(09-06-2017, 11:04 AM)JaguarsWoman Wrote: [ -> ] (09-06-2017, 09:30 AM)homebiscuit Wrote: [ -> ]Some forecast models are now showing Irma will miss Cuba and swing north before it gets to Florida. We may dodge a bullet on this one. It doesn't look good for the Carolinas, though.
"Some forecast models" tells me nobody really knows where Irma will go. So far I have seen no reason for people in the Carolinas to worry too much because the storm is headed for the Gulf.
Glad to see up to the minute updates from someone who hasn't seen an update in the last 2,480 minutes.
(09-06-2017, 12:26 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (09-06-2017, 12:12 PM)Kane Wrote: [ -> ]Irma will be bad for anyone who gets hit by her.
Right about now... I'm guessing right up the gut of Florida. Keys, Miami, Tampa... hammered on Saturday...
J-Ville will get some serious action into Sunday...
GA and SC will get what is left of her on Sunday evening Monday morning...
By Tuesday she'll be a Tropical Storm breaking up in the mountains...
I can be a Meteorologist too.
The eye is predicted to be still be south of Jacksonville (around Cape Canaveral) Monday morning.
(09-06-2017, 12:36 PM)Jagsfan4life9/28/82 Wrote: [ -> ] (09-06-2017, 12:26 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]The eye is predicted to be still be south of Jacksonville (around Cape Canaveral) Monday morning.
His timeline is way off. He has it impacting Tampa on Saturday, but it will just be approaching Florida on Sunday morning.
Not according to MY predicition... which at this point is just as good as ANY of ya'lls predictions...
that's all I'm saying...
Right now it looks like it will be taking almost the same track that Matthew took last year, and could be a strong CAT3 or a CAT4 hurricane as it passes off the coast. We saw what Matthew did to the coast between Crescent Beach and Jacksonville, and then the damage it caused in the Carolinas, and that was a weak CAT2 by the time it got to us. If this is a stronger version, we're in for a significant storm to deal with early next week. Living in an area where we have oaks that are 75-90 feet tall, and prone to falling over in winds like this, We are high ground, so I'm not worried about flooding, but we've got a water oak sitting about 15 feet from the front of our house that leans over it. It held up well for Matthew, but if we start seeing sustained winds above 75 mph here, odds are pretty good that some part of, or all of that tree will be on my roof. We lost 2 older oaks in our back yard last year, one of which simply snapped in half from the winds. I've still got more than a dozen trees in the back but only 2 threaten the house. I'm not too concerned about those trees since they have deeper root systems.
As far as predicting it will hit anywhere, it's impossible to say anything. Yesterday it was potentially going into the Keys, then curling back around in the Gulf and coming back across the state. Earlier today it was going right into Miami and splitting the state. We're still 5 days out and the cone is more than 200 miles wide. The hope is that it will continue to shift more to the east, and not track along the coastline as tightly as Matthew did.
Storms like this are certainly a boon for retail sales of things like water, batteries, canned goods, lumber, and other dry goods. I went and gassed up all my stuff, and ran the generator with a load to make sure everything is ready to go. We'll hunker down unless told to do otherwise. We were fortunate with Matthew to only lose power for a couple of days. There were areas around us that didn't get their power restored for a week, making cleanup difficult.
The projected track of this storm doesn't look good right now. At this point it's looking like another Mathew.
(09-06-2017, 11:53 AM)homebiscuit Wrote: [ -> ] (09-06-2017, 11:20 AM)Jagsfan4life9/28/82 Wrote: [ -> ]Nice work. First state nobody knows where Irma is going, then declare where Irma is going. Nobody but you, then?
Plus she says that it is headed towards a place that NO ONE is predicting.
Gotta keep your options open. She'd make a first-rate local meteorologist.
(09-06-2017, 12:46 PM)FBT Wrote: [ -> ]Right now it looks like it will be taking almost the same track that Matthew took last year, and could be a strong CAT3 or a CAT4 hurricane as it passes off the coast. We saw what Matthew did to the coast between Crescent Beach and Jacksonville, and then the damage it caused in the Carolinas, and that was a weak CAT2 by the time it got to us. If this is a stronger version, we're in for a significant storm to deal with early next week. Living in an area where we have oaks that are 75-90 feet tall, and prone to falling over in winds like this, We are high ground, so I'm not worried about flooding, but we've got a water oak sitting about 15 feet from the front of our house that leans over it. It held up well for Matthew, but if we start seeing sustained winds above 75 mph here, odds are pretty good that some part of, or all of that tree will be on my roof. We lost 2 older oaks in our back yard last year, one of which simply snapped in half from the winds. I've still got more than a dozen trees in the back but only 2 threaten the house. I'm not too concerned about those trees since they have deeper root systems.
