(10-09-2023, 05:12 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (10-09-2023, 04:47 PM)carp8dm Wrote: [ -> ]Football is also a game of tendencies. We came into yesterdays game having a tendency to run up the middle with Elite-EN. Yesterday, we ran more off-tack runs than I've seen all season. We also ran a few sweeps that I don't think I ever saw.
So when we ran up the middle, the defense couldn't key on the tendencies we've been doing all year long.
I mean, I'll die on this hill. I get it, that you guys think this game plan and play calling looked exactly like it did from the prior 3 games. But You're just wrong. We threw on 1st down more often in this game than we did the entire season. That along proves how wrong you guys are.
We litterally were throwing on 1st down. That was literally not what we did at all the entire season so far. And yet, you guys are telling me this is the same play calling and game plan as ever other week?
Ya'll lost your minds.
The difference in the game was third down pass completion percentage.
Not first down passes.
You've already died on that hill.
Your take is six feet under and being eaten by worms.
Execution altered the performance of this offense on Sunday and Trevor did it the hard way. Taking lumps to complete throws on third down over and over.
The defense holding the bills to 7 points for 55 minutes helped a great deal too. The offense never had a mountain to climb.
The sweeps aren't new. The off tackle runs aren't new. You're just tripping over yourself to find ways to pin past struggles on plays and play calling.
And you're failing.
Miserably.
The Jags ran the ball on 1st down 20 times yesterday - TWENTY times.
Take away three of those that were QB runs that should have been passes if pressure didn't occur quickly and you've got 17 intended runs on first down.
Jags passed on first down 13 times. 16 if you count the three failed protections turned runs/scrambles.
That is PERFECT balance and not dissimilar from what we have seen all season.
For example - last week vs ATL we passed 11 times on first down and ran 12 times on first down.
Agree to disagree.
I think what he was getting at is running up the gut but I see what you are getting at. I’m still happy we lowered the number of bubble screens as I said in above post. That is something I felt we just didn’t pull off. Now you could argue part of that is execution of the screens. But if you team isn’t pulling something off, why keep going to that well. Hitting Calvin in those short outs and back shoulder passes were chewing up yards.
I think having cam back definitely cleaned up the pocket and made it easier to call passing plays even though our boy was sacked 5 times with 22 pressures.
It did seem like more was clicking yesterday.
(10-09-2023, 05:13 PM)JagsorDie Wrote: [ -> ] (10-09-2023, 04:47 PM)carp8dm Wrote: [ -> ]Football is also a game of tendencies. We came into yesterdays game having a tendency to run up the middle with Elite-EN. Yesterday, we ran more off-tack runs than I've seen all season. We also ran a few sweeps that I don't think I ever saw.
So when we ran up the middle, the defense couldn't key on the tendencies we've been doing all year long.
I mean, I'll die on this hill. I get it, that you guys think this game plan and play calling looked exactly like it did from the prior 3 games. But You're just wrong. We threw on 1st down more often in this game than we did the entire season. That along proves how wrong you guys are.
We litterally were throwing on 1st down. That was literally not what we did at all the entire season so far. And yet, you guys are telling me this is the same play calling and game plan as ever other week?
Ya'll lost your minds.
EDIT: I went back and read over the play by play for the 1st half...
Run up the middle with ETN on 1st Down: 2
Run Outside with ETN or WR on 1st Down: 4
Pass Play on 1st Down: 9
I think you hit the nail on the head… I’m not gonna blame all of our woes in the Chiefs and Texans game on playcalling. There was certainly some execution errors. But our insistence on running it up the middle on early downs, and leaving ourselves with second and third and long was certainly a problem.
One thing I will add is I did not see very many bubbles screens , or designed running back screens yesterday, which we seemed to run a lot with very little to no success and weeks two and three. I am very happy we abandoned(or at least greatly reduced) those as well. When these plays fail they tend to be for negative yards or in some cases fumbles because of backwards passes. I’ve seen them used against us with success but for reason we rarely turn screen plays into positive yardage. Certainly not enough to run them as much as we did against Houston.
