Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

(04-05-2018, 09:08 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-05-2018, 08:42 AM)Cleatwood Wrote: [ -> ]It does absolutely nothing because pre draft scouting reports mean nothing when players have been in the league for almost 5 years.

I agree completely with this.

In fairness, there are things post draft that impact WR productivity positively and negatively (coaching/scheme, QB, other targets, etc.) But at face value, those things would have appeared to benefit Moncrief more than Robinson, yet Robinson was still more productive.

Actually - this ^  is worth considering. 

In 2015 - the year everyone seems to use as a measuring stick for A-Rob - the numbers for these two receivers are interesting to compare for a number of reasons.

Remember - Moncrief had Luck at the helm for only 7 games that year and Luck posted QB ratings below 70 in three of those games - with some sub-54% comp percentages sprinkled in too.  Moncrief did see time in all 16 games but only "started" ten of them which hints at his involvement/priority in the scheme as well.
 T.Y. Hilton was the guy getting a tailored scheme and primary looks. 

A-Rob:
Targets - 151
Catches - 80  (catch rate 53%)

Moncreif:
Targets: 105
Catches - 64 (catch rate 61%)

So - yes - this stuff affects the way we view Moncrief's production to a degree. 
He didn't achieve the yards per catch (11.5 vs 17.5) or TDs that Robinson did in 2015, but he had T.Y Hilton ahead of him in the game plan and a sketchy QB situation of his own to deal with. 

It will really be interesting to see what type of production he's able to muster with a (hopefully) big run game, a cluster of speedy receivers to compliment him, and a prove-it deal he'll certainly want to parlay into something greater. 

Call me crazy - but I feel good about the kid if he stays healthy. *knocks on wooden desk vehemently*
He doesn't have to even have a 1000 yard season. He just has to take advantage of his opportunities - which are almost certain to be FAR fewer than Robinson's 2015 season of 151 targets.  

How many drive ending third down incompletions can you look back on from 2017 when you thought "Man, if we had A-Rob right there he might have gotten us those 8 yards with a quick-in, a comeback, or even a sideline jump-ball." 

That's 2/3 of Moncrief's job 1n 2018. Be there as another option to convert those plays. An option we missed in 2017.  The other 1/3 involves his speed to get deep in play action, IMO. (Even if he's just clearing space underneath.)

(04-05-2018, 09:54 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-05-2018, 09:08 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]I agree completely with this.

In fairness, there are things post draft that impact WR productivity positively and negatively (coaching/scheme, QB, other targets, etc.) But at face value, those things would have appeared to benefit Moncrief more than Robinson, yet Robinson was still more productive.

Actually - this ^  is worth considering. 

In 2015 - the year everyone seems to use as a measuring stick for A-Rob - the numbers for these two receivers are interesting to compare for a number of reasons.

Remember - Moncrief had Luck at the helm for only 7 games that year and Luck posted QB ratings below 70 in three of those games - with some sub-54% comp percentages sprinkled in too.  Moncrief did see time in all 16 games but only "started" ten of them which hints at his involvement/priority in the scheme as well.
 T.Y. Hilton was the guy getting a tailored scheme and primary looks. 

A-Rob:
Targets - 151
Catches - 80  (catch rate 53%)

Moncreif:
Targets: 105
Catches - 64 (catch rate 61%)

So - yes - this stuff affects the way we view Moncrief's production to a degree. 
He didn't achieve the yards per catch (11.5 vs 17.5) or TDs that Robinson did in 2015, but he had T.Y Hilton ahead of him in the game plan and a sketchy QB situation of his own to deal with. 

It will really be interesting to see what type of production he's able to muster with a (hopefully) big run game, a cluster of speedy receivers to compliment him, and a prove-it deal he'll certainly want to parlay into something greater. 

Call me crazy - but I feel good about the kid if he stays healthy. *knocks on wooden desk vehemently*
He doesn't have to even have a 1000 yard season. He just has to take advantage of his opportunities - which are almost certain to be FAR fewer than Robinson's 2015 season of 151 targets.  

