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(02-28-2022, 10:52 AM)NH3 Wrote: [ -> ]https://igvofficial.com/anonymous-hack-r...s-ukraine/

The Russian Hackers got Hacked, let the truth be known.

Time Will Tell.

NH3...

You mean the CIAnonymous?

People (and the media) keep freaking out about Putin going nuclear but does anyone really believe the man would opt for mutually assured destruction? Because that's what would happen. Unless he is legit having a mental breakdown and should be "Baker Acted" (look it up if you don't know what it means) I don't see him committing suicide because that's what he would be doing. Unless he does want to die and is too much of a puss to do himself in and wants to take his whole country with him.

I wish the nuclear rhetoric would calm down and the media stop speculating and start reporting what is actually happening. There are people truly terrified Putin is going to go full stupid.

Also, it's nuCLEAR, not nuCULAR. A pet peeve but it drives me nuts.

(03-01-2022, 12:48 PM)americus 2.0 Wrote: [ -> ]People (and the media) keep freaking out about Putin going nuclear but does anyone really believe the man would opt for mutually assured destruction? Because that's what would happen. Unless he is legit having a mental breakdown and should be "Baker Acted" (look it up if you don't know what it means) I don't see him committing suicide because that's what he would be doing. Unless he does want to die and is too much of a puss to do himself in and wants to take his whole country with him.

I wish the nuclear rhetoric would calm down and the media stop speculating and start reporting what is actually happening. There are people truly terrified Putin is going to go full stupid.

Also, it's nuCLEAR, not nuCULAR. A pet peeve but it drives me nuts.

Imagine.. on your death bed... you have the power to take all of humanity with you. You can take nothing else with you....

but the thought of ending humanity would be pretty enticing if you're Putin.

The speech by the Ukrainian president today was very touching. Those people have a lot of heart.

(03-01-2022, 12:48 PM)americus 2.0 Wrote: [ -> ]People (and the media) keep freaking out about Putin going nuclear but does anyone really believe the man would opt for mutually assured destruction? Because that's what would happen. Unless he is legit having a mental breakdown and should be "Baker Acted" (look it up if you don't know what it means) I don't see him committing suicide because that's what he would be doing. Unless he does want to die and is too much of a puss to do himself in and wants to take his whole country with him.

I wish the nuclear rhetoric would calm down and the media stop speculating and start reporting what is actually happening. There are people truly terrified Putin is going to go full stupid.

Also, it's nuCLEAR, not nuCULAR. A pet peeve but it drives me nuts.

Honestly, yes I do. Unlike you and me, Putin thinks differently. We allow checks and balances within our system to keep maniacs from causing international crisis'. Russia does not. Putin surrounds himself with "yes men" and never hears that he is wrong in any way. This can lead very powerful men to believe they are invincible. He will do anything not to appear weak. He doesn't care about human lives, be it Ukrainian lives or the lives of his own people. He just cares about his own power, so if he has to nuke someone to show his own power, he could care less if that means the ultimate destruction of himself and his own country. In his warped mind, it may be better off to go out with ultimate power, rather than to live and admit defeat.  

I believe very much that he may have suffered a breakdown, because I keep reading reports that people around him are saying he's being different and very erratic. With that said, their power system doesn't have a "Baker Act" type of thing. It would basically take a coup to overthrow him. With his history of human rights abuses, that would be a risky act, because if that happened and it failed, those who staged the coup would most assuredly be executed. It's gonna take 1 of 2 things for this to end. Some covert action will have to be taken by an outside country or within the Russian government to assassinate him or power will have to be taken from him via a coup within Russia. I don't see Putin ever backing down, because he is not thinking rationally and he's evil. If he loses power, he loses everything. Therefore every option is on the table.

(03-01-2022, 12:48 PM)americus 2.0 Wrote: [ -> ]People (and the media) keep freaking out about Putin going nuclear but does anyone really believe the man would opt for mutually assured destruction? Because that's what would happen. Unless he is legit having a mental breakdown and should be "Baker Acted" (look it up if you don't know what it means) I don't see him committing suicide because that's what he would be doing. Unless he does want to die and is too much of a puss to do himself in and wants to take his whole country with him.

I wish the nuclear rhetoric would calm down and the media stop speculating and start reporting what is actually happening. There are people truly terrified Putin is going to go full stupid.

Also, it's nuCLEAR, not nuCULAR. A pet peeve but it drives me nuts.

There is a legit concern here because although Putin doesn't want to see the world destroyed, there is a school of thought that he believes low yield nuclear weapons can be used tactically on the battlefield. Of course any use like that risks escalation to the "adios muchacho" scenario. So it's worth talking about but not obsessing over.

I think there is less than 50% probability that Putin uses any nuclear weapons in Ukraine.  On the chance that he does, though, it's not obvious to me that any NATO nation would respond with any nuclear strike of their own.  Ukraine is not in NATO, and they don't have nukes.  The MAD doctrine might not apply.

(03-01-2022, 01:45 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]I think there is less than 50% probability that Putin uses any nuclear weapons in Ukraine.  On the chance that he does, though, it's not obvious to me that any NATO nation would respond with any nuclear strike of their own.  Ukraine is not in NATO, and they don't have nukes.  The MAD doctrine might not apply.

Even if they use tactical artillery nukes the entire world would come crashing down on them hard. China included.

