(12-27-2021, 12:02 PM)SamusAranX Wrote: [ -> ]Also, the Gabbert comparisons show just how impatient and disingenuous these posters are.
Gabbert posted 15 games played in 2011, 14 started, so now is a good time compare the same sample sizes:
Gabbert 2011 Completion Percentage: 50.8
Trevor's 2021 Completion Percentage: 58.7
Gabbert 2011 YPG: 147.6
Lawrence 2021 YPG: 215.0
Gabbert 2011 YPA: 5.4
Lawrence 2021 YPA: 5.9
Gabbert 2011 Yards: 2214
Trevor 2021 Yards: 3225
Gabbert Passer Rating 2011: 65.4
Trevor Passer Rating 2021: 70.6
Gabbert QBR: 22.2
Trevor QBR: 32.5
Gabbert 1D Passing: 111
Trevor 1D Passing: 158
Gabbert Rush Yards /TD's / 1D: 98/ 0/ 8
Trevor: Rush Yards / TD's / 1D: 301/ 2 / 18
Gabbert game winning drives: 0
Trevor game winning drives: 2
Stop with the silliness. Trevor is not playing at a Gabbert "level". He's posting better passing and mobility numbers in almost every category and showing more promise on a roster just as poor as 2011, except even Gabbert had a top 10 defense, a league leading TE in touchdowns, and a rushing title RB. And JDR could outcoach Bevell and Meyer any day. Gabbert also took way more sacks as he tended to curl up and go down under pressure, an observation of all during 2011. Trevor has stepped up in the pocket more times this year then Gabbert could dream of.
Compare with bortles numbers.
(12-27-2021, 02:05 PM)TearExtractor Wrote: [ -> ] (12-27-2021, 01:31 PM)Mikey Wrote: [ -> ][quote pid="1435903" dateline="1640570700"]
He cant even get some garbage time TD's...
...so you'd rather we be losing by 20 so he can throw a meaningless pass?
Give me the "we had the chance to win on the last drive of the game" every fricking week, even if we don't come out the winner.
Id rather my QB be able to throw a touchdown, at ANY point during a game, a bit more than 1 every 2 months.
[/quote]
There are a lot more factors that go into end zone touchdowns then just “the QB can’t do it”. He can, and part of that is yes, when given opportunities there have been times he hasn’t made the right throw or read. That’s fine. He’s learning. But other factors, are drops; lack of ability by the offense as a whole to even get close to the red zone more then a few times a game if that; preference to run James Robinson when the down and distance is super close (which is a no brainer). Look at it within its context. Touchdowns isn’t end all be all. Bortles threw for 35 of em in 2015 but yet it didn’t affect our overall record or his development (or lack there of )
Imagine comparing Lawrence to Gabbert and being happy about his stats being slightly better.
Its like being happy your are being served a second helping of [BLEEP] because they put some seasoning on it this time.
(12-27-2021, 02:06 PM)jaguarmvp Wrote: [ -> ] (12-27-2021, 12:02 PM)SamusAranX Wrote: [ -> ]Also, the Gabbert comparisons show just how impatient and disingenuous these posters are.
Gabbert posted 15 games played in 2011, 14 started, so now is a good time compare the same sample sizes:
Gabbert 2011 Completion Percentage: 50.8
Trevor's 2021 Completion Percentage: 58.7
Gabbert 2011 YPG: 147.6
Lawrence 2021 YPG: 215.0
Gabbert 2011 YPA: 5.4
Lawrence 2021 YPA: 5.9
Gabbert 2011 Yards: 2214
Trevor 2021 Yards: 3225
Gabbert Passer Rating 2011: 65.4
Trevor Passer Rating 2021: 70.6
Gabbert QBR: 22.2
Trevor QBR: 32.5
Gabbert 1D Passing: 111
Trevor 1D Passing: 158
Gabbert Rush Yards /TD's / 1D: 98/ 0/ 8
Trevor: Rush Yards / TD's / 1D: 301/ 2 / 18
Gabbert game winning drives: 0
Trevor game winning drives: 2
Stop with the silliness. Trevor is not playing at a Gabbert "level". He's posting better passing and mobility numbers in almost every category and showing more promise on a roster just as poor as 2011, except even Gabbert had a top 10 defense, a league leading TE in touchdowns, and a rushing title RB. And JDR could outcoach Bevell and Meyer any day. Gabbert also took way more sacks as he tended to curl up and go down under pressure, an observation of all during 2011. Trevor has stepped up in the pocket more times this year then Gabbert could dream of.
