with only one receiver that has shown he's consistently tough enough to beat the jam at the line? That would be unwise.
Hurns was offered a new deal commensurate with his level of production after just having pocketed an easy 16 million. He declined. That's not on the Jags. That was the departed player's decision.
I agree they overpaid Moncreif and I also believe they overpaid Hayden. It happens pretty often in free agency, but still, those contracts should be ~15% less in my opinion.
(03-27-2018, 10:38 AM)NJ JagsFan Wrote: [ -> ] (03-27-2018, 10:13 AM)JagsorDie Wrote: [ -> ]I wouldn't get as hung up on the price tag as you are. They did the one year deal because of how our cap room was structured this year. we will not have the extra 30 mil next year because that is roll over cap from last year. Really, after the norwell signing, we were only in a position to bring on guys who were only short or front loaded contracts. I think they wanted a more reliable( as far as health), big body, and quick outside threat that they could pay a quick one year deal while they decide how they are going to replace the bigger bodied/possession receivers we lost in arob and Hurns, if he works out great, if not, it's not a long term investment. It's not that he is better than or has more of a upside than the guys we have now, it that he has a different skill set amd hurns Could't stay healthy. We have young and fast but are slightly undersized at this point.
I would look at it more of a stop gap. even though it looks expensive because it's 10m this year, it is a one year deal and we would lose that money if we didn't use it anyway. If he turns into a big #1 then pay him, but i think it gives us a little more leeway just in case one of our young guys doesn't pan out and allows us a contingency if we don't find anything in this draft. We don;t have the cap room after this year to pay 10mil to an "unproven" guy, so we had to find a guy like him who would be willing to take a deal like that.
The thing is, he isn't reliable or more reliable then Hurns they have both been in the NFL since 2014 and Montcreif has only been available one more game then Hurns has.
Valid point, I would argue that Moncrief's can be over come. Ankle, Groin, Shoulder, Hamstring, and Groin and most of them he played through. Hurns has concussion issues that could end his career early. Not to mention that Hurns was probably not going to renegotiate a one year deal.
Can we be honest enough that when he was healthy he looked every bit as good or better than Arob (when he was healthy?)
He did.
There was a reason he was graded higher than Arob as a prospect.
That being said, it will all play itself out in due time.
(03-27-2018, 11:06 AM)pirkster Wrote: [ -> ]Can we be honest enough that when he was healthy he looked every bit as good or better than Arob (when he was healthy?)
He did.
There was a reason he was graded higher than Arob as a prospect.
That being said, it will all play itself out in due time.
Yeah, but lets speculate and complain a little more because, for the last decade, that is what we have been hardwired to do at this time of year.
It's going to take a few good off seasons for us to reprogram.
(03-27-2018, 11:06 AM)pirkster Wrote: [ -> ]Can we be honest enough that when he was healthy he looked every bit as good or better than Arob (when he was healthy?)
He did.
There was a reason he was graded higher than Arob as a prospect.
That being said, it will all play itself out in due time.
Which seasons do you think he looked every bit as good or better than Arob in?
(04-03-2018, 06:42 PM)JackCity Wrote: [ -> ] (03-27-2018, 11:06 AM)pirkster Wrote: [ -> ]Can we be honest enough that when he was healthy he looked every bit as good or better than Arob (when he was healthy?)
He did.
There was a reason he was graded higher than Arob as a prospect.
That being said, it will all play itself out in due time.
Which seasons do you think he looked every bit as good or better than Arob in?
I mean, in 15 he was on point. But he was also running as a #2/Z and arob was the one pulling the safety and top corners. So imho it is hard to tell what he would have done if was in arob's role. But when it was his time shine last year, he was meh at best. He will fall right back into his sidekick role in Dallas, because Dez will play the arob roll, so he should feel right at home.
(04-03-2018, 10:34 PM)JagsorDie Wrote: [ -> ] (04-03-2018, 06:42 PM)JackCity Wrote: [ -> ]Which seasons do you think he looked every bit as good or better than Arob in?
