Justin Rogers, one of the Lions beat writers from the MLive.Com website wrote the following today in his weekly Power Rankings article. IMO, Rogers is one of the best Lions beat writers and ranks pretty high up overall in terms of NFL beat writers. Take his thoughts anyway you want. I'm just posting this for information purposes, which provides the perspective of a NFL beat writer who got to watch Gus Bradley and his staff up close this past January:
http://www.mlive.com/lions/index.ssf/201..._14_2.html
31. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11)
I was really impressed with Gus Bradley's staff watching them work with players at the Senior Bowl last year, but the Jaguars still lack talent on both sides of the ball. (Last week: 30)
I think a lot of the problem with this board is that so many people watch very little non-Jaguars football. They have no frame of reference to see just how far behind every other team the Jaguars are. They think Bortles is fine because he's being compared to Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne, not actual functional NFL quarterbacks. They really think this team can just develop another year, patch in a couple of offensive linemen and everything will be fine.
Quote:I too was impressed by his coaching in the Senior Bowl.
I've been less impressed at his handling of the team this year. Poor play design (especially in short yardage situations), bad time management, deciding on starters and then cutting them a few weeks later, six blocked kicks/punts, decline in play by most of the 2013 draft class ... Some of that is the responsibility of the coordinators and assistants, but Bradley chose them.
I wasn't expecting much from the team this year, my preseason prediction was 5-11. I was expecting improvement. Instead, the Jags are setting NFL all-time records for ineptitude this year. There's a huge gap between a young team needing another year to develop and the total disgrace that we see just about every week.
As far as Fisch, I was willing to give him another year. Since the offense was loaded with rookies I thought it was impossible to evaluate him. But after he blatantly lost confidence in Bortles and handcuffed him in the Indy game, it became clear that Fisch is not right for the job. The problem is, as others have pointed out, if Fisch is replaced then the OC may need to be replaced again if Bradley is canned in 2015. It looks to me like we're stuck with the whole staff for another year.
My pre-season prediction for the Jaguars was even a little higher. I thought 6 or 7 wins was most likely and even thought there was a realistic scenario they would win 8 games. With 9 wins not out of the question if everything broke right. I didn't envision them to be 2-11. I was impressed by what I saw from a number of facets of the Jaguars in their pre-season games in Chicago and Detroit and it influenced my prediction for the team more than it should have.
Having said all of this, the question becomes how much of the problems are because of youth and/ or lack of talent and how much are because of coaching? One positive for the Jaguars is despite their youth, they have committed the least amount of penalties in the NFL through 13 games. But overall, at the very least a total evaluation needs to be made by Dave Caldwell.
If Gus Bradley is retained in 2015 and the team goes 5-11 or worse, Caldwell could easily be shown the door with Bradley. Yet, in the end, my gut feeling is Caldwell prefers to retain Bradley. Coaching staff changes likely will occur. More than anything though, I think the Jaguars are going to be major players in Free Agency. Expectations are going to be higher for the Jaguars from an ownership and front office perspective than they have been in a number of years. Noticeably better results will be expected. If they occur under Bradley, a contract extension might occur. If they don't occur, I can't imagine him being the team's HC in 2016.
Quote: My pre-season prediction for the Jaguars was even a little higher. I thought 6 or 7 wins was most likely and even thought there was a realistic scenario they would win 8 games. With 9 wins not out of the question if everything broke right. I didn't envision them to be 2-11. I was impressed by what I saw from a number of facets of the Jaguars in their pre-season games in Chicago and Detroit and it influenced my prediction for the team more than it should have.
Having said all of this, the question becomes how much of the problems are because of youth and/ or lack of talent and how much are because of coaching? One positive for the Jaguars is despite their youth, they have committed the least amount of penalties in the NFL through 13 games. But overall, at the very least a total evaluation needs to be made by Dave Caldwell.