How many drive ending third down incompletions can you look back on from 2017 when you thought "Man, if we had A-Rob right there he might have gotten us those 8 yards with a quick-in, a comeback, or even a sideline jump-ball." 

That's 2/3 of Moncrief's job 1n 2018. Be there as another option to convert those plays. An option we missed in 2017.  The other 1/3 involves his speed to get deep in play action, IMO. (Even if he's just clearing space underneath.)

My apologies for imprecision, but I was actually referring to having other viable WRs and TEs to take coverage (and passes) away from him.  Not necessarily talking about the actual number of passes thrown his way.

But your analysis nevertheless sheds more light on things.

I felt that the Colts got the better guy the day he was drafted, regardless of when he was drafted. I thought he looked like a better receiver in blue than our guy did in teal. That opinion was made before he joined our team. He was seen as the better draft prospect and fell to the Colts. Why did he fall? Not sure I've seen anyone tackle that question, but I do believe he was only 19 when drafted and came out a year early.

Interesting thing about opinions, is that they vary (by definition.) I'll eat my crow if I'll have to change mine. I'd expect the humble return in kind should he show out. I'm completely fine if some aren't convinced. I don't feel compelled that you must share my opinion or that I have any obligation to convince anyone else. You're free to have any opinion you like. I respect folks opinions.

(04-05-2018, 10:47 AM)pirkster Wrote: [ -> ]I felt that the Colts got the better guy the day he was drafted, regardless of when he was drafted.  I thought he looked like a better receiver in blue than our guy did in teal.  That opinion was made before he joined our team.  He was seen as the better draft prospect and fell to the Colts.  Why did he fall?  Not sure I've seen anyone tackle that question, but I do believe he was only 19 when drafted and came out a year early.

Interesting thing about opinions, is that they vary (by definition.)  I'll eat my crow if I'll have to change mine.  I'd expect the humble return in kind should he show out.  I'm completely fine if some aren't convinced.  I don't feel compelled that you must share my opinion or that I have any obligation to convince anyone else.  You're free to have any opinion you like.  I respect folks opinions.

I liked Moncrief that year.  Not bashing the player...even now.

I just didn't see how the scouting reports you cited were persuasive within this context.  Hopefully Moncrief will remain healthy and thrive under McCardell's coaching.  He seems to have the tools for success.

(04-05-2018, 10:55 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-05-2018, 10:47 AM)pirkster Wrote: [ -> ]I felt that the Colts got the better guy the day he was drafted, regardless of when he was drafted.  I thought he looked like a better receiver in blue than our guy did in teal.  That opinion was made before he joined our team.  He was seen as the better draft prospect and fell to the Colts.  Why did he fall?  Not sure I've seen anyone tackle that question, but I do believe he was only 19 when drafted and came out a year early.

Interesting thing about opinions, is that they vary (by definition.)  I'll eat my crow if I'll have to change mine.  I'd expect the humble return in kind should he show out.  I'm completely fine if some aren't convinced.  I don't feel compelled that you must share my opinion or that I have any obligation to convince anyone else.  You're free to have any opinion you like.  I respect folks opinions.

I liked Moncrief that year.  Not bashing the player...even now.

I just didn't see how the scouting reports you cited were persuasive within this context.  Hopefully Moncrief will remain healthy and thrive under McCardell's coaching.  He seems to have the tools for success.

I actually like Moncreif as well but up until this point, he has shown absolutely nothing to prove that he's better than ARob.

(04-05-2018, 11:07 AM)Cleatwood Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-05-2018, 10:55 AM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]I liked Moncrief that year.  Not bashing the player...even now.

I just didn't see how the scouting reports you cited were persuasive within this context.  Hopefully Moncrief will remain healthy and thrive under McCardell's coaching.  He seems to have the tools for success.

I actually like Moncreif as well but up until this point, he has shown absolutely nothing to prove that he's better than ARob.

This in a nutshell.

