Quote:I didn't ignore them, I provided counterexamples of why projections are meaningless. No one attempted to demonstrate in a principled way how they can become meaningful, or how to put the stats into the appropriate context. It's just, well these numbers of all times greats are similar to a projection (something that hasn't happened yet) so he must be on the same trajectory and you're an idiot if you disagree. I never deflected points or purposely turned the focus of the argument, its always them who resort to personal attacks.
Yeah I agree that some posters get to the point where they just want to attack you because they dont like you for what you post. Thats dumb for sure. However, for me its just something that irks me when theres a poster like you or rocdee that literally will never post anything about the team that isnt negative. I could be wrong about you to some degree because you at least try to add some thought, but rocdee is literally the most annoying person that just cries on every thread. As for the stat projections, I think thats just what people do to compare players. Bortles is currently on pace to be a top 5-7 QB in stats this year, and is playing a lot better than last year which gives the fans a lot of hope. I believe that while he probably wont end up with those stat projections, he is definitely playing a lot better. Theres still mistakes but if you throw the ball 50 times a game and have no running game its going to happen. He needs to lower the mistakes but he's on the right path.
Quote:I didn't ignore them, I provided counterexamples of why projections are meaningless. No one attempted to demonstrate in a principled way how they can become meaningful, or how to put the stats into the appropriate context. It's just, well these numbers of all times greats are similar to a projection (something that hasn't happened yet) so he must be on the same trajectory and you're an idiot if you disagree. I never deflected points or purposely turned the focus of the argument, its always them who resort to personal attacks.
Doesn't mean he is a hall of famer or next all time great. No one is saying that. The projections are to show he has been playing well as a 2nd year QB. And the projections are based on his play over 6 games in his 2nd year. You say he is mediocre or has a low ceiling or whatever you are arguing, but his stats SUGGEST otherwise. That is all. If he tanks and goes off projectory then opinions will change. All we can do is go off what we have seen. It is odd because you don't even realize you are arguing against yourself.
Quote:Because the team has only 1 win and Bortles has never lead the team to a road victory.
And yet he has over a 20 plus better QBR on the road vs. home proving once again you don't know what you're talking about and don't understand what the teams problem is: defense.
Quote:Yeah I agree that some posters get to the point where they just want to attack you because they dont like you for what you post. Thats dumb for sure. However, for me its just something that irks me when theres a poster like you or rocdee that literally will never post anything about the team that isnt negative. I could be wrong about you to some degree because you at least try to add some thought, but rocdee is literally the most annoying person that just cries on every thread. As for the stat projections, I think thats just what people do to compare players. Bortles is currently on pace to be a top 5-7 QB in stats this year, and is playing a lot better than last year which gives the fans a lot of hope. I believe that while he probably wont end up with those stat projections, he is definitely playing a lot better. Theres still mistakes but if you throw the ball 50 times a game and have no running game its going to happen. He needs to lower the mistakes but he's on the right path.
What's funny is that I never said he wasn't improving or getting better. The disagreement lies within what we all take his ceiling to be. In my opinion he hasn't shown to capable of being more than an average to slightly above average QB relative to the rest of the young players in the league and when contextualizing the stats in comparison to all time greats. I've cited my data and have done my best to clearly lay out my reasoning and how my examples support my position. Most just assume he is a lock to be a top 5 QB in the league but aren't willing to either point out the flaws in my reasoning, or clarify their own.
If Rocdee and Baconator had a baby it would be a black sphere of hate
Quote:What's funny is that I never said he wasn't improving or getting better. The disagreement lies within what we all take his ceiling to be. In my opinion he hasn't shown to capable of being more than an average to slightly above average QB relative to the rest of the young players in the league and when contextualizing the stats in comparison to all time greats. I've cited my data and have done my best to clearly lay out my reasoning and how my examples support my position. Most just assume he is a lock to be a top 5 QB in the league but aren't willing to either point out the flaws in my reasoning, or clarify their own.
More babbling drivel.......name one person who said Bortles is a lock to be top 5 QB? Your posts are nothing but terrible assumptions. You called Bortles a "backup type QB" while while putting up top 10 stats at age 23. It's borderline embarrassing on your part.
He might never be a top 5 QB but i do feel like he has the talent to be a top 5 QB if he can cut down on the mistakes. He has abilities that most QBs will never have. He has also proven to be a tough player that works harder than most. That work ethic will allow him to improve on his weaknesses. Honestly if you look at the league in a year or two I could definitely see it as a possibility that he is in the conversation as a top 5 QB. A lot of the "great" QBs are getting out of their prime and not nearly as many up and coming ones.