As far as predicting it will hit anywhere, it's impossible to say anything. Yesterday it was potentially going into the Keys, then curling back around in the Gulf and coming back across the state. Earlier today it was going right into Miami and splitting the state. We're still 5 days out and the cone is more than 200 miles wide. The hope is that it will continue to shift more to the east, and not track along the coastline as tightly as Matthew did.
Storms like this are certainly a boon for retail sales of things like water, batteries, canned goods, lumber, and other dry goods. I went and gassed up all my stuff, and ran the generator with a load to make sure everything is ready to go. We'll hunker down unless told to do otherwise. We were fortunate with Matthew to only lose power for a couple of days. There were areas around us that didn't get their power restored for a week, making cleanup difficult.
If the tree falls on your house, do NOT use Big Ben's tree service. Had oak fall on rental property few weeks back and they charged 6K to get it out of there, and that didn't even include getting stump out, which was on neighbors property. Also, do NOT use Champion roofing for any roofing repairs or tarping. They billed the insurance company $2,500 to tarp a roof that included an hour of labor and it has been a fight ever since.
These companies will gouge the crap out of you in "emergency" situations. It is sad.
(09-06-2017, 12:26 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (09-06-2017, 12:12 PM)Kane Wrote: [ -> ]Irma will be bad for anyone who gets hit by her.
Right about now... I'm guessing right up the gut of Florida. Keys, Miami, Tampa... hammered on Saturday...
J-Ville will get some serious action into Sunday...
GA and SC will get what is left of her on Sunday evening Monday morning...
By Tuesday she'll be a Tropical Storm breaking up in the mountains...
I can be a Meteorologist too.
The eye is predicted to be still be south of Jacksonville (around Cape Canaveral) Monday morning.
High tides in Jacksonville on Monday will occur around Noon and around Midnight. If somebody would double check that, it would be helpful as I don't want to mislead anyone.
It would be ideal, relatively, if it came by at the 6 PM low tide timeframe.
(09-06-2017, 12:47 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: [ -> ]The projected track of this storm doesn't look good right now. At this point it's looking like another Mathew.
Only stronger. I ride A1A quite often on the motorcycle, and the damage from Vilano through Crescent Beach was incredible after Matthew, washing out portions of A1A completely. Many of the homes north of St. Augustine are still not repaired, and remain condemned from that storm damage. The shoreline was completely washed away in many areas. There's a picnic area south of Guana that St. Johns County had just updated to include covered patio areas on concrete slabs. Prior to Matthew, they were a good 20 feet from the dune, and another 150 or 200 feet from the waterfront. After Matthew, the pads were hanging over the edge of the dune. They just completed rebuilding that section of the beach a few months ago.
There are 2 houses in particular south of there where the foundation was completely washed out. In one instance, the water came completely through the house and blew out the garage doors and the siding. The house hasn't been touched since. Another house was built on pilings with a concrete foundation. The pilings are holding up the house, but the slab itself ended up about 5 feet above the sand, and eventually collapsed.
To see the devastation down there and the effort to rebuild, I feel sorry for these people because they're potentially going to see the same thing again. Every house in that area sustained serious damage, and they're just now getting back on their feet. Another hit similar to Matthew is going to create questions about the feasibility of rebuilding these homes again.
Let's hope and pray that the track continues to be pushed more to the east, and that this minimizes the impact to the coastal areas of FL, GA, and the Carolinas.
(09-06-2017, 12:51 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ] (09-06-2017, 12:46 PM)FBT Wrote: [ -> ]Right now it looks like it will be taking almost the same track that Matthew took last year, and could be a strong CAT3 or a CAT4 hurricane as it passes off the coast. We saw what Matthew did to the coast between Crescent Beach and Jacksonville, and then the damage it caused in the Carolinas, and that was a weak CAT2 by the time it got to us. If this is a stronger version, we're in for a significant storm to deal with early next week. Living in an area where we have oaks that are 75-90 feet tall, and prone to falling over in winds like this, We are high ground, so I'm not worried about flooding, but we've got a water oak sitting about 15 feet from the front of our house that leans over it. It held up well for Matthew, but if we start seeing sustained winds above 75 mph here, odds are pretty good that some part of, or all of that tree will be on my roof. We lost 2 older oaks in our back yard last year, one of which simply snapped in half from the winds. I've still got more than a dozen trees in the back but only 2 threaten the house. I'm not too concerned about those trees since they have deeper root systems.
As far as predicting it will hit anywhere, it's impossible to say anything. Yesterday it was potentially going into the Keys, then curling back around in the Gulf and coming back across the state. Earlier today it was going right into Miami and splitting the state. We're still 5 days out and the cone is more than 200 miles wide. The hope is that it will continue to shift more to the east, and not track along the coastline as tightly as Matthew did.
