It’s for the best, I don’t think he was the right fit here. He seems like a good guy and all but for some reason just wasn’t gelling.
If we cant nab Tee Huggins or Mike Evans, We should just target a WR in Rd1 of the draft
I don't think it's a mistake at all. The only move should be at this time, you sign Josh Allen to a long term deal and DO NOT use the tag on him and you tag Ridley and hammer out a deal quickly.
A 4 year deal worth $75M is fair. Comes out to $18.75M per year. Places him just within or just outside the top 10. Remember, he was brought here to be a true number one receiver after a two year lay off.
You're not going to find his replacement in this draft unless you're willing to forego passing up on two bigger needs in the first two rounds between the interior positions on both sides of the football.
Here's one or two situations where I would be okay with Ridley walking.
1. They sign Mike Evans to a 2 year deal worth $40M.
2. They sign Tee Higgins to a similar deal above that I would offer Ridley. Maybe bump it up to $80M in total.
Either way, you're really playing with fire by not bringing him back. You're essentially back to square one with a new face inserted into the line-up trying to do what Ridley already did in his first year here.
Seems extremely redundant.
There are only a few 1000 yard receivers hitting the market and there are more than a few teams that need one.
They'll all get overpaid.
The odds of the Jags working a deal with Allen and using the tag on Ridley before the tag deadline are slim because it behooves the Allen camp to wait and see what other edge players sign for to push up Allen's number.
That means the Jags will likely be forced to tag Allen in order to protect him from the open market.
Ridley will have to decide between an offer of slightly less money to stay in a system he just learned - or get overpaid to start over somewhere new.
(02-01-2024, 11:04 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]There are only a few 1000 yard receivers hitting the market and there are more than a few teams that need one.
They'll all get overpaid.
The odds of the Jags working a deal with Allen and using the tag on Ridley before the tag deadline are slim because it behooves the Allen camp to wait and see what other edge players sign for to push up Allen's number.
That means the Jags will likely be forced to tag Allen in order to protect him from the open market.
Ridley will have to decide between an offer of slightly less money to stay in a system he just learned - or get overpaid to start over somewhere new.
![[Image: tenor.gif?itemid=18057541]](https://media1.tenor.com/images/f67886cc3ca6df95df58d494d43243de/tenor.gif?itemid=18057541)
So we "overpay" 2 of 3: Allen, Lawrence, or Ridley?
Ridley's got to be the odd man out.
(02-01-2024, 11:23 AM)anonymous2112 Wrote: [ -> ]So we "overpay" 2 of 3: Allen, Lawrence, or Ridley?
Ridley's got to be the odd man out.
Lawrence really shouldn't be apart of this equation. We still have one more year before we should start this conversation. This off season in 2024 needs to be about bolstering the line play on both sides while doing as minimum as possible in backfilling the skill positions to push Lawrence over the hump as a QB.
Unless you're landing Evans or Higgins in this scenario with Ridley hitting the market it doesn't make much sense. Also, again, consider the general manager here that has had virtually no luck or success at all in drafting quality WR talent that even comes close to the production Ridley gave this team in one year.
I think it's a mistake and we're just asking for trouble.
(02-01-2024, 11:23 AM)anonymous2112 Wrote: [ -> ]So we "overpay" 2 of 3: Allen, Lawrence, or Ridley?
Ridley's got to be the odd man out.
Makes sense, unless Lawrence's camp is coming to the table with a "let's do it next year" message.
That would be the only saving grace - but it will likely cost the Jags more in the end if Lawrence plays in 2024 like most think he can.
If Lawrence says - "next year" and Allen's camp is willing to move quick on a Bosa like deal that the Jags are willing to ink before the tag deadline -- then they tag Ridley.
I don't know the odds of those particular stars aligning perfectly, but I'm thinking it's a very slim chance.
(02-01-2024, 12:05 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (02-01-2024, 11:23 AM)anonymous2112 Wrote: [ -> ]So we "overpay" 2 of 3: Allen, Lawrence, or Ridley?
Ridley's got to be the odd man out.
Makes sense, unless Lawrence's camp is coming to the table with a "let's do it next year" message.
That would be the only saving grace - but it will likely cost the Jags more in the end if Lawrence plays in 2024 like most think he can.
If Lawrence says - "next year" and Allen's camp is willing to move quick on a Bosa like deal that the Jags are willing to ink before the tag deadline -- then they tag Ridley.
I don't know the odds of those particular stars aligning perfectly, but I'm thinking it's a very slim chance.
If Lawrence gets extended, his 2024 cap hit would likely be very low.
Jalen Hurts had a 13 million dollar hit this past season after signing his contract.