If Gus Bradley is retained in 2015 and the team goes 5-11 or worse, Caldwell could easily be shown the door with Bradley. Yet, in the end, my gut feeling is Caldwell prefers to retain Bradley. Coaching staff changes likely will occur. More than anything though, I think the Jaguars are going to be major players in Free Agency. Expectations are going to be higher for the Jaguars from an ownership and front office perspective than they have been in a number of years. Noticeably better results will be expected. If they occur under Bradley, a contract extension might occur. If they don't occur, I can't imagine him being the team's HC in 2016.
Well said...in a way right now it's "In Caldwell we trust." So far Caldwell has shown me that he looks like a GM on the rise. Bradley hasn't shown me he's a HC on the rise and like you say, if Caldwell sticks with him a 3rd year then I do agree than Khan should probably show them both the door.
I do believe that if Caldwell is going to be a top GM and he's not convinced of Bradley then I think he will replace him this off season. It'll be interesting to see what does or does not happen after the season.
Hypothetically, I just don't see how Khan allows Bradley to stay another year with the team going 4-12 and then possibly 2-14 or 3-13 this season under Bradley. Khan would look pretty dumb going 5-11, 2-14, 3-13 his first 3 seasons and not making changes. If Bradley goes 5-11 next season does that define success (4-12, 3-13, 5-11)? It's not like the Jags have been knocking on the door of close wins every week this season. That would be a tough, tough sell.
Quote: My pre-season prediction for the Jaguars was even a little higher. I thought 6 or 7 wins was most likely and even thought there was a realistic scenario they would win 8 games. With 9 wins not out of the question if everything broke right. I didn't envision them to be 2-11. I was impressed by what I saw from a number of facets of the Jaguars in their pre-season games in Chicago and Detroit and it influenced my prediction for the team more than it should have.
Having said all of this, the question becomes how much of the problems are because of youth and/ or lack of talent and how much are because of coaching? One positive for the Jaguars is despite their youth, they have committed the least amount of penalties in the NFL through 13 games. But overall, at the very least a total evaluation needs to be made by Dave Caldwell.
If Gus Bradley is retained in 2015 and the team goes 5-11 or worse, Caldwell could easily be shown the door with Bradley. Yet, in the end, my gut feeling is Caldwell prefers to retain Bradley. Coaching staff changes likely will occur. More than anything though, I think the Jaguars are going to be major players in Free Agency. Expectations are going to be higher for the Jaguars from an ownership and front office perspective than they have been in a number of years. Noticeably better results will be expected. If they occur under Bradley, a contract extension might occur. If they don't occur, I can't imagine him being the team's HC in 2016.
I tend to agree with most of this post, although in most cases (not all) a GM usually gets a chance to hire 2 coaches especially if the talent is there. I have a feeling that this offseason Caldwell is going to attempt to bring in enough talent for Gus to show whether or not he's the guy and that the young players are developing enough for this team to win games. I think Caldwell's job hinges more on whether or not Bortles pans out. If the team is still losing next year but Bortles is shining Gus will probably be gone. If the team is getting blown out and Bortles is stinking it up, then there's a very good possibility both of them could be gone next year and once again we're back to square one.
Quote:Well said...in a way right now it's "In Caldwell we trust." So far Caldwell has shown me that he looks like a GM on the rise. Bradley hasn't shown me he's a HC on the rise and like you say, if Caldwell sticks with him a 3rd year then I do agree than Khan should probably show them both the door.
I do believe that if Caldwell is going to be a top GM and he's not convinced of Bradley then I think he will replace him this off season. It'll be interesting to see what does or does not happen after the season.
Hypothetically, I just don't see how Khan allows Bradley to stay another year with the team going 4-12 and then possibly 2-14 or 3-13 this season under Bradley. Khan would look pretty dumb going 5-11, 2-14, 3-13 his first 3 seasons and not making changes. If Bradley goes 5-11 next season does that define success (4-12, 3-13, 5-11)? It's not like the Jags have been knocking on the door of close wins every week this season. That would be a tough, tough sell.
