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Quote:So, Barry Obama called Trump ignorant on foreign policy yet is just now admitting the group he once referred to as "J.V" might get their hands on nuclear material. Have we ever had a more clueless president?


Shining endorsement for DT.

 

Donald Trump said Obama is the worst US President in history and I agree.

In order to win the Republican Nomination without a contested Convention, Donald Trump needs 1,237 delegates

 

He has currently (estimated) 749 (+/- 3 delegates) compared to Ted Cruz 455 (+/- 8 delegates)

 

April 5 - Wisconsin - 42 Delegates (Winner-Take-All)

April 19- New York - 95 Delegates (Winner-Take-Most)

April 26- Connecticut- 28 Delegates (Winner-Take-Most)

"       - Delaware - 16 (Winner-Take-All)

"       - Maryland - 38 (Winner-Take-All)

"       - Pennsylvania - 71 (Winner-Take-All)

"       - Rhode Island - 19 (Proportional)

May 3   - Indiana - 57 (Winner-Take-All)

May 10  - Nebraska - 35 (winner-Take-All)

        - West VA - 34 (Direct Elec.)

May 17  - Oregon- 28 (Proportional)

May 24  - Washington - 44 (prop.)

June 7  - California- 172 (Winner-Take-All)

        - Montana - 27 (winner-Take-All)

        - New Jersey- 51 (winner-Take-All)

        - New Mexico - 24 (prop.)

        - South Dakota - 29 (Winner-Take-All)


========================

 

Okay Donald Trump is trailing Ted Cruz in Wisconsin (Tuesday's election, but that was a must win for Teddy & not Donald). 

The states in Bold font I expect Trump to win based on polls, etc.  That's 471 delegates he might get plus his existing gives him 1,220 delegates

He would only need to get 17 (which is very likely with the Proportional states even if he doesn't win any other states in the election other than the bold ones...

He is leading in NY by a huge margin and might get all 95 delegates.  He is leading in CA which is huge, and by all counts he does look a lot like Ronald Regan as far as votes goes.

Quote:In order to win the Republican Nomination without a contested Convention, Donald Trump needs 1,237 delegates

 

He has currently (estimated) 749 (+/- 3 delegates) compared to Ted Cruz 455 (+/- 8 delegates)

 

April 5 - Wisconsin - 42 Delegates (Winner-Take-All)

April 19- New York - 95 Delegates (Winner-Take-Most)

April 26- Connecticut- 28 Delegates (Winner-Take-Most)

"       - Delaware - 16 (Winner-Take-All)

"       - Maryland - 38 (Winner-Take-All)

"       - Pennsylvania - 71 (Winner-Take-All)

"       - Rhode Island - 19 (Proportional)

May 3   - Indiana - 57 (Winner-Take-All)

May 10  - Nebraska - 35 (winner-Take-All)

        - West VA - 34 (Direct Elec.)

May 17  - Oregon- 28 (Proportional)

May 24  - Washington - 44 (prop.)

June 7  - California- 172 (Winner-Take-All)

        - Montana - 27 (winner-Take-All)

        - New Jersey- 51 (winner-Take-All)

        - New Mexico - 24 (prop.)

        - South Dakota - 29 (Winner-Take-All)


========================

 

Okay Donald Trump is trailing Ted Cruz in Wisconsin (Tuesday's election, but that was a must win for Teddy & not Donald). 

The states in Bold font I expect Trump to win based on polls, etc.  That's 471 delegates he might get plus his existing gives him 1,220 delegates

He would only need to get 17 (which is very likely with the Proportional states even if he doesn't win any other states in the election other than the bold ones...

He is leading in NY by a huge margin and might get all 95 delegates.  He is leading in CA which is huge, and by all counts he does look a lot like Ronald Regan as far as votes goes.

 

The problem with your fantasy is that the states in bold are not all "winner take all" states.  There is no way that he gets 471 delegates out of those states.

 

The bottom line is, this is going to go to a contested convention and he WILL lose.

Quote:The problem with your fantasy is that the states in bold are not all "winner take all" states. There is no way that he gets 471 delegates out of those states.


The bottom line is, this is going to go to a contested convention and he WILL lose.

Tsk tsk...