I’m not going to harp on playcalling anymore, but for people to think that there is no difference in our playcalling is just asinine there absolutely has been a shift. I don’t care who is calling them.
We did limit the screens. I'm sure we'll see them again based on matchups because Doug loves that stuff, but that was largely removed or not called.
They still ran up the middle on first down a lot though. The perception that we didn't seems to be skewed based on the success of some of those runs. (including a 1st down run behind LG for a touchdown!)
The big difference yesterday was third down efficiency. For anyone scrambling to credit the win to plays called, you should focus on those pass plays vs other games.
It won't be much different if you compare down and distance fairly - but it was the success rate there which propelled the offense.
(10-09-2023, 05:19 PM)JagsorDie Wrote: [ -> ] (10-09-2023, 05:12 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]The difference in the game was third down pass completion percentage.
Not first down passes.
You've already died on that hill.
Your take is six feet under and being eaten by worms.
Execution altered the performance of this offense on Sunday and Trevor did it the hard way. Taking lumps to complete throws on third down over and over.
The defense holding the bills to 7 points for 55 minutes helped a great deal too. The offense never had a mountain to climb.
The sweeps aren't new. The off tackle runs aren't new. You're just tripping over yourself to find ways to pin past struggles on plays and play calling.
And you're failing.
Miserably.
The Jags ran the ball on 1st down 20 times yesterday - TWENTY times.
Take away three of those that were QB runs that should have been passes if pressure didn't occur quickly and you've got 17 intended runs on first down.
Jags passed on first down 13 times. 16 if you count the three failed protections turned runs/scrambles.
That is PERFECT balance and not dissimilar from what we have seen all season.
For example - last week vs ATL we passed 11 times on first down and ran 12 times on first down.
Agree to disagree.
I think what he was getting at is running up the gut but I see what you are getting at. I’m still happy we lowered the number of bubble screens as I said in above post. That is something I felt we just didn’t pull off. Now you could argue part of that is execution of the screens. But if you team isn’t pulling something off, why keep going to that well. Hitting Calvin in those short outs and back shoulder passes were chewing up yards.
I think having cam back definitely cleaned up the pocket and made it easier to call passing plays even though our boy was sacked 5 times with 22 pressures.
It did seem like more was clicking yesterday.
Having Cam back may have helped some but he completely missed his guy coming round the edge causing a very bad looking sack/fumble that almost got Trevor killed….and missed a block and fell down on another sack. He’s good for a couple of those a game. I hope he doesn’t get our franchise quarterback hurt seriously. Walker Little is an elite LT compared to Cam.
(10-09-2023, 05:24 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (10-09-2023, 05:13 PM)JagsorDie Wrote: [ -> ]I think you hit the nail on the head… I’m not gonna blame all of our woes in the Chiefs and Texans game on playcalling. There was certainly some execution errors. But our insistence on running it up the middle on early downs, and leaving ourselves with second and third and long was certainly a problem.
One thing I will add is I did not see very many bubbles screens , or designed running back screens yesterday, which we seemed to run a lot with very little to no success and weeks two and three. I am very happy we abandoned(or at least greatly reduced) those as well. When these plays fail they tend to be for negative yards or in some cases fumbles because of backwards passes. I’ve seen them used against us with success but for reason we rarely turn screen plays into positive yardage. Certainly not enough to run them as much as we did against Houston.
I’m not going to harp on playcalling anymore, but for people to think that there is no difference in our playcalling is just asinine there absolutely has been a shift. I don’t care who is calling them.
We did limit the screens. I'm sure we'll see them again based on matchups because Doug loves that stuff, but that was largely removed or not called.
They still ran up the middle on first down a lot though. The perception that we didn't seems to be skewed based on the success of some of those runs. (including a 1st down run behind LG for a touchdown!)
The big difference yesterday was third down efficiency. For anyone scrambling to credit the win to plays called, you should focus on those pass plays vs other games.