If you all feel so.  I always felt we've overrated ARob for 2015 as Jags fans, and used the "Jaguars don't get credit from the media because we're small market and not winning/not popular" to amplify that sentiment.

I was ready to jump on board in 2017, but he wasn't able to sway me due to not being able to play.  I wish him well and hope he has no setbacks on his recovery.  I still think that will impact his productivity in 2018.

(04-05-2018, 10:47 AM)pirkster Wrote: [ -> ]I felt that the Colts got the better guy the day he was drafted, regardless of when he was drafted.  I thought he looked like a better receiver in blue than our guy did in teal.  That opinion was made before he joined our team.  He was seen as the better draft prospect and fell to the Colts.  Why did he fall?  Not sure I've seen anyone tackle that question, but I do believe he was only 19 when drafted and came out a year early.

Interesting thing about opinions, is that they vary (by definition.)  I'll eat my crow if I'll have to change mine.  I'd expect the humble return in kind should he show out.  I'm completely fine if some aren't convinced.  I don't feel compelled that you must share my opinion or that I have any obligation to convince anyone else.  You're free to have any opinion you like.  I respect folks opinions.

I don't think Moncrief was universally seen as a better draft prospect though. A lot of his hype in the draft world came post combine.     

Second paragraph is all a given. Nobody's trying to force your to change an opinion, just debating and contrasting what we all think.

(04-05-2018, 10:47 AM)pirkster Wrote: [ -> ]I felt that the Colts got the better guy the day he was drafted, regardless of when he was drafted. I thought he looked like a better receiver in blue than our guy did in teal. That opinion was made before he joined our team. He was seen as the better draft prospect and fell to the Colts. Why did he fall? Not sure I've seen anyone tackle that question, but I do believe he was only 19 when drafted and came out a year early.

Interesting thing about opinions, is that they vary (by definition.) I'll eat my crow if I'll have to change mine. I'd expect the humble return in kind should he show out. I'm completely fine if some aren't convinced. I don't feel compelled that you must share my opinion or that I have any obligation to convince anyone else. You're free to have any opinion you like. I respect folks opinions.

(04-05-2018, 12:58 PM)pirkster Wrote: [ -> ]If you all feel so.  I always felt we've overrated ARob for 2015 as Jags fans, and used the "Jaguars don't get credit from the media because we're small market and not winning/not popular" to amplify that sentiment.

I was ready to jump on board in 2017, but he wasn't able to sway me due to not being able to play.  I wish him well and hope he has no setbacks on his recovery.  I still think that will impact his productivity in 2018.

I find this amusing in light of your earlier quip about "facts not caring about our feelings."

By nearly every objective measure, Robinson has been the better player.

He was drafted a full round higher than Moncrief.

He has more catches for more yards and more TDs and more starts over the same time period despite missing virtually all of 2017.

He has more post season awards (1 Pro Bowl to 0 for Moncrief).

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/p...biAl02.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/p...ncDo00.htm

I'm not sure what objective factual criteria you are using to advance the argument that Moncrief is better than Robinson.

(04-05-2018, 01:21 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-05-2018, 10:47 AM)pirkster Wrote: [ -> ]I felt that the Colts got the better guy the day he was drafted, regardless of when he was drafted.  I thought he looked like a better receiver in blue than our guy did in teal.  That opinion was made before he joined our team.  He was seen as the better draft prospect and fell to the Colts.  Why did he fall?  Not sure I've seen anyone tackle that question, but I do believe he was only 19 when drafted and came out a year early.

Interesting thing about opinions, is that they vary (by definition.)  I'll eat my crow if I'll have to change mine.  I'd expect the humble return in kind should he show out.  I'm completely fine if some aren't convinced.  I don't feel compelled that you must share my opinion or that I have any obligation to convince anyone else.  You're free to have any opinion you like.  I respect folks opinions.

(04-05-2018, 12:58 PM)pirkster Wrote: [ -> ]If you all feel so.  I always felt we've overrated ARob for 2015 as Jags fans, and used the "Jaguars don't get credit from the media because we're small market and not winning/not popular" to amplify that sentiment.

