Quote:So lets make some bet, for fun. If he wins MIP, you can write my sig for me and choose my picture and I will keep it so long as I am a poster of this forum and vice-versa. Deal?
No thanks. I don't need a bet when he's the best player on the team already. The stats after 6 games show he's a top 10 QB in the NFL AT THIS POINT. Will he stay there all year? Who knows but it doesn't matter today! Arrow is pointing straight up.....
Quote:Lol, I don't know how much simpler I can go. If Bortles plays above average in your estimation then he would probably be on a pace that may set records that would not be able to be reached by any other 2nd QB in the history of the game. As I mentioned in another thread. Take out the projection thingie since we are going in circles. Top 5 in TD's and top 6 in yards thrown. 32 starting QB's. That is as of today. No projections, just his play today. I'm just not sure how he has been playing average and has a low ceiling. Would top 2 in TD's and 1 in yards solidify that? No one is arguing his greatness. They are arguing the absurdity of your argument that he is average and is playing average and has a low ceiling.
Just answer the question generally. Its not specific to any one player. Why should we take the projection of stats as a useful and meaningful indicator of a player's career trajectory when there are obvious examples of where it fails?
baconator, I've already answered your question. You are arguing something I am not. Projections are just that. Sometimes their right and sometimes their wrong. Sometimes player take 5 years to break out and sometimes they do it in the first year. Your logic is what is failing here. In order to answer your question, I need you to understand the argument. If you would like to play, please answer a series of questions.
Based on Bortles 6 games this year, do you think he is playing like Blaine Bortles, poorly, below average, average, above average, good, great, elite?
Based on Bortles 6 game this year is his ceiling at the floor, below average ceiling, average ceiling, above average ceiling, good ceiling, great ceiling or elite ceiling?
I have more questions, but will need those answers first.
Quote:baconator, I've already answered your question. You are arguing something I am not. Projections are just that. Sometimes their right and sometimes their wrong. Sometimes player take 5 years to break out and sometimes they do it in the first year. Your logic is what is failing here. In order to answer your question, I need you to understand the argument. If you would like to play, please answer a series of questions.
Based on Bortles 6 games this year, do you think he is playing like Blaine Bortles, poorly, below average, average, above average, good, great, elite?
Based on Bortles 6 game this year is his ceiling at the floor, below average ceiling, average ceiling, above average ceiling, good ceiling, great ceiling or elite ceiling?
I have more questions, but will need those answers first.
Based on his situational performance (e.g., in the meaningful moments of close games), the context of how his statistics have been produced (e.g., garbage time blowouts against some of the worst defenses in the NFL), and what he has shown in both his rookie and 2nd year relative to all other 1st and 2nd year QBs currently in the league (rookie QBs this year are having instant impacts that Bortles never had, and the Qb taken in the 2nd round of his same class has outperformed him since day 1). Those are what I'm basing my opinions on. Has he been improving? Of course, he is drastically better than he was once he started. But he still makes poor decisions, still is wildly inaccurate, still gets erratic in the pocket, and still collapses when the team needs him most. \
To you actual questions, he is playing as a average NFL starter. His floor is one of the worst QBs in the league (turnover prone, inaccurate, crumbles under pressure), and his ceiling is an above average starter with maybe a couple pro bowl appearances.
The only thing I put on Bortles is the goal line pick before half. Other than that the other 2 other picks were forced because our defense can't do jack.
Quote:Based on his situational performance (e.g., in the meaningful moments of close games), the context of how his statistics have been produced (e.g., garbage time blowouts against some of the worst defenses in the NFL), and what he has shown in both his rookie and 2nd year relative to all other 1st and 2nd year QBs currently in the league (rookie QBs this year are having instant impacts that Bortles never had, and the Qb taken in the 2nd round of his same class has outperformed him since day 1). Those are what I'm basing my opinions on. Has he been improving? Of course, he is drastically better than he was once he started. But he still makes poor decisions, still is wildly inaccurate, still gets erratic in the pocket, and still collapses when the team needs him most. \
To you actual questions, he is playing as a average NFL starter. His floor is one of the worst QBs in the league (turnover prone, inaccurate, crumbles under pressure), and his ceiling is an above average starter with maybe a couple pro bowl appearances.
