Another problem with the Ridley situation is he will be looking for a big money, which means tbe Jaguars gonna have to come correct.
So for all of you 2 years/$10 million guys, you can forget it. Ridley had a down year and still had one of the top 10 best seasons in Franchise History for a WR.
Might have to cut Zay (which is my 13 year old dogs name) and use that money to sign Ridley.
4 years $80m is my prediction with $20 on the front
(02-20-2024, 02:26 PM)JagFanatic24 Wrote: [ -> ]Another problem with the Ridley situation is he will be looking for a big money, which means tbe Jaguars gonna have to come correct.
So for all of you 2 years/$10 million guys, you can forget it. Ridley had a down year and still had one of the top 10 best seasons in Franchise History for a WR.
Might have to cut Zay (which is my 13 year old dogs name) and use that money to sign Ridley.
4 years $80m is my prediction with $20 on the front
If I'm Baalke I'm offering three years at 16 million per year with some added performance incentives and letting him decide between staying put in a known system or having to start over elsewhere.
Because of his age - I'd not bother with a 4 year deal and I'd have a 2 year out clause with ~35 mil guaranteed.
Max value if he hits all incentives $52mil, maybe? Something like that.
Someone is going to offer him more than we can possibly pay. That is just reality for the Jags in their current situation. Only way to keep him is selling him a big year 2 in this offense.
I would be okay with cutting Zay to resign Ridley, though I do think this season was an abnormal injury year for Zay.
However, overall I don’t think it’s that simple. Probably what Ridley wants is out of the realm of what it makes sense to pay.
I support re-signing Ridley. He had 1,016 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. Even this undersells him a bit since it doesn't include drawing DPI where I understand he led the league. You also have to remember that he was playing for a new team and was having to learn a new offense. He was also returning from a year and a half out of football. He was also playing for a team with a line so bad that it didn't allow the team to fully take advantage of his speed. Fix the line and Ridley's stats will improve even more. I can easily see him having a big year next season. Let's bring him back.
(02-19-2024, 06:04 PM)Khan Artist Wrote: [ -> ]Do we really think Baalke is capable of drafting a player better than Ridley with our 2nd rounder?
Let's put aside Baalke for the moment. What are the odds for any GM? I was curious and looked at last year's draft. Below were the results for the top three rounds:
First Round: Four wide receivers were drafted. Their receiving yards ranged from 431 to 911 with an average of 707 yards.
Second Round: Four wide receivers were drafted. Their receiving yards ranged from 377 to 938 with an average of 632 yards.
Third Round: Six wide receivers were drafted. Their receiving yards ranged from 224 to 771 with an average of 496 yards.
There were more receivers in the top three rounds with less than 400 yards than there were with over 800 yards. None had over 1000 yards. None had more than Ridley's 1016 yards. To be fair, if you expanded it to the entire draft, strangely there was one player in the fifth round with more yards than Ridley. However, that's just 1 out of 33 wide receivers drafted. I like the idea of sticking with Ridley.
The second round pick isn’t just for a WR.
Our team needs offensive linemen. A guard in the 2nd round that’s an upgrade over what we have to me is more valuable than having Ridley on the roster.
(02-20-2024, 06:14 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: [ -> ]I support re-signing Ridley. He had 1,016 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. Even this undersells him a bit since it doesn't include drawing DPI where I understand he led the league. You also have to remember that he was playing for a new team and was having to learn a new offense. He was also returning from a year and a half out of football. He was also playing for a team with a line so bad that it didn't allow the team to fully take advantage of his speed. Fix the line and Ridley's stats will improve even more. I can easily see him having a big year next season. Let's bring him back.
I think we all want to bring him back. It’s just that we don’t want to give up a 2nd rounder.
(02-20-2024, 07:07 PM)SuperJville Wrote: [ -> ]The second round pick isn’t just for a WR.
Our team needs offensive linemen. A guard in the 2nd round that’s an upgrade over what we have to me is more valuable than having Ridley on the roster.
Correct, and, frankly, Ridley was good not great, and the Jaguars need to make sure they're not spending large chunks of cap on good not great players.
Priority one should be signing Josh Allen long term. Priority two should be improving the offensive line. Then improving the interior defensive line. After all of that I'd consider what to do about Ridley.
Getting elite talents is what the Jaguars really need, and that's not Ridley. If he is looking for big money then the Jaguars should let some other team pay him.