I was ready to jump on board in 2017, but he wasn't able to sway me due to not being able to play.  I wish him well and hope he has no setbacks on his recovery.  I still think that will impact his productivity in 2018.

I find this amusing in light of your earlier quip about "facts not caring about our feelings."

By nearly every objective measure, Robinson has been the better player.

He was drafted a full round higher than Moncrief.

He has more catches for more yards and more TDs and more starts over the same time period despite missing virtually all of 2017.

He has more post season awards (1 Pro Bowl to 0 for Moncrief).

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/p...biAl02.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/p...ncDo00.htm

I'm not sure what objective factual criteria you are using to advance the argument that Moncrief is better than Robinson.

I was talking about his draft grade.  Opinions are not facts, though they are (hopefully) formed by facts.  I get that you disagree with my opinion.  I understand it may not be a popular one to Jaguar fans.

(04-05-2018, 02:16 PM)pirkster Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-05-2018, 01:21 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]I find this amusing in light of your earlier quip about "facts not caring about our feelings."

By nearly every objective measure, Robinson has been the better player.

He was drafted a full round higher than Moncrief.

He has more catches for more yards and more TDs and more starts over the same time period despite missing virtually all of 2017.

He has more post season awards (1 Pro Bowl to 0 for Moncrief).

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/p...biAl02.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/p...ncDo00.htm

I'm not sure what objective factual criteria you are using to advance the argument that Moncrief is better than Robinson.

I was talking about his draft grade.  Opinions are not facts, though they are (hopefully) formed by facts.  I get that you disagree with my opinion.  I understand it may not be a popular one to Jaguar fans.

Actually I could see Jaguars fans going either way on the Robinson-Moncrief debate for various reasons, including but not limited to blind homerism.

(04-05-2018, 03:30 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-05-2018, 02:16 PM)pirkster Wrote: [ -> ]I was talking about his draft grade.  Opinions are not facts, though they are (hopefully) formed by facts.  I get that you disagree with my opinion.  I understand it may not be a popular one to Jaguar fans.

Actually I could see Jaguars fans going either way on the Robinson-Moncrief debate for various reasons, including but not limited to blind homerism.

I can completely understand why few Jaguar fans would be sold on Moncrief.  He's got a lot to prove this season.  First being, can he make it through and put those nagging injuries behind him like Lee (who some don't consider to be evolving beyond his injury riddled self or taking a next step, either.)

(04-05-2018, 03:52 PM)pirkster Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-05-2018, 03:30 PM)Bullseye Wrote: [ -> ]Actually I could see Jaguars fans going either way on the Robinson-Moncrief debate for various reasons, including but not limited to blind homerism.

I can completely understand why few Jaguar fans would be sold on Moncrief.  He's got a lot to prove this season.  First being, can he make it through and put those nagging injuries behind him like Lee (who some don't consider to be evolving beyond his injury riddled self or taking a next step, either.)

Outside of being a QB, how many players greatly improve after their 4th or 5th season? Lee is who he is. A guy who has suspect hands, is a good run blocker and not a deep threat.

I think Lee has gotten better while still being an average receiver.

(04-05-2018, 06:47 PM)Cleatwood Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-05-2018, 03:52 PM)pirkster Wrote: [ -> ]I can completely understand why few Jaguar fans would be sold on Moncrief.  He's got a lot to prove this season.  First being, can he make it through and put those nagging injuries behind him like Lee (who some don't consider to be evolving beyond his injury riddled self or taking a next step, either.)

Outside of being a QB, how many players greatly improve after their 4th or 5th season? Lee is who he is. A guy who has suspect hands, is a good run blocker and not a deep threat.

What's he's improving most on are two things: health and perception.

His hands aren't as reliable as you'd like for sure.  But just being able to be on the field has improved his contribution/productivity, and the perception of his talent as a result.