Compare with bortles numbers.
Oh look, someone got snippy because he was the one who made the comparison and he now has egg on his face.
And Bortles? HAA
Bortles 2014 Completion Percentage : 58.9
Trevor's 2021 Completion Percentage: 58.7
Bortles YPA: 6.1
Trevors YPA: 5.9
Bortles YPG: 207
Lawrence 2021 YPG: 215.0
Bortles 2014 Yards: 2908
Trevor 2021 Yards: 3225
Bortles Passer rating: 69.5
Trevor Passer Rating 2021: 70.6
Bortles QBR: 26.7
Trevor QBR: 32.5
Bortles 1D Passing: 136
Trevor 1D Passing: 158
Bortles Rush Yards /TD's / 1D: 419/ 0/ 28
Trevor: Rush Yards / TD's / 1D: 301/ 2 / 18
Bortles INT: 17
Trevor: 14
Bortles game winning drives: 1
Trevor game winning drives: 2
Bortles and Trevor basically even in two categories (0.2 difference in those), threw only 2 more touchdowns, rushed a bit better although Trevor scored, and was worse in all other categories, and he played 14 games as (technically 13.5).
Do you even think before you post?
(12-27-2021, 02:11 PM)TearExtractor Wrote: [ -> ]Imagine comparing Lawrence to Gabbert and being happy about his stats being slightly better.
Its like being happy your are being served a second helping of [BLEEP] because they put some seasoning on it this time.
You're putting words in my mouth. I wasn't the one who made a dumb claim that Trevor is playing like Gabbert. The evidence speaks that he is having a better rookie year then both Bortles and Gabbert, with an arguably dead even or worse roster situation. Bortles had Hurns and Robinson his first year. Jones maybe sniff's Hurns jock, but not by much. Doesn't mean I am happy, just showing trolls are gonna troll. I could post twenty different QB's who had inconsistent or downright bad rookie years and went on to have a good career, and trolls just handwave it. This [Gabbert / Bortles vs. Lawrence] was their chosen metric, not mine.
People defend Trevor way too much when he clearly has issues (accuracy moslty) and hasn't shown that "generational talent"
People attack Trevor too much while the guy is being coached by some of the worst coaches in the league, has a mediocre O-line and WRs have dropped like 30 passes or more... Oh and now the guy doesn't have a RB.
The truth is somewhere in the middle. The guy can be good (probably not great, not top 5) with better coaching and better talent around him. I've only watched him as a Jag and his last game at Clemson. I gotta say, in that game against Ohio St I didn't see a much different QB, never saw that talent people talk about, I was unimpressed but I thought "it's just one game and Clemson had a bad game". Now I am doubting the guy has that kind of talent, but if you ask me, the guy can develop in a good enough QB, with enough talent around him he could win a SB but he is never gonna be a Brady, Manning, Mahomes, etc.
(12-27-2021, 03:35 PM)iHaunting Raven Wrote: [ -> ]People defend Trevor way too much when he clearly has issues (accuracy moslty) and hasn't shown that "generational talent"
People attack Trevor too much while the guy is being coached by some of the worst coaches in the league, has a mediocre O-line and WRs have dropped like 30 passes or more... Oh and now the guy doesn't have a RB.
The truth is somewhere in the middle. The guy can be good (probably not great, not top 5) with better coaching and better talent around him. I've only watched him as a Jag and his last game at Clemson. I gotta say, in that game against Ohio St I didn't see a much different QB, never saw that talent people talk about, I was unimpressed but I thought "it's just one game and Clemson had a bad game". Now I am doubting the guy has that kind of talent, but if you ask me, the guy can develop in a good enough QB, with enough talent around him he could win a SB but he is never gonna be a Brady, Manning, Mahomes, etc.
When did this accuracy problem thing start? Are there advanced passing metrics that say Trevor is significantly worse accuracy wise? Or does this mean sometimes you see him throw higher or lower than would be ideal, and the receiver doesn't make the catch?