Quote:What's funny is that I never said he wasn't improving or getting better. The disagreement lies within what we all take his ceiling to be. In my opinion he hasn't shown to capable of being more than an average to slightly above average QB relative to the rest of the young players in the league and when contextualizing the stats in comparison to all time greats. I've cited my data and have done my best to clearly lay out my reasoning and how my examples support my position. Most just assume he is a lock to be a top 5 QB in the league but aren't willing to either point out the flaws in my reasoning, or clarify their own.
But his stats as a 2nd year QB don't back up your argument. His play now is on pace to surpass Andrew Luck by a good amount. How can his ceiling be that low when his play isn't suggesting that up to this point? If he cools down then opinions can and will change depending on stats and circumstances.
Who said he was a lock for top 5?
Quote:.
Who said he was a lock for top 5?
No one. He threw that crap in to try to win people over with his opinion that Bortles is a backup.
Quote:But his stats as a 2nd year QB don't back up your argument. His play now is on pace to surpass Andrew Luck by a good amount. How can his ceiling be that low when his play isn't suggesting that up to this point? If he cools down then opinions can and will change depending on stats and circumstances.
Who said he was a lock for top 5?
I'm not going to go through every thread and pick out examples, you can go through yourself. I promise you it isn't hard to find the delusion on this board. And again, the comparison their fails to contextualize the stats. I've done my part to cite actual statistics and correlated them with watching the games. Maybe to some the projection of stats means something, but I've yet to see one reason why.
Quote:I'm not going to go through every thread and pick out examples, you can go through yourself. I promise you it isn't hard to find the delusion on this board. And again, the comparison their fails to contextualize the stats. I've done my part to cite actual statistics and correlated them with watching the games. Maybe to some the projection of stats means something, but I've yet to see one reason why.
You haven't mentioned 1 statistic in any of your arguments. In fact, everything that was proven to you:
1) Bortles higher QBR with lead
2) Bortles higher QBR on road vs home
3) Bortles stats vs other starting QBs
Everything that was shown to you, contradicts your 1 opinion. You have no stats.
Quote:You haven't mentioned 1 statistic in any of your arguments. In fact, everything that was proven to you:
1) Bortles higher QBR with lead
2) Bortles higher QBR on road vs home
3) Bortles stats vs other starting QBs
Everything that was shown to you, contradicts your 1 opinion. You have no stats.
How about the fact that he only completes 40 % of his passes on 4.2 YPA when the game is within one score during the 4th quarter?
Quote:I'm not going to go through every thread and pick out examples, you can go through yourself. I promise you it isn't hard to find the delusion on this board. And again, the comparison their fails to contextualize the stats. I've done my part to cite actual statistics and correlated them with watching the games. Maybe to some the projection of stats means something, but I've yet to see one reason why.
You said most said lock for top 5. Shouldn't have to look very hard if that is the case. I'll just take that as you grossly overexaggerating.
Problem is you can't have a logical debate when the person you are debating is not logical nor comprehending and has the point go over his head over and over again. The average QB with a low ceiling is 6TH in yards and 5th in TD's 6 weeks into his 2nd year. Since this projection thing is too complicated for you let's focus on how the 2nd year is doing against his peers today in the now.
Quote:You said most said lock for top 5. Shouldn't have to look very hard if that is the case. I'll just take that as you grossly overexaggerating.
Problem is you can't have a logical debate when the person you are debating is not logical nor comprehending and has the point go over his head over and over again. The average QB with a low ceiling is 6TH in yards and 5th in TD's 6 weeks into his 2nd year. Since this projection thing is too complicated for you let's focus on how the 2nd year is doing against his peers today in the now.
When I have more time I'll go look through posting history for you. I think you might be surprised how delusional some people here are. You don't have to result to insulting my intelligence. You seem to be misunderstanding my point. Why should we take the projection of stats as a useful and meaningful indicator of a player's career trajectory when there are obvious examples of where it fails?
Quote:How about the fact that he only completes 40 % of his passes on 4.2 YPA when the game is within one score during the 4th quarter?
He's 23 years old!! He's gonna get The Most Improved Player Award by Pro Football Writers of America this year....book it.
Quote:He's 23 years old!! He's gonna get The Most Improved Player Award by Pro Football Writers of America this year....book it.
So lets make some bet, for fun. If he wins MIP, you can write my sig for me and choose my picture and I will keep it so long as I am a poster of this forum and vice-versa. Deal?