Storms like this are certainly a boon for retail sales of things like water, batteries, canned goods, lumber, and other dry goods. I went and gassed up all my stuff, and ran the generator with a load to make sure everything is ready to go. We'll hunker down unless told to do otherwise. We were fortunate with Matthew to only lose power for a couple of days. There were areas around us that didn't get their power restored for a week, making cleanup difficult.
If the tree falls on your house, do NOT use Big Ben's tree service. Had oak fall on rental property few weeks back and they charged 6K to get it out of there, and that didn't even include getting stump out, which was on neighbors property. Also, do NOT use Champion roofing for any roofing repairs or tarping. They billed the insurance company $2,500 to tarp a roof that included an hour of labor and it has been a fight ever since.
These companies will gouge the crap out of you in "emergency" situations. It is sad.
I've got a tree guy and a roofer I deal with. Hopefully I won't need either, but if the tree does fall, it'll be a small fortune to have it removed. I thought about having it taken down, but my house faces east, and it's the only thing that keeps the electric bill from exploding because it keeps shade on the house until late in the day. Plus, even my tree guy wants $4k to take that monster down. So, we just have it limbed up and keep it maintained hoping that that will be good enough.
I love it post-storm when the "tree surgeons" come out of the woodwork to clean up. My neighbor had a tree that split in half during Matthew. The half that came down came close to a privacy fence they have. By the time these "tree surgeons" were done bringing the tree down, they'd also taken down his privacy fence, and a playset they had in their back yard. Buyer beware. Neither would have been at risk with a real tree company (not Big Bens...they're charging prices to cover the cost of their overhead with all the big trucks and heavy duty equipment).
(09-06-2017, 12:40 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]The only certainty is uncertainty.
The only thing to fear, is fear itself...and the Category 5 hurricane coming through the Caribbean right now.
If that high ridge pressure doesn't settle over the mid Atlantic Tomorrow and early Friday the hurricane will take a more northern turn with a path similar to Matthew.
(09-06-2017, 01:22 PM)Jamies_fried_chicken Wrote: [ -> ]If that high ridge pressure doesn't settle over the mid Atlantic Tomorrow and early Friday the hurricane will take a more northern turn with a path similar to Matthew.
I imagine you standing in front of a green screen while saying this.
(09-06-2017, 11:20 AM)Jagsfan4life9/28/82 Wrote: [ -> ] (09-06-2017, 11:04 AM)JaguarsWoman Wrote: [ -> ]"Some forecast models" tells me nobody really knows where Irma will go. So far I have seen no reason for people in the Carolinas to worry too much because the storm is headed for the Gulf.
Nice work. First state nobody knows where Irma is going, then declare where Irma is going. Nobody but you, then?
The problem is some people say Gulf, others say Carolinas, and still more say Cuba. Nobody knows. What we do know is it will hit South Florida as it travels northwest. The trajectory shows its eye along the Gulf Coast - Fort Myers, Sarasota, St. Petersburg, etc.next week. Of course, it is way too early to forecast how far west Irma will go before turning northward.
(09-06-2017, 01:53 PM)JaguarsWoman Wrote: [ -> ] (09-06-2017, 11:20 AM)Jagsfan4life9/28/82 Wrote: [ -> ]Nice work. First state nobody knows where Irma is going, then declare where Irma is going. Nobody but you, then?
The problem is some people say Gulf, others say Carolinas, and still more say Cuba. Nobody knows. What we do know is it will hit South Florida as it travels northwest. The trajectory shows its eye along the Gulf Coast - Fort Myers, Sarasota, St. Petersburg, etc.next week. Of course, it is way too early to forecast how far west Irma will go before turning northward.
Most trajectories are showing the eye scraping the Atlantic Coast....
(09-06-2017, 01:53 PM)JaguarsWoman Wrote: [ -> ] (09-06-2017, 11:20 AM)Jagsfan4life9/28/82 Wrote: [ -> ]Nice work. First state nobody knows where Irma is going, then declare where Irma is going. Nobody but you, then?
The problem is some people say Gulf, others say Carolinas, and still more say Cuba. Nobody knows. What we do know is it will hit South Florida as it travels northwest. The trajectory shows its eye along the Gulf Coast - Fort Myers, Sarasota, St. Petersburg, etc.next week. Of course, it is way too early to forecast how far west Irma will go before turning northward.
Are you trolling a hurricane thread or is operating in reality purely elective to you? The current "trajectory" shows no such thing.
I'd love to know what model you're looking at JW, because that doesn't sound like any model I've seen.