(12-27-2021, 03:41 PM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ] (12-27-2021, 03:35 PM)iHaunting Raven Wrote: [ -> ]People defend Trevor way too much when he clearly has issues (accuracy moslty) and hasn't shown that "generational talent"
People attack Trevor too much while the guy is being coached by some of the worst coaches in the league, has a mediocre O-line and WRs have dropped like 30 passes or more... Oh and now the guy doesn't have a RB.
The truth is somewhere in the middle. The guy can be good (probably not great, not top 5) with better coaching and better talent around him. I've only watched him as a Jag and his last game at Clemson. I gotta say, in that game against Ohio St I didn't see a much different QB, never saw that talent people talk about, I was unimpressed but I thought "it's just one game and Clemson had a bad game". Now I am doubting the guy has that kind of talent, but if you ask me, the guy can develop in a good enough QB, with enough talent around him he could win a SB but he is never gonna be a Brady, Manning, Mahomes, etc.
When did this accuracy problem thing start? Are there advanced passing metrics that say Trevor is significantly worse accuracy wise? Or does this mean sometimes you see him throw higher or lower than would be ideal, and the receiver doesn't make the catch?
Isn't completion percentage the closest metric to determine that? If so, he's exactly what I think he is (and most likely will be as a rookie): up and down.
Then again, how do you break down that to throws that truly weren't accurate, throws that hit the receiver in the hands, or throws where the WR ran the wrong route (e.g. the Tennessee debacle)
(12-27-2021, 03:35 PM)iHaunting Raven Wrote: [ -> ]People defend Trevor way too much when he clearly has issues (accuracy moslty) and hasn't shown that "generational talent"
People attack Trevor too much while the guy is being coached by some of the worst coaches in the league, has a mediocre O-line and WRs have dropped like 30 passes or more... Oh and now the guy doesn't have a RB.
The truth is somewhere in the middle. The guy can be good (probably not great, not top 5) with better coaching and better talent around him. I've only watched him as a Jag and his last game at Clemson. I gotta say, in that game against Ohio St I didn't see a much different QB, never saw that talent people talk about, I was unimpressed but I thought "it's just one game and Clemson had a bad game". Now I am doubting the guy has that kind of talent, but if you ask me, the guy can develop in a good enough QB, with enough talent around him he could win a SB but he is never gonna be a Brady, Manning, Mahomes, etc.
I agree in a sense that making a judgement call either way is premature (i.e. we don't exactly what he will be; I see positive signs but hey, I'm not a pro).
But some in this thread have already labeled him, and no amount of reasoning will get them to wait and see.
(12-27-2021, 03:43 PM)SamusAranX Wrote: [ -> ] (12-27-2021, 03:41 PM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ]When did this accuracy problem thing start? Are there advanced passing metrics that say Trevor is significantly worse accuracy wise? Or does this mean sometimes you see him throw higher or lower than would be ideal, and the receiver doesn't make the catch?
Isn't completion percentage the closest metric to determine that? If so, he's exactly what I think he is (and most likely will be as a rookie): up and down.
Then again, how do you break down that to throws that truly weren't accurate, throws that hit the receiver in the hands, or throws where the WR ran the wrong route (e.g. the Tennessee debacle)
That's why I said are there advanced metrics. Completion percentage ignores a lot of things, like was the pass deeper than average? How much separation are the receivers getting? Are there drops? More passes defensed, etc.
If you watch a lot of other teams I'm sure you've seen plenty of times when a QB throws to a guy and it's slightly high or behind them, but they're wide open and make the catch and run for five or ten more yards anyway.
Watching the chargers a few weeks ago made me jealous of their receivers as Herbert threw to well covered guys down the field that just got position on their defender and made a great catch.
(12-27-2021, 03:41 PM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ] (12-27-2021, 03:35 PM)iHaunting Raven Wrote: [ -> ]People defend Trevor way too much when he clearly has issues (accuracy moslty) and hasn't shown that "generational talent"
People attack Trevor too much while the guy is being coached by some of the worst coaches in the league, has a mediocre O-line and WRs have dropped like 30 passes or more... Oh and now the guy doesn't have a RB.