(02-01-2024, 11:02 AM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]I don't think it's a mistake at all. The only move should be at this time, you sign Josh Allen to a long term deal and DO NOT use the tag on him and you tag Ridley and hammer out a deal quickly.
A 4 year deal worth $75M is fair. Comes out to $18.75M per year. Places him just within or just outside the top 10. Remember, he was brought here to be a true number one receiver after a two year lay off.
You're not going to find his replacement in this draft unless you're willing to forego passing up on two bigger needs in the first two rounds between the interior positions on both sides of the football.
Here's one or two situations where I would be okay with Ridley walking.
1. They sign Mike Evans to a 2 year deal worth $40M.
2. They sign Tee Higgins to a similar deal above that I would offer Ridley. Maybe bump it up to $80M in total.
Either way, you're really playing with fire by not bringing him back. You're essentially back to square one with a new face inserted into the line-up trying to do what Ridley already did in his first year here.
Seems extremely redundant.
The term and total dollars aren’t as important as the guarantees. Ridley’s camp knows he won’t see the majority of those last 2 years of your proposed deal. What are you willing to guarantee him? It is going to take guaranteeing at least the first 2 years of the deal to get it done.
I don’t necessarily have a strong opinion either way, but ~$35M guaranteed or more off last year doesn’t completely sit right with me from the outside looking in. The FO knows him best though, so perhaps we are his strongest offer in free agency if they believe in him as much as Baalke was talking him up in the presser.
I don’t think Ridley is as good as most people on here think he is. Even for the falcons, he had critical drops. I think he is the classic overpaid veteran free agent (in this free agent cycle). However, if he cuts us a discount, sure let’s keep him. I just see him going for the money. He already took 2 years off, and this is likely the last big payday of his career.
I agree with those that want to keep Ridley around for at least another year. I mean, the Press Taylor, T. Lawrence, and Ridley combo have only been together for 1 year. it takes time to gel in an offense when the OC, QB, and WR are just getting acclimated. Just look at Manning and other top offenses for any long duration that had extensive stability in maintaining their same offensive personnel for years.
(02-01-2024, 12:43 PM)homebiscuit Wrote: [ -> ]Bye, Calvin. Hello, Tee.
Tee will sign with the Titans, who probably have more cap room and his former offensive coordinator. I’m not as enamored of him as some are here. He’s not a burner and he’s been injured. He reminds me of Allen Robinson, who faded fast. You’ll be paying for a red zone specialist who misses a lot of games. He’s a solid #2 who’ll get paid #1 money.
Pretend you’re the GM of another team considering making him an offer. What are you willing to offer a 29 year old guy that turned in a solid 2023 season but also previously stepped away from football and then was suspended? Obviously there will be language in any deal offered to protect the team given his history, but most of these other GMs probably have never had any interaction with him prior to these negotiations. If I’m GM of another team, I’m probably taking my cue from the Jags FO who knows him best and watching and interpreting how interested they appear to be in re-signing him. That sort of read has to happen before free agency begins though because deals can often get done quickly elsewhere if you sit on your hands.
(02-01-2024, 12:36 PM)Newton Wrote: [ -> ]I don’t think Ridley is as good as most people on here think he is. Even for the falcons, he had critical drops. I think he is the classic overpaid veteran free agent (in this free agent cycle). However, if he cuts us a discount, sure let’s keep him. I just see him going for the money. He already took 2 years off, and this is likely the last big payday of his career.
I don't think he's elite, however, I realize he's not far off from that when you weigh in everything that he had to go through over the last two years.
Again, for me, it boils down to a few things, mainly, how many holes do you really want to walk into free agency and the draft trying to backfill, knowing that the current front office has historically struggled in identifying and selecting quality starting caliber receiver's via the draft?
It's going to be a tall order to replace that production, and, you're paying him based on trajectory and I think his trajectory would be WAY UP going into year two within this same offense and same QB situation.
Would I like Mike Evans? Sure. Would I like Tee Higgins? Sure. The odds both of them escape Tampa Bay and Cincinatti respectively? Probably slim to none. Which means Ridley's value that much more goes up if he's legitimately able to test the market uncontested.
I throw a four year deal at him, right at $75M, I front load it and incentive it to match with what should be at the minimum two more years with Lawrence's current contract situation, and, I give myself a very, very easy out going into 2025, 2026 if he's just not living up to what the trajectory indicates.