He will lose? This is why your republicans will never win a national vote ever again...


Ignore the will of the majority. You elite republicans know what's best, huh?


Lol, the hypocrisy of republican lies, and the reality of what republicans actually desire is delicious.


If trump has the majority of delegates and the nomination is brokered, what more fitting description of a nanny-state, big government control by elites do you need?

Quote:The problem with your fantasy is that the states in bold are not all "winner take all" states. There is no way that he gets 471 delegates out of those states.


The bottom line is, this is going to go to a contested convention and he WILL lose.

For the most part we are entering a winner take most atmosphere with the potential for winner take all based on congressional districts. Not all states are winner take all but the overall apportioning of delegates is going to be a lot different than pre florid.


If trump continues to win states at the rate he has including california its at least even money he gets to 1237.


Cruz is going to have to make a move and flip a couple states and deny him any delegates in places like wisconsin assuming cruz wins.

Quote:The problem with your fantasy is that the states in bold are not all "winner take all" states.  There is no way that he gets 471 delegates out of those states.

 

The bottom line is, this is going to go to a contested convention and he WILL lose.

 

All of them are except NY & Connecticut but they are winner-take-most and he is leading in NY by enough to possibly take them all.  The states (not in bold that show proportional will most likely give close to half to trump as well).  I mean I'm no math wiz but based on polls he should have enough to get the required 1,237 delegates to win it on the first vote.  While many might go kicking and screaming, they will vote for him on Election Day.

 

 

If it is contested the delegates he already won gives him more leverage to obtain the others he would probably have to simply bribe or influence them.

I don't see it being Ted Cruz if it goes brokered as the GOP hates them both.

Quote:Tsk tsk...


He will lose? This is why your republicans will never win a national vote ever again...

Ignore the will of the majority. You elite republicans know what's best, huh?


Lol, the hypocrisy of republican lies, and the reality of what republicans actually desire is delicious.

If trump has the majority of delegates and the nomination is brokered, what more fitting description of a nanny-state, big government control by elites do you need?

 

I don't know how you can call it "the will of the majority" when he's not getting a majority of the vote.  

 

"If Trump has a majority of the delegates..." he will win on the first ballot.  

 

Maybe you don't really mean "majority."  

Quote:I don't know how you can call it "the will of the majority" when he's not getting a majority of the vote.  

 

"If Trump has a majority of the delegates..." he will win on the first ballot.  

 

Maybe you don't really mean "majority."  

 

LOL, Hey Anchorman, you keep using the word majority...  I don't think it means what you think it means...

 

Good point.  I do not mean, "majority" in the sense of 50% plus one.  The proper term I should have used was a "plurality".  If a candidate walks in with the most votes, but not the majority, and they give it to another guy that is behind that person in delegates, then what the heck are you doing as a party?

 

You're basically saying, we don't care what the voters are saying, we're gonna go with what the establishment elites believe is best for you little dumb voters.  

Anybody thinking Kasich gets the nomination is hilarious. I find it disturbing that there are people still wasting hard earned money to support this condescending losers campaign.

Trumps town hall with Hannity was good and Melania is a breath of fresh air really. Some polls showing Trump in lead in WI. Should be interesting night although, I think Mr. Bean still edges him out. Hope I'm wrong.

Quote:Trumps town hall with Hannity was good and Melania is a breath of fresh air really. Some polls showing Trump in lead in WI. Should be interesting night although, I think Mr. Bean still edges him out. Hope I'm wrong.

The last 2 weeks has been a complete media assault on trump in the run up to today. If trump pulls this win off, it'll be a huge win.


If the Cuban Canadian wins, expect the corporate media to proclaim lying Ted as changing the game. It's pretty obvious how much the elite are in the bag for el rato.

Quote:LOL, Hey Anchorman, you keep using the word majority...  I don't think it means what you think it means...

 

Good point.  I do not mean, "majority" in the sense of 50% plus one.  The proper term I should have used was a "plurality".  If a candidate walks in with the most votes, but not the majority, and they give it to another guy that is behind that person in delegates, then what the heck are you doing as a party?

 

You're basically saying, we don't care what the voters are saying, we're gonna go with what the establishment elites believe is best for you little dumb voters.  