The truth is somewhere in the middle. The guy can be good (probably not great, not top 5) with better coaching and better talent around him. I've only watched him as a Jag and his last game at Clemson. I gotta say, in that game against Ohio St I didn't see a much different QB, never saw that talent people talk about, I was unimpressed but I thought "it's just one game and Clemson had a bad game". Now I am doubting the guy has that kind of talent, but if you ask me, the guy can develop in a good enough QB, with enough talent around him he could win a SB but he is never gonna be a Brady, Manning, Mahomes, etc.
When did this accuracy problem thing start? Are there advanced passing metrics that say Trevor is significantly worse accuracy wise? Or does this mean sometimes you see him throw higher or lower than would be ideal, and the receiver doesn't make the catch?
High, lower, behind etc, are you really gonna say he has been accurate? the pass to Austin was a perfect example. Not to mention even in the short easy passes he sometimes messes up.
(12-27-2021, 03:58 PM)iHaunting Raven Wrote: [ -> ] (12-27-2021, 03:41 PM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ]When did this accuracy problem thing start? Are there advanced passing metrics that say Trevor is significantly worse accuracy wise? Or does this mean sometimes you see him throw higher or lower than would be ideal, and the receiver doesn't make the catch?
High, lower, behind etc, are you really gonna say he has been accurate? the pass to Austin was a perfect example. Not to mention even in the short easy passes he sometimes messes up.
We watch him almost exclusively, so we focus on his mistakes in a way we don't focus on others. If he's really unusually bad then I'm sure one of the big metrics sites just have something measuring it.
(12-27-2021, 04:00 PM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ] (12-27-2021, 03:58 PM)iHaunting Raven Wrote: [ -> ]High, lower, behind etc, are you really gonna say he has been accurate? the pass to Austin was a perfect example. Not to mention even in the short easy passes he sometimes messes up.
We watch him almost exclusively, so we focus on his mistakes in a way we don't focus on others. If he's really unusually bad then I'm sure one of the big metrics sites just have something measuring it.
People like PFF when it confirms their biases. I'm looking forward to seeing what Lawrence got this week because he was better than the last weeks.
Other metrics work the same way.
Using QBR then Lawrence is 28th and has only Mills, Wilson and Fields behind him. I'd say this means he's garbage compared to quarterbacks in general but not compared to the other rookies.
(12-27-2021, 04:12 PM)CanDoBetter Wrote: [ -> ] (12-27-2021, 04:00 PM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ]We watch him almost exclusively, so we focus on his mistakes in a way we don't focus on others. If he's really unusually bad then I'm sure one of the big metrics sites just have something measuring it.
People like PFF when it confirms their biases. I'm looking forward to seeing what Lawrence got this week because he was better than the last weeks.
Other metrics work the same way.
Using QBR then Lawrence is 28th and has only Mills, Wilson and Fields behind him. I'd say this means he's garbage compared to quarterbacks in general but not compared to the other rookies.
Qbr is a joke, Zach Wilson balled out yesterday according to it. It's not an advanced metric, it's just a stat.
Like I said, though, I'd be interested to know how much worse Trevor has been accuracy wise than would be considered normal from somewhere that's doing something more than just feeding raw stats into a formula.
(12-27-2021, 04:20 PM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ] (12-27-2021, 04:12 PM)CanDoBetter Wrote: [ -> ]People like PFF when it confirms their biases. I'm looking forward to seeing what Lawrence got this week because he was better than the last weeks.
Other metrics work the same way.
Using QBR then Lawrence is 28th and has only Mills, Wilson and Fields behind him. I'd say this means he's garbage compared to quarterbacks in general but not compared to the other rookies.
Qbr is a joke, Zach Wilson balled out yesterday according to it. It's not an advanced metric, it's just a stat.
Like I said, though, I'd be interested to know how much worse Trevor has been accuracy wise than would be considered normal from somewhere that's doing something more than just feeding raw stats into a formula.
How do you find out without using stats? That's kind of the point that stats are 'objective', and metrics used on all players are better than someone's feelings or eye tests. It's especially bad when the own fans grade their own QB they really, really want to be a franchise qb.
Right now the best case is that Lawrence turns it around in 2023 and becomes the next Josh Allen. Maybe he will turn it around next year even. Like Baker Mayfield.
(12-27-2021, 04:00 PM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ] (12-27-2021, 03:58 PM)iHaunting Raven Wrote: [ -> ]High, lower, behind etc, are you really gonna say he has been accurate? the pass to Austin was a perfect example. Not to mention even in the short easy passes he sometimes messes up.