(02-01-2024, 12:55 PM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: [ -> ]Pretend you’re the GM of another team considering making him an offer. What are you willing to offer a 29 year old guy that turned in a solid 2023 season but also previously stepped away from football and then was suspended? Obviously there will be language in any deal offered to protect the team given his history, but most of these other GMs probably have never had any interaction with him prior to these negotiations. If I’m GM of another team, I’m probably taking my cue from the Jags FO who knows him best and watching and interpreting how interested they appear to be in re-signing him. That sort of read has to happen before free agency begins though because deals can often get done quickly elsewhere if you sit on your hands.
I give him a four year deal valued right at $75M which would come out to $18.75M per year. I would front load and incentive it with escalators and specific marks that would enable bonus money up front instead of having to earn it in years three and four of the contract. I would guarantee him $25M of this contract and kick in a $10M signing bonus which is really like guaranteeing him $35M of the deal, which is slightly less than half the total value.
(02-01-2024, 11:04 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]There are only a few 1000 yard receivers hitting the market and there are more than a few teams that need one.
They'll all get overpaid.
The odds of the Jags working a deal with Allen and using the tag on Ridley before the tag deadline are slim because it behooves the Allen camp to wait and see what other edge players sign for to push up Allen's number.
That means the Jags will likely be forced to tag Allen in order to protect him from the open market.
Ridley will have to decide between an offer of slightly less money to stay in a system he just learned - or get overpaid to start over somewhere new.
Probably the most realistic scenario.
Guessing Allen won’t accept less than 23-24 mil a year.
(02-01-2024, 01:14 PM)wg171 Wrote: [ -> ] (02-01-2024, 11:04 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]There are only a few 1000 yard receivers hitting the market and there are more than a few teams that need one.
They'll all get overpaid.
The odds of the Jags working a deal with Allen and using the tag on Ridley before the tag deadline are slim because it behooves the Allen camp to wait and see what other edge players sign for to push up Allen's number.
That means the Jags will likely be forced to tag Allen in order to protect him from the open market.
Ridley will have to decide between an offer of slightly less money to stay in a system he just learned - or get overpaid to start over somewhere new.
Probably the most realistic scenario.
Guessing Allen won’t accept less than 22-23 mil a year.
Allen should get a six year deal close to $130M. This would make his yearly cap hit just under $22M per year. People keep getting caught up in the short term while ignoring the fundamental facts of life with the NFL and the yearly salary cap adjustments.
Just like the Christian Kirk deal two years ago, it's top dog money for maybe a brief moment in the sun and then it looks like peanuts crumbled up in a bag on a small airplane compared to the next wave of guys that are due money. People will have a [BLEEP] fit when Allen gets paid while ignoring the MAMMOTH extensions that guys like Micah Parsons & T.J Watt are due for.
Also, if we're talking trajectories now? By the time Allen's deal is up here? Guess who they have to turn around and pony up for? #44 is going to get him a big pay day as well. Him hitting double digit sacks is impressive in year two. Don't be surprised if he's in the 12 - 17 range in 2024 later on this year.
(02-01-2024, 01:05 PM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ] (02-01-2024, 12:36 PM)Newton Wrote: [ -> ]I don’t think Ridley is as good as most people on here think he is. Even for the falcons, he had critical drops. I think he is the classic overpaid veteran free agent (in this free agent cycle). However, if he cuts us a discount, sure let’s keep him. I just see him going for the money. He already took 2 years off, and this is likely the last big payday of his career.
I don't think he's elite, however, I realize he's not far off from that when you weigh in everything that he had to go through over the last two years.
Again, for me, it boils down to a few things, mainly, how many holes do you really want to walk into free agency and the draft trying to backfill, knowing that the current front office has historically struggled in identifying and selecting quality starting caliber receiver's via the draft?
It's going to be a tall order to replace that production, and, you're paying him based on trajectory and I think his trajectory would be WAY UP going into year two within this same offense and same QB situation.
Would I like Mike Evans? Sure. Would I like Tee Higgins? Sure. The odds both of them escape Tampa Bay and Cincinatti respectively? Probably slim to none. Which means Ridley's value that much more goes up if he's legitimately able to test the market uncontested.
I throw a four year deal at him, right at $75M, I front load it and incentive it to match with what should be at the minimum two more years with Lawrence's current contract situation, and, I give myself a very, very easy out going into 2025, 2026 if he's just not living up to what the trajectory indicates.
(02-01-2024, 12:55 PM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: [ -> ]Pretend you’re the GM of another team considering making him an offer. What are you willing to offer a 29 year old guy that turned in a solid 2023 season but also previously stepped away from football and then was suspended? Obviously there will be language in any deal offered to protect the team given his history, but most of these other GMs probably have never had any interaction with him prior to these negotiations. If I’m GM of another team, I’m probably taking my cue from the Jags FO who knows him best and watching and interpreting how interested they appear to be in re-signing him. That sort of read has to happen before free agency begins though because deals can often get done quickly elsewhere if you sit on your hands.