(09-06-2017, 01:53 PM)JaguarsWoman Wrote: [ -> ] (09-06-2017, 11:20 AM)Jagsfan4life9/28/82 Wrote: [ -> ]Nice work. First state nobody knows where Irma is going, then declare where Irma is going. Nobody but you, then?
The problem is some people say Gulf, others say Carolinas, and still more say Cuba. Nobody knows. What we do know is it will hit South Florida as it travels northwest. The trajectory shows its eye along the Gulf Coast - Fort Myers, Sarasota, St. Petersburg, etc.next week. Of course, it is way too early to forecast how far west Irma will go before turning northward.
J-Dub, are you even paying attention? The model you keep citing is 48 hours old. The guidance has shifted dramatically east. Ensembles that put it along the west coast of FL are now the outliers, not the norm.
(09-06-2017, 12:12 PM)Kane Wrote: [ -> ]BTW... the fact that gas prices are rising due to Harvey is bogus.
What do you mean it's bogus?!... normally the cost going up due to other areas hit I would agree with you, but do you even know what the Houston area economy is based on?
www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/08/28/heres-how-many-barrels-of-oil-have-been-lost-to-hurricane-harvey
Houston is the energy capital of the world, sorry but when we shut down gas prices are going to rise for everyone (as we speak there's still a lot of plants offline)..There's no avoiding that. Honestly I'm surprised they haven't gone up higher. We are to oil/gas refinement what Idaho is to potatoes, Florida is to oranges, or what California is to porn. The major loss of production here is going to have a major effect on the economy even outside of gas prices since the rise of fuel drives up the cost of shipping as well. The shutdown of one of the largest ports didn't help matters either.
(09-06-2017, 02:15 PM)TurndownforWatt Wrote: [ -> ] (09-06-2017, 12:12 PM)Kane Wrote: [ -> ]BTW... the fact that gas prices are rising due to Harvey is bogus.
What do you mean it's bogus?!... normally the cost going up due to other areas hit I would agree with you, but do you even know what the Houston area economy is based on?
www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/08/28/heres-how-many-barrels-of-oil-have-been-lost-to-hurricane-harvey
Houston is the energy capital of the world, sorry but when we shut down gas prices are going to rise for everyone (as we speak there's still a lot of plants offline)..There's no avoiding that. Honestly I'm surprised they haven't gone up higher. We are to oil/gas refinement what Idaho is to potatoes, Florida is to oranges, or what California is to porn. The major loss of production here is going to have a major effect on the economy even outside of gas prices since the rise of fuel drives up the cost of shipping as well. The shutdown of one of the largest ports didn't help matters either.
Feel free to believe that dribble if you want.
There is no shortage of fuel in the US. Even a large area like Houston being affected.
Gas prices started to rise BEFORE Harvey ever made landfall.
They will say it's due to the effects on rigs in the Gulf... but like I said.. there is no shortage of oil or processed fuels.
Magically everyone just believes this is how things are... though it doesn't really make sense to make people pay more for something just when they might need it most........... or does it?
(09-06-2017, 02:21 PM)Kane Wrote: [ -> ] (09-06-2017, 02:15 PM)TurndownforWatt Wrote: [ -> ]What do you mean it's bogus?!... normally the cost going up due to other areas hit I would agree with you, but do you even know what the Houston area economy is based on?
www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/08/28/heres-how-many-barrels-of-oil-have-been-lost-to-hurricane-harvey
Houston is the energy capital of the world, sorry but when we shut down gas prices are going to rise for everyone (as we speak there's still a lot of plants offline)..There's no avoiding that. Honestly I'm surprised they haven't gone up higher. We are to oil/gas refinement what Idaho is to potatoes, Florida is to oranges, or what California is to porn. The major loss of production here is going to have a major effect on the economy even outside of gas prices since the rise of fuel drives up the cost of shipping as well. The shutdown of one of the largest ports didn't help matters either.
Feel free to believe that dribble if you want.
There is no shortage of fuel in the US. Even a large area like Houston being affected.
Gas prices started to rise BEFORE Harvey ever made landfall.
They will say it's due to the effects on rigs in the Gulf... but like I said.. there is no shortage of oil or processed fuels.
Magically everyone just believes this is how things are... though it doesn't really make sense to make people pay more for something just when they might need it most........... or does it?
Gas prises did not start to drastically rise before the storm hit, that's just false. And the only drivel here is you actually believing that the shutdown of the top petro cluster in the world (including 2 of the world's top 10 biggest refineries) will not have a impact on the price of fuel or is somehow bogus. It takes days to bring these plants down (which they started before the storm) and days to bring them back up to full capacity (after the storm and flooding pass) Not to mention the integrity of miles and miles of pipelines have to be checked, before given the sign off for full production..the EPA is highly involved. I actually work in this industry...there isn't just some giant on and off switch that they flip, it isn't that simple.