Thanks.
Unless the Jaguars are hit with injuries that derail the 2015 season to the extent that almost no Head Coach can overcome, I can't imagine a realistic scenario in which Gus Bradley is back in 2016 if the team doesn't win at least 6 games in 2015. Even 6 wins might not be enough to satisfy Shad Khan.
Whether Shad Khan gives Gus Bradley the opportunity to continue as HC for even the 2015 season remains to be seen. If Khan believes the Jaguars should have a higher win total this season and/ or being closer in more games, Khan might decide to make a change at HC even if Dave Caldwell disagrees.
If for discussion sake that Khan decides to make a 2015 HC change on his own or both Khan and Caldwell decide to make a change collectively, I think the top priority in terms of finding a new HC will be having someone in place at HC or on the staff that can come close to maximizing Blake Bortles' growth. One thing I am confident about regarding the Jaguars is Caldwell's future is riding on Bortles. If Bortles doesn't develop close to the way Caldwell envisioned when drafting him, Caldwell will be looking for work sooner than he hopes.
Blake Bortles has the physical tools to be a high caliber QB. The two questions on this end are whether he will have the type of coaching necessary to reach that level and whether he can overcome problems associated with playing as a rookie in a very adverse situation? Having the best possible coaching in place to develop Bortles increases the chances of Bortles answering the 2nd question in a positive manner for the player and team.
Quote:I tend to agree with most of this post, although in most cases (not all) a GM usually gets a chance to hire 2 coaches especially if the talent is there. I have a feeling that this offseason Caldwell is going to attempt to bring in enough talent for Gus to show whether or not he's the guy and that the young players are developing enough for this team to win games. I think Caldwell's job hinges more on whether or not Bortles pans out. If the team is still losing next year but Bortles is shining Gus will probably be gone. If the team is getting blown out and Bortles is stinking it up, then there's a very good possibility both of them could be gone next year and once again we're back to square one.
I agree to a large extent what you mentioned.
Most likely though, if Blake Bortles is shining, the Jaguars will win at least 6 games next season. Especially under the assumption we both agree with that plenty of talent will be added in the upcoming off-season.
If the Jaguars go 5-11 or worse next season, I think there's a good chance the QB play won't be good enough for one or more reasons. If that's the case, I think a new regime is a very realistic possibility. With the hope by Shad Khan that the new regime can come close to maximizing Blake Bortles' potential. Barring a career altering injury, I think Bortles will have at least two more seasons to demonstrate whether he's the long term solution.
Quote:My favourite thing about the Bradley hiring is that the other coaches interviewed were Greg Roman, Mel Tucker, and Keith Armstrong. Competence was never an option.
Funny how another year changes things. SF entire coaching staff will be dismantled, so the Roman miss wasn't really that big of a miss. Th SF fans are calling for him to be fired every day. The truth is that firing Gus right now would be a horrible business move. If fired the Jaguars HC job would be the least desirable in the whole NFL, also too many other places hiring new HCs this offseason (Chicago, SF, ATL, NYJ, NYG if Coughlin resigns, OAK, MIA.). All of those teams are gems compared to where we are right now. Who in their right mind would sign on after a team fired one coach after one season, and the next after two? Letting Gus and Dave finish out their 3-year plan sucks, but it's all we have. I hate having a crap team every season too! Right now though Gus is the best we can get.
Quote:I agree to a large extent what you mentioned.
Most likely though, if Blake Bortles is shining, the Jaguars will win at least 6 games next season. Especially under the assumption we both agree with that plenty of talent will be added in the upcoming off-season.
If the Jaguars go 5-11 or worse next season, I think there's a good chance the QB play won't be good enough for one or more reasons. If that's the case, I think a new regime is a very realistic possibility. With the hope by Shad Khan that the new regime can come close to maximizing Blake Bortles' potential. Barring a career altering injury, I think Bortles will have at least two more seasons to demonstrate whether he's the long term solution.