We watch him almost exclusively, so we focus on his mistakes in a way we don't focus on others. If he's really unusually bad then I'm sure one of the big metrics sites just have something measuring it.
I think both can be true. There are at times Lawrence gets a little off target with throws he should make. I know Prisco has been hammering this topic for over a month talking about Lawrence's mechanics regressing. A lot of that can be cleaned up with coaching. But I also think at times he does just get a little wild and not sure it is mechanics.
On the otherhand, watch other NFL games and count the number of times an elite QB isn't completely accurate. Was watching the packers game over the holidays and one of Davante's touchdown grabs was a throw this board would hammer Lawrence for. Think it was Davante's second touchdown. Short out pattern where he ran towards the pylon. Rodgers threw it behind him where he basically had to stop, jump, and reach back to grab it. Luckily he created enough separation where he could get his hands on it and strong enough where he could maintain position while getting hit. If Lawrence throws that pass, it probably gets picked off as our WR would have gotten zero separation and any ball thrown behind on a route like that would look like it is aimed at the DB. Best case the pass is knocked down. Either way he'd get hammered for making a poor throw.
Yes Lawrence can get more accurate but the criticism is over the top by people expecting nearly every pass need to be hitting a WR in stride between the numbers every time. Good WRs bail out QBs all the time.
(12-27-2021, 04:30 PM)CanDoBetter Wrote: [ -> ] (12-27-2021, 04:20 PM)SeldomRite Wrote: [ -> ]Qbr is a joke, Zach Wilson balled out yesterday according to it. It's not an advanced metric, it's just a stat.
Like I said, though, I'd be interested to know how much worse Trevor has been accuracy wise than would be considered normal from somewhere that's doing something more than just feeding raw stats into a formula.
How do you find out without using stats? That's kind of the point that stats are 'objective', and metrics used on all players are better than someone's feelings or eye tests. It's especially bad when the own fans grade their own QB they really, really want to be a franchise qb.
Right now the best case is that Lawrence turns it around in 2023 and becomes the next Josh Allen. Maybe he will turn it around next year even. Like Baker Mayfield.
How does measuring completions measure accuracy? It only says whether a pass was caught. An advanced metric would be doing something like measuring how many passes thrown are within a certain (catchable) radius of the target, maybe even with the radius being wider the further down field the target would be since a receiver has longer to adjust, as a percentage, for instance. Without doing something like that how can you even start to measure accuracy? When you present stats what you're really doing is presenting a result over multiple variables. I'm asking if there is a single variables metric that backs up the idea that he's inaccurate.
(12-27-2021, 02:11 PM)TearExtractor Wrote: [ -> ]Imagine comparing Lawrence to Gabbert and being happy about his stats being slightly better.
Its like being happy your are being served a second helping of [BLEEP] because they put some seasoning on it this time.
Now that’s funny right there…..i don’t care who you are.
(12-27-2021, 02:11 PM)TearExtractor Wrote: [ -> ]Imagine comparing Lawrence to Gabbert and being happy about his stats being slightly better.
Its like being happy your are being served a second helping of [BLEEP] because they put some seasoning on it this time.
I was thinking the same thing. Hilarious! Will Lawrence break 10 tds on a 17 game season? Tune in
While he has gone through a rough patch, the way so many posters seem to be aggressively attacking the guy does not make sense to me. Clearly you are fans, or you would not be on this message board at this point in a miserable season, but why try to tear down our best prospect in years just because he has had a difficult rookie campaign during a dumpster fire overall situation? What is there possibly to be gained from that?
(12-27-2021, 05:44 PM)jaguarmvp Wrote: [ -> ] (12-27-2021, 02:11 PM)TearExtractor Wrote: [ -> ]Imagine comparing Lawrence to Gabbert and being happy about his stats being slightly better.
Its like being happy your are being served a second helping of [BLEEP] because they put some seasoning on it this time.
I was thinking the same thing. Hilarious! Will Lawrence break 10 tds on a 17 game season? Tune in
Again, YOU were the one making negative comparisons saying he played like Gabbert; you were ofc shown to be dense using your own metrics. You are presented with evidence that he isn't, then throw Bortles out there, get egg on that one, and are hoisted by your own petard.