It won't be much different if you compare down and distance fairly - but it was the success rate there which propelled the offense.
It's not that I think we should never run between the guards. But, if you just continue to telegraph a specific play constantly, especially when you have a RB like ETN that is fast and can get going off tackle, it's gonna be a problem. The games we lost, we ran a game plan that was just insane. If it was 1st down, in week 1 through 3, I could make money betting on ETN from Shotgun running between the guards. We were constantly behind the sticks on 2nd and 3rd down because of how we were using 1st down.
We came to London and we changed up the game plan and schemes. I've posted play by plays that prove it.
Now we're coming back home. If we start just running up the middle on 1st down like we did against the Chiefs and tacks, we're gonna have a hard time. Yesterday's game proves that we can run other plays and that we can still take shots deep if we keep the defense off balance on what we're planning on doing.
Yes, our O-Line sucks. But that doesn't mean we should just become a run heavy team. It means we have to be creative on offense to keep the D off balance. If you have a garbage O-Line, running on 1st down up the middle and putting the 2nd and 3rd downs on must pass plays isn't helping anyone.
If we run up the middle every 1st down and are behind the sticks on 2nd, we become predictable. We were predictable for week 2 and week 3. We won't win the division by being a run heavy team on first down. I think London proved that. And that's what I've been screaming for like a month now. This is a passing league and we have a passing QB. You gotta play to your strengths. Unless you think your OL is so bad that you just want to tank the entire season, which I don't think anyone is going to support.
(10-09-2023, 08:45 AM)Jag149 Wrote: [ -> ] (10-09-2023, 08:14 AM)Mikey Wrote: [ -> ]We didn't get yards in bunches (or points, for that matter) until the very late stages of the game.
When you smother a D like we did (TOP 2:1 advantage), that withering will eventually come. Keep in mind that at that point we were rocking Blake Hance and Shatley on the left. Maybe that was the lineup we needed all along, right?
That D was a MASH unit, and those still standing were hunched over gasping for air by the time the final whistle blew. The run game was miserable up until about mid-3rd early 4th.
Our D smothered their offense. (How many 3 and outs to begin the game?) Our offense was able to executed the plays called better. The play calling was like it had been all season. That said the game plan is always a bit different based on who we are playing. They also were playing without a number of their front line DB's and lost a real good player early on.
I would think that we've all been fans long enough to understand that holding opponents to 3 and out don't mean dook if your offensive response is 1-2-3-punt.
The D abolutely did their part, I think I saw where Buff only had 4 3 and outs all season, and opened with 2 straight this game. How often though in the past have we seen our D stall an offense, only for our response to be a backfire of our own? Seeing Etienne getting yards in bunches at the end gave me flashbacks to the days of Fred and Mojo grinding early, but going for the throat as the day drug on.
(10-09-2023, 04:31 PM)StrayaJag Wrote: [ -> ]Bigsby has 3 carries for 8 yards
Are you suggesting we should have taken the ball out of the hot hand?
This bickering is becoming tiring...maybe if some people were so smart about play calling they would be able to get a job doing it? No they like to Monday morning QB and critize
Total number of inside runs on 1st down by game:
Indy: 9 of 32 first down plays 28%
KC: 10 of 29 first down plays 34%
Houston: 11 of 32 first down plays 34%
ATL: 11 of 26 first down plays 42%
Buf: 5 of 40 first down plays 12%
Percentages rounded down to nearest whole number. There’s something the be said based on percentages that our two best offensive games were weeks 1 and 5 and they had the lowest number on 1st down inside runs. ATL surprisingly was the highest % but we also only scored 16 offensive points.
These don’t include outside runs on 1st downs or sweeps. While I don’t think it’s quite as bad as some are saying, there are some numbers to back up the idea that fewer inside runs on 1st down is more beneficial to our offense and it shows up on the scoreboard.