 

A contested convention is one where no candidate has a majority of the delegates on the first ballot.  Since this is what might happen this time, I looked up the history of contested conventions. 

 

http://leavittpartners.com/2016/03/a-his...nventions/

 

"When a contested convention does occur, the candidate with the highest number of delegates after the first ballot has only won a minority of times.  For the Democrats, the leading candidate after the first ballot secured the nomination 7 out of 16 times.  For the Republicans, the leading candidate only secured the nomination 3 out of 10 times. "

 

"When a candidate is ultimately selected in a contested convention, it doesn’t appear to be fatal for the party’s nominee.  For the Democrats in 6 out of 16 contested conventions the eventual nominee has won the presidency.  For the Republicans the odds have been even better – their candidate has won the general election 5 out of 10 times.  Interestingly, in only 3 out of 26 contested conventions has the leading candidate for either party after the first ballot eventually secured the presidency – Buchanan in 1856, Cleveland in 1884, and FDR in 1932.  In the other 7 occasions where the contested nominee has won the general election, he was not the leading candidate in the first round of balloting. "

 

 

So what conclusion can we draw from this?  

 

1) If Trump has the most delegates, but not a majority, and he winds up not getting the nomination, it won't necessarily damage the party's prospects in the general election.  At least, not if history is any guide. 

 

2) This has happened a lot of times, but not in the last 60 years. 

Has there ever been a time in history when the person most likely to be screwed by a contested convention had the power to essentially ruin the party if he decided to run as an independent?

Quote:Has there ever been a time in history when the person most likely to be screwed by a contested convention had the power to essentially ruin the party if he decided to run as an independent?

 

Teddy?

Quote:The last 2 weeks has been a complete media assault on trump in the run up to today. If trump pulls this win off, it'll be a huge win.


If the Cuban Canadian wins, expect the corporate media to proclaim lying Ted as changing the game. It's pretty obvious how much the elite are in the bag for el rato.

 

Speaking of "Cuban Canadian," it seems like the question of his constitutional eligibility to be President has hit the back burner.   I'd bet it will hit the front burner if he wins the nomination.   Then, what if it goes to the Supreme Court?   There are only 8 justices right now.   What if it's a 4-4 tie?  What then? 

Quote:A contested convention is one where no candidate has a majority of the delegates on the first ballot. Since this is what might happen this time, I looked up the history of contested conventions.

<a class="bbc_url" href='http://leavittpartners.com/2016/03/a-history-of-contested-political-conventions/'>http://leavittpartners.com/2016/03/a-history-of-contested-political-conventions/</a>


"When a contested convention does occur, the candidate with the highest number of delegates after the first ballot has only won a minority of times. For the Democrats, the leading candidate after the first ballot secured the nomination 7 out of 16 times. For the Republicans, the leading candidate only secured the nomination 3 out of 10 times. "


"When a candidate is ultimately selected in a contested convention, it doesn’t appear to be fatal for the party’s nominee. For the Democrats in 6 out of 16 contested conventions the eventual nominee has won the presidency. For the Republicans the odds have been even better – their candidate has won the general election 5 out of 10 times. Interestingly, in only 3 out of 26 contested conventions has the leading candidate for either party after the first ballot eventually secured the presidency – Buchanan in 1856, Cleveland in 1884, and FDR in 1932. In the other 7 occasions where the contested nominee has won the general election, he was not the leading candidate in the first round of balloting. "



So what conclusion can we draw from this?


1) If Trump has the most delegates, but not a majority, and he winds up not getting the nomination, it won't necessarily damage the party's prospects in the general election. At least, not if history is any guide.


2) This has happened a lot of times, but not in the last 60 years.

Yeh but some of those predate the mosern primary system itself.

Quote:Anybody thinking Kasich gets the nomination is hilarious. I find it disturbing that there are people still wasting hard earned money to support this condescending losers campaign.

I donated because he is the most sensible candidate left.

Quote:People always bring this up, but it obviously has little to do with the core issue. Disallowing abortion except in the instance of rape pregnancy? sure, I'd like that better than what is happening now.

People bring it up because it happens very often.

Quote:Yeh but some of those predate the mosern primary system itself.

 

Good point.