I mean, in 15 he was on point. But he was also running as a #2/Z and arob was the one pulling the safety and top corners. So imho it is hard to tell what he would have done if was in arob's role. But when it was his time shine last year, he was meh at best. He will fall right back into his sidekick role in Dallas, because Dez will play the arob roll, so he should feel right at home.
Pretty sure they're talking about moncrief, not hurns.
This is funny to me.
NOBODY would have suggested that Moncrief had been just as good if not better than Arob on here if Arob has stayed with us.
If Moncrief was on some other team nobody would say it either. Take off the blinkers.
(04-03-2018, 10:38 PM)Achilles Wrote: [ -> ] (04-03-2018, 10:34 PM)JagsorDie Wrote: [ -> ]I mean, in 15 he was on point. But he was also running as a #2/Z and arob was the one pulling the safety and top corners. So imho it is hard to tell what he would have done if was in arob's role. But when it was his time shine last year, he was meh at best. He will fall right back into his sidekick role in Dallas, because Dez will play the arob roll, so he should feel right at home.
Pretty sure they're talking about moncrief, not hurns.
well that changes quite a bit. My bad. In that case, who knows. Although they were similar scenarios, hurns had arob, moncrief had Hilton(and no qb half the time). So I guess I would say the jury is still out on moncrief because it is a little harder to get an idea of what he is really capable of because he hasn't been the true #1
(04-03-2018, 06:24 PM)Achilles Wrote: [ -> ] (04-03-2018, 04:41 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]http://www.espn.com/blog/jacksonville-ja...-mccardell
Marrone on McCardell working with Moncreif ^
“There was one time I looked out there and I saw Cole, I saw Westbrook, and I saw Mickens and I said, ‘Holy s---!’ Marrone said. "'I said, ‘Where the hell did all our receivers go?’
Lololol
I thought you made that up until I read the article, lol.
(04-03-2018, 06:42 PM)JackCity Wrote: [ -> ] (03-27-2018, 11:06 AM)pirkster Wrote: [ -> ]Can we be honest enough that when he was healthy he looked every bit as good or better than Arob (when he was healthy?)
He did.
There was a reason he was graded higher than Arob as a prospect.
That being said, it will all play itself out in due time.
Which seasons do you think he looked every bit as good or better than Arob in?
I said nothing about season stats. Looking at it objectively, player to player, he did look every bit as good a player. Can you explain why he was a higher graded prospect than Robinson? Note, I said explain. Not excuse.
(03-27-2018, 11:06 AM)pirkster Wrote: [ -> ]Can we be honest enough that when he was healthy he looked every bit as good or better than Arob (when he was healthy?)
He did.
There was a reason he was graded higher than Arob as a prospect.
That being said, it will all play itself out in due time.
Who cares how they were graded as a prospect?
ARob has been better than Moncreif in every single aspect of being an NFL WR.
(04-03-2018, 06:24 PM)Achilles Wrote: [ -> ]“There was one time I looked out there and I saw Cole, I saw Westbrook, and I saw Mickens and I said, ‘Holy s---!’ Marrone said. "'I said, ‘Where the hell did all our receivers go?’
Lololol
That is classic !!!
Of course Chris Simms, who berates Bortles wouldn't understand. But then again, a man of Simms' kind of talent (12 tds / 18 ints / 3117 career passing yards) expects perfection.
(04-03-2018, 10:53 PM)JackCity Wrote: [ -> ]This is funny to me.
NOBODY would have suggested that Moncrief had been just as good if not better than Arob on here if Arob has stayed with us.
If Moncrief was on some other team nobody would say it either. Take off the blinkers.
There were about a dozen folks here pretty high on Moncreif when he came out in the draft and hoping he may be a Jag.
Not a stretch for those folks to think Moncreif has the skill set to play on a similar level. The QB situation in Indy hasn't exactly helped the kid.
He's got a lot to prove to be "better than A-Rob" in my book, but I think it's quite feasible that he could do as much, or more at the X than A-Rob did in the 2016 season.