(10-10-2023, 07:29 PM)imtheblkranger Wrote: [ -> ]Total number of inside runs on 1st down by game:
Indy: 9 of 32 first down plays 28%
KC: 10 of 29 first down plays 34%
Houston: 11 of 32 first down plays 34%
ATL: 11 of 26 first down plays 42%
Buf: 5 of 40 first down plays 12%
Percentages rounded down to nearest whole number. There’s something the be said based on percentages that our two best offensive games were weeks 1 and 5 and they had the lowest number on 1st down inside runs. ATL surprisingly was the highest % but we also only scored 16 offensive points.
These don’t include outside runs on 1st downs or sweeps. While I don’t think it’s quite as bad as some are saying, there are some numbers to back up the idea that fewer inside runs on 1st down is more beneficial to our offense and it shows up on the scoreboard.
Box score from the bills game shows 36 first downs and 9 runs between the tackles.
That's 25%
Where did you get that number?
Since we're on the topic play calling, can someone explain to me why the Jaguars call a short run up the middle on 3rd and 36? We were on our own 36 yard line so it's not as if that run might move us into field goal range. We were still going to have to punt. Why not go for a deep ball? Maybe we make it. Maybe we get a pass interference call or a defensive penalty that provides an automatic first down. Worst comes to worst, a deeply thrown ball that is intercepted is basically the equivalent of a punt anyway. Why not go for it?
(10-10-2023, 09:25 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (10-10-2023, 07:29 PM)imtheblkranger Wrote: [ -> ]Total number of inside runs on 1st down by game:
Indy: 9 of 32 first down plays 28%
KC: 10 of 29 first down plays 34%
Houston: 11 of 32 first down plays 34%
ATL: 11 of 26 first down plays 42%
Buf: 5 of 40 first down plays 12%
Percentages rounded down to nearest whole number. There’s something the be said based on percentages that our two best offensive games were weeks 1 and 5 and they had the lowest number on 1st down inside runs. ATL surprisingly was the highest % but we also only scored 16 offensive points.
These don’t include outside runs on 1st downs or sweeps. While I don’t think it’s quite as bad as some are saying, there are some numbers to back up the idea that fewer inside runs on 1st down is more beneficial to our offense and it shows up on the scoreboard.
Box score from the bills game shows 36 first downs and 9 runs between the tackles.
That's 25%
Where did you get that number?
I went through the play by play and counted every first down play. The box score only shows earned first downs, it doesn't include the start of drive first downs. I left out first downs that were a false start/no actual play. If it was a hold or something and the play was run I counted those.
(10-10-2023, 10:04 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: [ -> ]Since we're on the topic play calling, can someone explain to me why the Jaguars call a short run up the middle on 3rd and 36? We were on our own 36 yard line so it's not as if that run might move us into field goal range. We were still going to have to punt. Why not go for a deep ball? Maybe we make it. Maybe we get a pass interference call or a defensive penalty that provides an automatic first down. Worst comes to worst, a deeply thrown ball that is intercepted is basically the equivalent of a punt anyway. Why not go for it?
Worst comes to worst, Trevor is hit from behind, the ball comes out, the Bills return the fumble for a touchdown, and Trevor is injured and lost for the season. THAT is "worst comes to worst." NOT what you described. What you described is almost a best case scenario for 3rd and 36.
(10-11-2023, 06:50 AM)imtheblkranger Wrote: [ -> ] (10-10-2023, 09:25 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]Box score from the bills game shows 36 first downs and 9 runs between the tackles.
That's 25%
Where did you get that number?
I went through the play by play and counted every first down play. The box score only shows earned first downs, it doesn't include the start of drive first downs. I left out first downs that were a false start/no actual play. If it was a hold or something and the play was run I counted those.
Play by play is part of box score technically
Mine shows all first downs
We ran inside on 25% of them
(10-11-2023, 07:06 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ] (10-10-2023, 10:04 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: [ -> ]Since we're on the topic play calling, can someone explain to me why the Jaguars call a short run up the middle on 3rd and 36? We were on our own 36 yard line so it's not as if that run might move us into field goal range. We were still going to have to punt. Why not go for a deep ball? Maybe we make it. Maybe we get a pass interference call or a defensive penalty that provides an automatic first down. Worst comes to worst, a deeply thrown ball that is intercepted is basically the equivalent of a punt anyway. Why not go for it?