Has nothing to do with you intelligence. You aren't grasping it, that is just the reality of it. Through 6 games this year he has shown, in your estimation, to be average with a low ceiling. It is hard to figure out how you can come to that conclusion when your opinion is being based off those 6 games when those stats project him to surpass most QB's in the history of the NFL. Doesn't mean he will do that. But if your opinion is based on those 6 games and those 6 games show his per game average is on pace with all time best 2nd year QB seasons ever then your opinion loses credibility. I'm not using the projection to say he will do it or to confirm how great he is. I'm using it to form an argument and logically, how can an average QB with a low ceiling be on that kind of pace? Either it is an outlier and he will come back down to earth (which is entirely possible) or the average continues in that direction. If he is playing poorly and is average then he shouldn't be on that kind of pace. It goes against logic and shows you aren't being objective. Now you can bring up other arguments like pick sixes, turnovers, completion percentage and you may tell us what your eyes tell you, but lets not bring in the overall stats in the argument for average and low ceiling unless those stats overall start to work in your favor. They aren't right NOW. I'm not projecting what he will do. I'm stating what he has done and if he keeps on playing the way he has (which you said is average) then he will be probably be the only average QB in the history of the NFL with that stat line in his 2nd year. Again, that isn't logical or objective thinking. It is possible, but not logical.
Quote:When I have more time I'll go look through posting history for you. I think you might be surprised how delusional some people here are. You don't have to result to insulting my intelligence. You seem to be misunderstanding my point. Why should we take the projection of stats as a useful and meaningful indicator of a player's career trajectory when there are obvious examples of where it fails?
I'd love for you to quote anyone saying that he's a top 5 QB. You're reading comprehension leaves much to be desired. I've read this thread for a long time. I don't think anyone has said that BB5 is a top 5 QB.
I have said, as many have that the way BB5 is going, he'll be a top 10 QB very soon. You will read of people saying he's our franchise QB. But nothing regarding top 5 like you elude to.
Now if you want to say, BB5 is just OK and mediocre. Fine, I can live with that. Let's face it, we ain't winning games, so saying he's doing OK is a legitimate description. But to say he stinks (which you are now claiming you never have) is something some folks have said that is just downright dumb.
You don't throw the number of TDs for the amount of yards he's thrown and be considered a back QB. The offense, in terms of passing is legit. Does he leave some throws out there that need to be corrected? Yes. But most developing QBs do. Most developing QBs aren't throwing for the yards and the TD's BB5 is though.
So there is alot to look forward to.
I'd love for you to show me 3 MB posters that are claiming he's top 5 right now. You're not gonna find it. And, if you are as intelligent as you claim you are, you'll back off that stupid assertion you made.
Quote:Has nothing to do with you intelligence. You aren't grasping it, that is just the reality of it. Through 6 games this year he has shown, in your estimation, to be average with a low ceiling. It is hard to figure out how you can come to that conclusion when your opinion is being based off those 6 games when those stats project him to surpass most QB's in the history of the NFL. Doesn't mean he will do that. But if your opinion is based on those 6 games and those 6 games show his per game average is on pace with all time best 2nd year QB seasons ever then your opinion loses credibility. I'm not using the projection to say he will do it or to confirm how great he is. I'm using it to form an argument and logically, how can an average QB with a low ceiling be on that kind of pace? Either it is an outlier and he will come back down to earth (which is entirely possible) or the average continues in that direction. If he is playing poorly and is average then he shouldn't be on that kind of pace. It goes against logic and shows you aren't being objective. Now you can bring up other arguments like pick sixes, turnovers, completion percentage and you may tell us what your eyes tell you, but lets not bring in the overall stats in the argument for average and low ceiling unless those stats overall start to work in your favor. They aren't right NOW. I'm not projecting what he will do. I'm stating what he has done and if he keeps on playing the way he has (which you said is average) then he will be probably the only average QB in the history of the NFL with that stat line in his 2nd year. Again, that isn't logical or objective thinking. It is possible, but not logical.
Just answer my question, until you provide that bare level of theoretical justification you're just spinning the wheels. Maybe I would grasp it with my diminutive intelligence if you could only explain it to me in a clear and simple fashion.
Lol, I don't know how much simpler I can go. If Bortles plays above average in your estimation then he would probably be on a pace that may set records that would not be able to be reached by any other 2nd QB in the history of the game. As I mentioned in another thread. Take out the projection thingie since we are going in circles. Top 5 in TD's and top 6 in yards thrown. 32 starting QB's. That is as of today. No projections, just his play today. I'm just not sure how he has been playing average and has a low ceiling. Would top 2 in TD's and 1 in yards solidify that? No one is arguing his greatness. They are arguing the absurdity of your argument that he is average and is playing average and has a low ceiling.