You mentioned in a previous thread how the Jags were the least penalized team in the league while being the youngest. I wasn't being sarcastic in my response. I find that very impressive and shows that the team is at least buying into the belief that if they pay attention to the smaller details, good things will eventually come. I think Khan knows the ramifications of firing a coach 2 years into a rebuild, so I think he will give Gus every opportunity for success next season. If he does fire Gus at the end of the season, I'll start to feel a little leary about how he's running the franchise. Firing Gus after 2 seasons with the way the roster has been sends a bad message to potential HCs and we will have officially become the Raiders of the East Coast. Even more so than we are now.
This team has several issues to deal with. The head coach is not among those issues.
Quote:You mentioned in a previous thread how the Jags were the least penalized team in the league while being the youngest. I wasn't being sarcastic in my response. I find that very impressive and shows that the team is at least buying into the belief that if they pay attention to the smaller details, good things will eventually come. I think Khan knows the ramifications of firing a coach 2 years into a rebuild, so I think he will give Gus every opportunity for success next season. If he does fire Gus at the end of the season, I'll start to feel a little leary about how he's running the franchise. Firing Gus after 2 seasons with the way the roster has been sends a bad message to potential HCs and we will have officially become the Raiders of the East Coast. Even more so than we are now.
I thought you made a great point in that other thread that you carried over to this thread as well. When I saw that Jaguars league leading least amount of penalties stat on Monday, I viewed it favorably. The perspective of the article overall was the problematic penalties that the Lions have had in a number of games this season and the focus HC Jim Caldwell is putting on trying to change the culture of high # of penalties that was a major part of the previous coaching staff. If the Lions were playing a better team than the Bucs, the penalties the other day could have been very costly. The fact that Gus Bradley has the Jaguars penalty situation in a great position already despite the youth and roster turnover is IMO something at the top of the list along with Bradley's people skills as the major selling points in why a solid case can be made that Bradley warrants another season on merit. Not just because he's a HC in a difficult rebuilding situation.
In addition to the Raiders, the Browns also come to mind as a model of instability in the last decade. You made another great point about the perception that's caused when you make change too often. Because of all of this that we both expressed, my gut feeling is that Gus Bradley should be given the opportunity to return in 2015. I think Dave Caldwell will see it this way as well, though that's far from certain. Dave Caldwell knows the Jaguars situation better than anyone and it's possible, not probable he will feel a HC change is necessary.
But even assuming Dave Caldwell feelsGus Bradley should return for season # 3, it's not a given by any means that Shad Khan will believe that's the case. Khan is finishing his 3rd season as Jaguars owner and very likely expected noticeably more wins at this stage when he bought the team in 2011. Being that Khan has a history of tremendous success in business, he might come to the conclusion that for one or more reasons, Bradley isn't showing the potential as a HC that Khan envisioned in the winter of 2013. It's hard for any of us to know what Khan is thinking about the state of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
My opinion/prediction on Bradley/Caldwell's tenure:
Bradley gets to coach the Jags in 2015. Only three epically horrible losses to end the season would change that. He'll need 6 wins or more in 2015 to stay beyond next season.
Caldwell is likely safe beyond that, but the performance of his picks (mainly Bortles - but others as well) will determine that more than the record.
No clue what may happen with the remaining coaching staff - but I don't expect tons of change.
I still believe youth and inexperience are behind the vast majority of mistakes being made on the field. The tide should begin turning back to shore on that problem next year. Finding two or three FA starters will help as will the maturation of the current young starters.
If Caldwell can field a competent FS in 2015 and Bortles, Lee and the Robinsons do what they're expected to do on offense, the pitchforks will be put back in the barn, IMO.
Quote:Three weeks away from the last game of Gus Bradley coaching the Jaguars.
Maybe it's his fault the players have not developed. Maybe it's not his fault and was just given bad players to develop.
Either way, a change is needed.
Today was a microcosm of Bradley's tenure here.