Worst comes to worst, Trevor is hit from behind, the ball comes out, the Bills return the fumble for a touchdown, and Trevor is injured and lost for the season. THAT is "worst comes to worst." NOT what you described. What you described is almost a best case scenario for 3rd and 36.
Get real. That's the worst on ANY pass play. If we go by that logic, Trevor should always take a knee and never throw a pass. Yeah, that's a great strategy for winning.
(10-11-2023, 08:51 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (10-11-2023, 06:50 AM)imtheblkranger Wrote: [ -> ]I went through the play by play and counted every first down play. The box score only shows earned first downs, it doesn't include the start of drive first downs. I left out first downs that were a false start/no actual play. If it was a hold or something and the play was run I counted those.
Play by play is part of box score technically
Mine shows all first downs
We ran inside on 25% of them
Idk what to tell you, I went through the ESPN app play by play again just now and literally counted every single first down play we ran, there were 40 of them (39 actually, one was a false start) We're talking middle inside runs, not ends or tackle runs but between the guards. Not counting a Trevor scramble either. We ran 6 of those against Buffalo (just double checked this again as well) so 15% if 6/39. We only had 1 of those plays the entire first half. Which is the same type of runs I counted for the other games and I'm pretty sure what carp8dm and others were referring to. You or someone else feel free to double check my counts but that's what I found while looking it up last night.
I was a little off on my quick count last night with 5 of 40, it was actually 6 of 39.
(10-11-2023, 11:30 AM)TheDuke007 Wrote: [ -> ] (10-11-2023, 07:06 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]Worst comes to worst, Trevor is hit from behind, the ball comes out, the Bills return the fumble for a touchdown, and Trevor is injured and lost for the season. THAT is "worst comes to worst." NOT what you described. What you described is almost a best case scenario for 3rd and 36.
Get real. That's the worst on ANY pass play. If we go by that logic, Trevor should always take a knee and never throw a pass. Yeah, that's a great strategy for winning.
Get real, on 3rd and 36 you run it up the middle and punt.
(10-10-2023, 10:04 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: [ -> ]Since we're on the topic play calling, can someone explain to me why the Jaguars call a short run up the middle on 3rd and 36? We were on our own 36 yard line so it's not as if that run might move us into field goal range. We were still going to have to punt. Why not go for a deep ball? Maybe we make it. Maybe we get a pass interference call or a defensive penalty that provides an automatic first down. Worst comes to worst, a deeply thrown ball that is intercepted is basically the equivalent of a punt anyway. Why not go for it?
it's a give-up play. The run is least risk, and you have the chance of breaking a tackle and facing dime defenders on your way to yardage or you arm-punt and risk sack, INT, another penalty. The run may also let you run a play to a specific hash mark if your punter favors kicking to one sideline over the other.
(10-11-2023, 11:51 AM)Mikey Wrote: [ -> ] (10-10-2023, 10:04 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: [ -> ]Since we're on the topic play calling, can someone explain to me why the Jaguars call a short run up the middle on 3rd and 36? We were on our own 36 yard line so it's not as if that run might move us into field goal range. We were still going to have to punt. Why not go for a deep ball? Maybe we make it. Maybe we get a pass interference call or a defensive penalty that provides an automatic first down. Worst comes to worst, a deeply thrown ball that is intercepted is basically the equivalent of a punt anyway. Why not go for it?
it's a give-up play. The run is least risk, and you have the chance of breaking a tackle and facing dime defenders on your way to yardage or you arm-punt and risk sack, INT, another penalty. The run may also let you run a play to a specific hash mark if your punter favors kicking to one sideline over the other.