Moncrief has that same opportunity.  His is a one and done deal if he doesn't.  That's very team friendly.  If he does blow up it could be a repeat of ARob and he takes a check from someone else beginning in 2019.

Arob himself will be going though a "prove it" year his return season, proving first that the knee will hold for the entire season and second: to show he can be the guy he looked to be growing into in 2017 prior to it.

Jimmy Smith didn't become Jimmy Smith until four years after his rookie season in Dallas.  So yeah, injuries early in your career can keep you from getting the playing time and experience you need to become the player you're capable of being.

I'm sure Jaguar fans will be watching all three very closely this season.

(04-05-2018, 06:47 PM)Cleatwood Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-05-2018, 03:52 PM)pirkster Wrote: [ -> ]I can completely understand why few Jaguar fans would be sold on Moncrief.  He's got a lot to prove this season.  First being, can he make it through and put those nagging injuries behind him like Lee (who some don't consider to be evolving beyond his injury riddled self or taking a next step, either.)

Outside of being a QB, how many players greatly improve after their 4th or 5th season? Lee is who he is. A guy who has suspect hands, is a good run blocker and not a deep threat.

I know I'm the annoying Marqise Lee apologist around here, but this take on Lee is a bit off the mark. Sure he doesn't have the best hands but he has  only recorded one season of poor drop percentage. 
He has also definitely shown the ability to be a deep threat but it was largely wasted on Bortles' inability to connect with him during his first few seasons. Bortles clearly had a tough time altering the way he "lead" Hurns and A-rob to match Lee's greater speed in 2014/2015. It was a hot topic briefly on this board during that  span actually.  Some of that is  on Lee's tracking skils - but most of it was on Blake's short or poorly timed throws. 

I don't expect Lee to become some major deep threat in this offense with all the young and fast guys on the roster but writing off his ability to get open on vertical routes just tells me you didn't watch very closely in his early years with the team. There were many instances when he ran past defenders only to either be ignored or under thrown. 

Lee rant over. 
Carry on.

(04-05-2018, 07:23 PM)pirkster Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-05-2018, 06:47 PM)Cleatwood Wrote: [ -> ]Outside of being a QB, how many players greatly improve after their 4th or 5th season? Lee is who he is. A guy who has suspect hands, is a good run blocker and not a deep threat.

What's he's improving most on are two things: health and perception.

His hands aren't as reliable as you'd like for sure.  But just being able to be on the field has improved his contribution/productivity, and the perception of his talent as a result.

Moncrief has that same opportunity.  His is a one and done deal if he doesn't.  That's very team friendly.  If he does blow up it could be a repeat of ARob and he takes a check from someone else beginning in 2019.

Arob himself will be going though a "prove it" year his return season, proving first that the knee will hold for the entire season and second: to show he can be the guy he looked to be growing into in 2017 prior to it.

Jimmy Smith didn't become Jimmy Smith until four years after his rookie season in Dallas.  So yeah, injuries early in your career can keep you from getting the playing time and experience you need to become the player you're capable of being.

I'm sure Jaguar fans will be watching all three very closely this season.

 I don't know if I would call 10 million dollars team friendly but your point is true.

We are all hoping this WR group can contribute and make big plays. I'm highest on Cole and Westbrook. They just seem to make more plays than Moncreif and Lee. If the Jags can somehow add Gesicki, Hurst or Goedert, then you're talking about a pretty good young core of pass catchers.

LOL at people claiming to be fans carrying a torch for a player on another team. Jags "fans." LOL

(04-06-2018, 08:58 AM)Setsuna00 Wrote: [ -> ]LOL at people claiming to be fans carrying a torch for a player on another team. Jags "fans." LOL

You know you still have that Tyler Bray poster on your wall. Don't lie.

(04-06-2018, 09:51 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-06-2018, 08:58 AM)Setsuna00 Wrote: [ -> ]LOL at people claiming to be fans carrying a torch for a player on another team. Jags "fans." LOL

You know you still have that Tyler Bray poster on your wall. Don't lie.

You know it buddy!