You think China wants to risk everything they've built in the last 30 years? Hell no. They've outdistanced Russia by a power of 15 since the 80s.

Question: if China, India, France, Israel, or the United States elects to hit Russia with a submarine launched nuclear warhead, would Russia have any real way to know which country did it?

(03-01-2022, 03:46 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]Question: if China, India, France, Israel, or the United States elects to hit Russia with a submarine launched nuclear warhead, would Russia have any real way to know which country did it?

Maybe.

From the exact composition of fallout, the yield of the weapon, the size of the weapon in relation to yield. 

All our Ballistic Submarines are MIRV'd... as are the British and French. The Russians I believe are also MIRV'd.

There are many ways to determine point of origin or country of origin.

The western nukes are BY FAR much smaller and much higher yield... efficiency born of 50 years of testing and perfecting. The others had maybe 10 years. North Korean nukes, as an example, can't even reach close to 500 kilotons. Their max I believe was 4 or 5 KT.

(03-01-2022, 03:46 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]Question: if China, India, France, Israel, or the United States elects to hit Russia with a submarine launched nuclear warhead, would Russia have any real way to know which country did it?

Probably there is some characteristic of the missile or yield that would give it away but even if not, Russia has more nukes than anyone else. An unhinged Putin could hit everybody.

Only if you truly believe the United States abided by the START treaties.

In Alaska the US has about 20,000 stored nuclear warheads.

(03-01-2022, 04:19 PM)TrivialPursuit Wrote: [ -> ]Only if you truly believe the United States abided by the START treaties.

In Alaska the US has about 20,000 stored nuclear warheads.

I've heard that the tops of some mountains in Alaska are basically retractable, because the inside of the mountains are basically a nuclear silos.

(03-01-2022, 01:24 PM)TheO-LineMatters Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-01-2022, 12:48 PM)americus 2.0 Wrote: [ -> ]People (and the media) keep freaking out about Putin going nuclear but does anyone really believe the man would opt for mutually assured destruction? Because that's what would happen. Unless he is legit having a mental breakdown and should be "Baker Acted" (look it up if you don't know what it means) I don't see him committing suicide because that's what he would be doing. Unless he does want to die and is too much of a puss to do himself in and wants to take his whole country with him.

I wish the nuclear rhetoric would calm down and the media stop speculating and start reporting what is actually happening. There are people truly terrified Putin is going to go full stupid.

Also, it's nuCLEAR, not nuCULAR. A pet peeve but it drives me nuts.

Honestly, yes I do. Unlike you and me, Putin thinks differently. We allow checks and balances within our system to keep maniacs from causing international crisis'. Russia does not. Putin surrounds himself with "yes men" and never hears that he is wrong in any way. This can lead very powerful men to believe they are invincible. He will do anything not to appear weak. He doesn't care about human lives, be it Ukrainian lives or the lives of his own people. He just cares about his own power, so if he has to nuke someone to show his own power, he could care less if that means the ultimate destruction of himself and his own country. In his warped mind, it may be better off to go out with ultimate power, rather than to live and admit defeat.  

I believe very much that he may have suffered a breakdown, because I keep reading reports that people around him are saying he's being different and very erratic. With that said, their power system doesn't have a "Baker Act" type of thing. It would basically take a coup to overthrow him. With his history of human rights abuses, that would be a risky act, because if that happened and it failed, those who staged the coup would most assuredly be executed. It's gonna take 1 of 2 things for this to end. Some covert action will have to be taken by an outside country or within the Russian government to assassinate him or power will have to be taken from him via a coup within Russia. I don't see Putin ever backing down, because he is not thinking rationally and he's evil. If he loses power, he loses everything. Therefore every option is on the table.

No. His own military officers would take him down before that would happen. The same hysterical media was 100% sure that Kruschev, Reagan, Bush, Nixon and Trump would do the same. Btw, other than Kruschev, there's a pattern here, in case you didn't notice.

(03-01-2022, 01:45 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]I think there is less than 50% probability that Putin uses any nuclear weapons in Ukraine.  On the chance that he does, though, it's not obvious to me that any NATO nation would respond with any nuclear strike of their own.  Ukraine is not in NATO, and they don't have nukes.  The MAD doctrine might not apply.

I'd say less than 1% because there's no tactical or strategic reason to use them in Ukraine.

Do we get involved more directly if this stretches on and the insurgency weighs down Russia enough for us to start to take out a large portion of their military easily? Nuke risk is an issue, but maybe better to get them now than to let them retool if they are substantially beaten down in another few weeks.

https://fb.watch/but8s4dG-n/

Some saw this war coming and the true purpose/reasoning behind it.

NH3...

(03-01-2022, 08:32 PM)Newton Wrote: [ -> ]Do we get involved more directly if this stretches on and the insurgency weighs down Russia enough for us to start to take out a large portion of their military easily? Nuke risk is an issue, but maybe better to get them now than to let them retool if they are substantially beaten down in another few weeks.

I'm wondering what happens if Belarus gets involved? They said they are ready to send in troops to assist the Russians and would host Russian nukes as well. Belarus has another crazy, little dictator that commits even more human rights violations than Putin does. He is basically a puppet of Putin's.

I realize now, I shouldn't have speculated about trying to keep which country launched a nuke secret. It takes too many people to launch a nuke. Someone on that sub crew would spill the beans eventually, and it would never be too late for a retaliatory strike.