I probably would have given it to ETN just bc he has more game-breaking ability but either way the run is the most logical call there especially with a lead
(10-11-2023, 11:36 AM)imtheblkranger Wrote: [ -> ] (10-11-2023, 08:51 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]Play by play is part of box score technically
Mine shows all first downs
We ran inside on 25% of them
Idk what to tell you, I went through the ESPN app play by play again just now and literally counted every single first down play we ran, there were 40 of them (39 actually, one was a false start) We're talking middle inside runs, not ends or tackle runs but between the guards. Not counting a Trevor scramble either. We ran 6 of those against Buffalo (just double checked this again as well) so 15% if 6/39. We only had 1 of those plays the entire first half. Which is the same type of runs I counted for the other games and I'm pretty sure what carp8dm and others were referring to. You or someone else feel free to double check my counts but that's what I found while looking it up last night.
I was a little off on my quick count last night with 5 of 40, it was actually 6 of 39.
All good.
We're doing it a little differently -
I counted everything inside the tackles - nothing outside the tackles - and there are 2 runs that ETN ran at guard gaps that were filled so he bounced outside to make something of nothing
It's 9 designed and called runs between the tackles on first down.
I don't have time right now - but when I watch the all 22 tomorrow or Thursday I'll grab screen caps of them all to be certain about what gaps he's trying to hit on each of these. The play by play isn't always accurate on those little descriptors.
For what it's worth - I've been wanting fewer inside runs since week two and welcome it. Just trying to be accurate here.
I'd be happy if only 10% of the runs went inside on early downs unless we start to see a shift in performant from our interior line.
My only intent was to say that while I want/welcome fewer early inside runs - we didn't see any major sea change in play calling.
The game plan for the bills clearly included some wrinkles with the end arounds and a bit more aggression through the air and that's awesome. Makes sense. When the opponent are down their best CB and banged up at two other secondary spots - you gotta do what challenges those weak points.
(10-11-2023, 12:41 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ] (10-11-2023, 11:36 AM)imtheblkranger Wrote: [ -> ]Idk what to tell you, I went through the ESPN app play by play again just now and literally counted every single first down play we ran, there were 40 of them (39 actually, one was a false start) We're talking middle inside runs, not ends or tackle runs but between the guards. Not counting a Trevor scramble either. We ran 6 of those against Buffalo (just double checked this again as well) so 15% if 6/39. We only had 1 of those plays the entire first half. Which is the same type of runs I counted for the other games and I'm pretty sure what carp8dm and others were referring to. You or someone else feel free to double check my counts but that's what I found while looking it up last night.
I was a little off on my quick count last night with 5 of 40, it was actually 6 of 39.
All good.
We're doing it a little differently -
I counted everything inside the tackles - nothing outside the tackles - and there are 2 runs that ETN ran at guard gaps that were filled so he bounced outside to make something of nothing
It's 9 designed and called runs between the tackles on first down.
I don't have time right now - but when I watch the all 22 tomorrow or Thursday I'll grab screen caps of them all to be certain about what gaps he's trying to hit on each of these. The play by play isn't always accurate on those little descriptors.
For what it's worth - I've been wanting fewer inside runs since week two and welcome it. Just trying to be accurate here.
I'd be happy if only 10% of the runs went inside on early downs unless we start to see a shift in performant from our interior line.
My only intent was to say that while I want/welcome fewer early inside runs - we didn't see any major sea change in play calling.
The game plan for the bills clearly included some wrinkles with the end arounds and a bit more aggression through the air and that's awesome. Makes sense. When the opponent are down their best CB and banged up at two other secondary spots - you gotta do what challenges those weak points.
That's true.
And I do agree with your overall statement that the play calling in general has been pretty similar across all games.
Even with your 25% number, against Indy and Buf we had the lowest percentage of inside runs on first downs, and the highest offensive points scored. I think getting out there and being aggressive from the get go is working for us and getting Trevor into a rhythm quickly. The actual play designs for all the rest of the game(s) have been good with WRs getting open consistently. The execution these past two weeks did much more than the lower number of inside runs against Buffalo.
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