Bortles was throwing to rookie WR's and was sacked I believe 55 times in 14 games. You can focus on the 1st year and what other QB's are doing in their first year, but I'm talking about where Bortles is at now. As you said he drastically improved. There is reason to believe he will keep on improving. He makes poor decisions, but less frequent. He is inaccurate at times. Not wildly. Sometimes that is on him and other times it is on the line. He isn't erratic in the pocket. That is one of his biggest strengths. There were a few times he threw off back foot that he shouldn't have last week. We saw that a lot more last year. As a 2nd year QB, you hope for improvement and he has made big improvements. We won the game with a field goal in miami and he gave us two opportunities to beat Indy. He had an awful pic six first game against carolina. He threw 4 TD's and 1 INT against bucs so not sure how he collapsed in that game. He can't be a dlinemen and stop Dougy Fresh. The pic before half against texans can't happen and there was miscommunication (confirmed) with Julius and him on the pic six. No confirmation on if Julius or Bortles made the wrong read.
So in 6 games this year he is playing as an average NFL starter? I'm just making sure I don't misunderstand you.
Quote:Most? Top 5? I don't think is necessarily.the case, and you'd be hard stretched to find more than a couple posters saying as much. Many of us feel he has what it takes to lead the Jaguars to the Super Bowl, and really that's all that matters. At this point Bortles is average to slightly below average as starting qbs in this league go. I'd like to see him reach a solid average to slightly above average level by season's end. How high is his ceiling? That's hard to say. I'd say a game on par with Ben Roethlisberger is his realistic ceiling, but he may never quite measure up. He may never even make a Pro Bowl, but I think he has what it takes to beat out Brunell, for instance, as the best qb this team has ever had.
Bortles ceiling is MUCH higher. Big Ben most TDs ever was 32. Bortles on pace for 34.5 at age 23.
We definitely need a RB but I would draft 7 defensive players in this draft
Quote:Let's not go overboard now as there are more to qb stats than yards and TDs. Derek Carr might be borderline top 10 (easy top 15). Blake is borderline top 15 (easy top 20). Now I'm just as sick of Baconator as the rest of you, but at the same time there are some on here getting a tad too giddy.
then explain to me how Derek Carr in the top 10 quarterback and what is he doing that's so much better than blake?
Quote:Based on his situational performance (e.g., in the meaningful moments of close games), the context of how his statistics have been produced (e.g., garbage time blowouts against some of the worst defenses in the NFL), and what he has shown in both his rookie and 2nd year relative to all other 1st and 2nd year QBs currently in the league (rookie QBs this year are having instant impacts that Bortles never had, and the Qb taken in the 2nd round of his same class has outperformed him since day 1). Those are what I'm basing my opinions on. Has he been improving? Of course, he is drastically better than he was once he started. But he still makes poor decisions, still is wildly inaccurate, still gets erratic in the pocket, and still collapses when the team needs him most. \
To you actual questions, he is playing as a average NFL starter. His floor is one of the worst QBs in the league (turnover prone, inaccurate, crumbles under pressure), and his ceiling is an above average starter with maybe a couple pro bowl appearances.
There you go talking in circles again! Mariota gets a pass being a rookie, yet Bortles rookie year figures into your projections.
I would draft all D and grab RB in free agency. Some decent free agent RBs out there.... Chris ivory, khiry robinson, Matt forte, Doug Martin, Lamar Miller, James Starks, Ronnie Hillman, CJ Anderson
Quote:Have you had chance to watch Derek this year? Dude's on fire.
I watched him play this year and I don't think he doing no better than what blake doing with his team and he has a better team around him.
Quote:Let's not go overboard now as there are more to qb stats than yards and TDs. Derek Carr might be borderline top 10 (easy top 15). Blake is borderline top 15 (easy top 20). Now I'm just as sick of Baconator as the rest of you, but at the same time there are some on here getting a tad too giddy.
He is playing statistically in that range, but at the same time it is 6 games. The reason I'm optimistic is he is doing so with no running game and bad offensive line. While I want to win of course, it is less of a factor in judging him for this year because the D is really, really bad and in disarray. He is both responsible for keeping us in the game against the texans and putting it out of range. I would like to see him not do the boneheaded plays when there is no reason for it. Overall, he has made big strides. If he limits pick sixes which isn't a given and boneheaded plays (understand the situation that 3 points before half is still a victory in a close game) he will win more games and with a solid D, can do some big things for this team and city. Of course, that is under the assumption that he continues to improve.
Quote:There you go talking in circles again! Mariota gets a pass being a rookie, yet Bortles rookie year figures into your projections.
You can't keep all these guidelines together when you have to keep changing them to support your argument.