Missed tackles everywhere. Almost no pass rush. Dropped passes. Poor blocking.
The team literally does nothing well.
Gus Gone.
Smh. They let anyone start a thread.
TheSlinger --- Please don't tell me that the only reason I think Bortles is good is because I'm so used to seeing Gabbert & Henne at QB.
Thinking Bortles is good is perhaps what keeps my hope for the future alive on a day to day basis. I'm totally serious about this. I'd be so depressed if I could look into the future (3 years from now) and be told BB did not work out. Let me at least have HOPE. :thumbsup:
Quote:TheSlinger --- Please don't tell me that the only reason I think Bortles is good is because I'm so used to seeing Gabbert & Henne at QB.
Thinking Bortles is good is perhaps what keeps my hope for the future alive on a day to day basis. I'm totally serious about this. I'd be so depressed if I could look into the future (3 years from now) and be told BB did not work out. Let me at least have HOPE. :thumbsup:
I completely agree with this. Knowing that Bortles will only get better is perhaps the one thing that gives people hope. Colvin looks good and so do the young WRs but its all about the QB. Right now, if the playoffs started, the following QBs would be in it: Manning, Brady, Luck, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Stafford, Sanchez, Stanton, Wilson, Ryan, Rivers, Dalton.
QBs still in the hunt: Flacco,Romo, Tannehill, Smith
Although there are some outliers in there, the thing that is most in common with those teams is the QB.
Quote:In addition to the Raiders, the Browns also come to mind as a model of instability in the last decade. You made another great point about the perception that's caused when you make change too often.
OTOH, the 1990's Bengals stuck with their failed coaches for an average of 4 years. It didn't help their record or improve the league perception of them. Your Lions stuck with Fontes too long, and followed it up with Bobby Ross for four years. Marinelli got three full years. [Never underestimate the power of the] Schwartz got five. How did that work out?
The Browns stuck with Butch Davis and Crennel for four seasons each. It didn't help.
The Browns and Raiders changed coaches frequently because 1) they chose bad coaches to begin with, and 2) their personnel decisions were horrendous, especially in Oakland with Al Davis in charge. Look at the list of coaches for both teams since 2002. It's a list of unproven former NFL assistants (plus previously failed Norv Turner). Just like the Jags with unproven Bradley (plus previously failed Mularkey).
It's time for the Jags to hire someone with a proven winning NFL record. There's no guarantee, since even the best coach can only do so much with a bad roster. But it would give the Jags the best chance of turning this disaster around. Right now we have to hope that the roster is not the Jags problem, otherwise there's no hope at all.
Quote:TheSlinger --- Please don't tell me that the only reason I think Bortles is good is because I'm so used to seeing Gabbert & Henne at QB.
Thinking Bortles is good is perhaps what keeps my hope for the future alive on a day to day basis. I'm totally serious about this. I'd be so depressed if I could look into the future (3 years from now) and be told BB did not work out. Let me at least have HOPE. :thumbsup:
Blake reminds me of a young Bret Favre. Green bay let him throw it like 500 times his second year with them... his total TD's were lower than his INT's , but the following year he flipped his TD:INT ratio. Bortles is on pace to throw 500 times this year in less than a full season. :geek:
Quote:My opinion/prediction on Bradley/Caldwell's tenure:
Bradley gets to coach the Jags in 2015. Only three epically horrible losses to end the season would change that. He'll need 6 wins or more in 2015 to stay beyond next season.
I see this as well.
Also, I think a combination of missed evaluations (Henne, Brewster, Gerhart) and bad luck (Yarno, Doss) forced the offense to start and be coached by much less experience than they'd planned on. They were basically forced to trade any short term success on offense for long term growth.
On defense, where we had some veteran presence and continuity, I think the team actually progressed at about the level that anyone here suspected this year. It's a competitive unit with some developing young talent. I actually think this bodes well for the coaching staff, in regards to the outlook for next year.