I give him a four year deal valued right at $75M which would come out to $18.75M per year. I would front load and incentive it with escalators and specific marks that would enable bonus money up front instead of having to earn it in years three and four of the contract. I would guarantee him $25M of this contract and kick in a $10M signing bonus which is really like guaranteeing him $35M of the deal, which is slightly less than half the total value.
It’s going to probably take a little more than that in the signing bonus column in my opinion. A low signing bonus such as this is very team friendly for years 3 and 4 if the team decides to move on which puts future 31 year old Calvin Ridley in not such a great spot. The higher the signing bonus makes it more likely that years 3 and 4 actually become real because of a higher dead cap figure to the team. If Ridley signs such a deal as you propose, he’d be giving the team total control over making years 3 and 4 team option years with very little incentive to keep him unless he’s playing at god tier level. From Ridley’s camp’s standpoint, you’d want there to be some incentive for the team to want to keep and pay you in years 3 and 4 and that’s accomplished with having a more significant dead cap figure.
Essentially, your numbers might be in line, but I think the deal is going to have to look a little different. Who knows? His market may be softer than expected and he has to take what he can get.
(02-01-2024, 01:23 PM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: [ -> ] (02-01-2024, 01:05 PM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]I don't think he's elite, however, I realize he's not far off from that when you weigh in everything that he had to go through over the last two years.
Again, for me, it boils down to a few things, mainly, how many holes do you really want to walk into free agency and the draft trying to backfill, knowing that the current front office has historically struggled in identifying and selecting quality starting caliber receiver's via the draft?
It's going to be a tall order to replace that production, and, you're paying him based on trajectory and I think his trajectory would be WAY UP going into year two within this same offense and same QB situation.
Would I like Mike Evans? Sure. Would I like Tee Higgins? Sure. The odds both of them escape Tampa Bay and Cincinatti respectively? Probably slim to none. Which means Ridley's value that much more goes up if he's legitimately able to test the market uncontested.
I throw a four year deal at him, right at $75M, I front load it and incentive it to match with what should be at the minimum two more years with Lawrence's current contract situation, and, I give myself a very, very easy out going into 2025, 2026 if he's just not living up to what the trajectory indicates.
I give him a four year deal valued right at $75M which would come out to $18.75M per year. I would front load and incentive it with escalators and specific marks that would enable bonus money up front instead of having to earn it in years three and four of the contract. I would guarantee him $25M of this contract and kick in a $10M signing bonus which is really like guaranteeing him $35M of the deal, which is slightly less than half the total value.
It’s going to probably take a little more than that in the signing bonus column in my opinion. A low signing bonus such as this is very team friendly for years 3 and 4 if the team decides to move on which puts future 31 year old Calvin Ridley in not such a great spot. The higher the signing bonus makes it more likely that years 3 and 4 actually become real because of a higher dead cap figure to the team. If Ridley signs such a deal as you propose, he’d be giving the team total control over making years 3 and 4 team option years with very little incentive to keep him unless he’s playing at god tier level. From Ridley’s camp’s standpoint, you’d want there to be some incentive for the team to want to keep and pay you in years 3 and 4 and that’s accomplished with having a more significant dead cap figure.
Essentially, your numbers might be in line, but I think the deal is going to have to look a little different. Who knows? His market may be softer than expected and he has to take what he can get.
If he gives me his best football in 2024 and 2025 he'll earn the majority of this contract. Even with the easy out for the football team, his camp could also look at it like this, he did miss two years worth of football which gives him a little bit more shelf life going into this part of his career.
Maybe he wants that easy out anyway if he's just producing big numbers here and not getting any wins or titles or accolades for his work. Essentially it gives him a chance to chase down a winning football team on a new deal elsewhere. No different than what happens with this position in general.
We see it with everybody really. Even the all-time greats. Rice to Oakland. Owens to Philadelphia. Moss to New England. List goes on. There has to be a degree of sensibility within himself and his camp.
Take the money here in a tax free state, give it your best two year run, wait until the end of 2025, early 2026 arrives and they can have another discussion. I think if we're being honest, giving him $35M guaranteed out of a $75M contract on four years is probably no different than what he'd get elsewhere.
Most teams looking to compete right now would probably throw a 2 year deal at him worth close to $40M with maybe half of that guaranteed. We'll see I guess. All of this is based on whether or not the front office gets a deal worked out with Josh Allen prior to free agency starting.
If they reserve that tag for him? I could see Ridley easily walking. This is where Baalke and his staff begin to earn their salt.