(02-20-2024, 07:38 PM)Cleatwood Wrote: [ -> ] (02-20-2024, 06:14 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: [ -> ]I support re-signing Ridley. He had 1,016 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. Even this undersells him a bit since it doesn't include drawing DPI where I understand he led the league. You also have to remember that he was playing for a new team and was having to learn a new offense. He was also returning from a year and a half out of football. He was also playing for a team with a line so bad that it didn't allow the team to fully take advantage of his speed. Fix the line and Ridley's stats will improve even more. I can easily see him having a big year next season. Let's bring him back.
I think we all want to bring him back. It’s just that we don’t want to give up a 2nd rounder.
This..
I'm sure KC would trade for him. Is there any way we can get any value or are we just screwed?
(02-20-2024, 06:14 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: [ -> ]I support re-signing Ridley. He had 1,016 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. Even this undersells him a bit since it doesn't include drawing DPI where I understand he led the league. You also have to remember that he was playing for a new team and was having to learn a new offense. He was also returning from a year and a half out of football. He was also playing for a team with a line so bad that it didn't allow the team to fully take advantage of his speed. Fix the line and Ridley's stats will improve even more. I can easily see him having a big year next season. Let's bring him back.
This right here might undo your own argument. Wouldn't it follow that with time a lesser, cheaper WR would be capable of matching 2023's performance?
If money were no object, I'd sign him in a heart beat. But I have a feeling you're only going to get to do one of the two things realistically, repair the line or sign another pricey WR.
If I'm forced to choose between inexperienced line or inexperienced receiver, I'll risk the receiver every day.
If Baalke manages to do both while still keeping Allen under contract he's golden.
(02-20-2024, 06:53 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: [ -> ] (02-19-2024, 06:04 PM)Khan Artist Wrote: [ -> ]Do we really think Baalke is capable of drafting a player better than Ridley with our 2nd rounder?
Let's put aside Baalke for the moment. What are the odds for any GM? I was curious and looked at last year's draft. Below were the results for the top three rounds:
First Round: Four wide receivers were drafted. Their receiving yards ranged from 431 to 911 with an average of 707 yards.
Second Round: Four wide receivers were drafted. Their receiving yards ranged from 377 to 938 with an average of 632 yards.
Third Round: Six wide receivers were drafted. Their receiving yards ranged from 224 to 771 with an average of 496 yards.
There were more receivers in the top three rounds with less than 400 yards than there were with over 800 yards. None had over 1000 yards. None had more than Ridley's 1016 yards. To be fair, if you expanded it to the entire draft, strangely there was one player in the fifth round with more yards than Ridley. However, that's just 1 out of 33 wide receivers drafted. I like the idea of sticking with Ridley.
That's quite superficial, though. Is that a symptom of the darft class being just ok, did the teams rolling with youth at WR spend their money elsewhere to better benefit, did the teams have another WR who was drawing more of the catches either because they were already stars, or because these rooks were drawing the prime coverage?
I think the whole "our GM can't replace [player]" argument is bunk regardless, this isn't just me dumping on your research. The darft isn't about replacing player or stat. It's about improving the team. What if we darft a 10-year all pro center with that second rounder? Didn't replace a single yard receiving, but is that likely going to better our season results?
The question should be is the cost of paying Rid, losing the pick better than letting him go, saving cap, keeping a pick and likely getting a compy in return? I'm not denying that Rid is fantastic. I'm not saying that any rook will replicate him or his stats. The cost of keeping him is more than just a second rounder. We need to factor in the totality of the transaction if we choose to poop on our GM's ability to handle the outcome, whichever direction they choose to go.
(02-21-2024, 03:12 AM)JaguarJosh2 Wrote: [ -> ]I'm sure KC would trade for him. Is there any way we can get any value or are we just screwed?
His current contract expires in like two weeks. I don't know that trades can be made at present, and what value do you think we could get for him under his current deal?
The alternative is we sign him to a deal, trade him away, and we accelerate any bonus over the life of the new contract into the current year's cap. That would be tar and feather territory for any GM in the league.
So yeah, you either sign him for keepsies or you let the dude walk. Not sure if that constitutes being screwed or not.
This is what happens when you rely on free agency for every single starting wide receiver and tight end. Ridley, Kirk, Zay, and Engram. If we had drafted and developed WRs, we would not be in this predicament. Fixing the OL should be priority number 1, but we will also be thin at wideout without Ridley. Baalke (and Caldwell) really put us in a pickle, and this is a further indictment of him as GM.
Q: If the Jaguars do not sign Ridley before free agency, what are the odds he resigns with the Jaguars?
A: High. I do not think Ridley wants to start over elsewhere, and the Jaguars can use this time to work out a deal with him but still wait until free agency starts to have him sign it. It isn't tampering because he is currently on their team.
Q: What are the odds Calvin Ridley is a Jaguar next season?
A: I will go with 85%/15%. I think he is a Jaguar. They want him back and all signs point to him preferring to return than starting anew elsewhere. The money just has to be close, and I think it will be.
This is from John Shipleys mailbag
(02-21-2024, 10:46 AM)Cleatwood Wrote: [ -> ]Q: If the Jaguars do not sign Ridley before free agency, what are the odds he resigns with the Jaguars?
A: High. I do not think Ridley wants to start over elsewhere, and the Jaguars can use this time to work out a deal with him but still wait until free agency starts to have him sign it. It isn't tampering because he is currently on their team.
Q: What are the odds Calvin Ridley is a Jaguar next season?
A: I will go with 85%/15%. I think he is a Jaguar. They want him back and all signs point to him preferring to return than starting anew elsewhere. The money just has to be close, and I think it will be.
This is from John Shipleys mailbag
I agree with all this - but I put the odds around 60/40
The lure of big money is hard to resist and there are very few productive WRs hitting free agency.
Someone will offer more than us.
(02-21-2024, 11:11 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (02-21-2024, 10:46 AM)Cleatwood Wrote: [ -> ]Q: If the Jaguars do not sign Ridley before free agency, what are the odds he resigns with the Jaguars?
A: High. I do not think Ridley wants to start over elsewhere, and the Jaguars can use this time to work out a deal with him but still wait until free agency starts to have him sign it. It isn't tampering because he is currently on their team.
Q: What are the odds Calvin Ridley is a Jaguar next season?
A: I will go with 85%/15%. I think he is a Jaguar. They want him back and all signs point to him preferring to return than starting anew elsewhere. The money just has to be close, and I think it will be.
This is from John Shipleys mailbag
I agree with all this - but I put the odds around 60/40
The lure of big money is hard to resist and there are very few productive WRs hitting free agency.
Someone will offer more than us.
Yeah, you're not hitting free agency and not looking at and seriously considering all the offers. Someone with a ton of cap space and a young QB who needs or could use a vet receiver will likely offer him more. Unfortunately that description includes all of our division rivals.
I think the odds of him coming back are getting dimmer and dimmer as we anticipate that real possibility of Baalke and Allen's camp dragging out his situation to where it will ultimately command a franchise tag.
The franchise tag was the only definitive tool this team had it's disposal to keep him locked in for 2024 and it doesn't feel like it's now a priority. Of course, it's all speculation and I could wake up tomorrow to a new deal worked out with the team and Allen, but, just doesn't seem likely.
My biggest concern is Ridley signing onto a team that will directly be our competition for a 7th seed or a direct competitor in a play-off contest. He could sign with say a team, like, the Bengals, the Chiefs or the Ravens. He could opt and probably go for more money on a team that's on the up and up potentially as well. For example, the Chargers with Herbert now and Harbaugh back in the NFL.
I would like to have him back. For many reasons already cited very earlier on in this thread. With my own figures thrown out there for comparison sake. However, if he opts not to come back here? I just hope it's for a team in the NFC instead of the AFC personally. If it's for money? It's probably the Panthers throwing a giant sum of money at him. Fine. Take it.
(02-21-2024, 12:57 PM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]I think the odds of him coming back are getting dimmer and dimmer as we anticipate that real possibility of Baalke and Allen's camp dragging out his situation to where it will ultimately command a franchise tag.
The franchise tag was the only definitive tool this team had it's disposal to keep him locked in for 2024 and it doesn't feel like it's now a priority. Of course, it's all speculation and I could wake up tomorrow to a new deal worked out with the team and Allen, but, just doesn't seem likely.
My biggest concern is Ridley signing onto a team that will directly be our competition for a 7th seed or a direct competitor in a play-off contest. He could sign with say a team, like, the Bengals, the Chiefs or the Ravens. He could opt and probably go for more money on a team that's on the up and up potentially as well. For example, the Chargers with Herbert now and Harbaugh back in the NFL.
I would like to have him back. For many reasons already cited very earlier on in this thread. With my own figures thrown out there for comparison sake. However, if he opts not to come back here? I just hope it's for a team in the NFC instead of the AFC personally. If it's for money? It's probably the Panthers throwing a giant sum of money at him. Fine. Take it.
They are after all where Jag receivers go to die.
Viska, Chark, now Rid?
(02-21-2024, 01:31 PM)Mikey Wrote: [ -> ]They are after all where Jag receivers go to die.
Viska, Chark, now Rid?
To follow your analogy Viska was barely born.