Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

(04-18-2020, 11:31 AM)homebiscuit Wrote: [ -> ]This reigns above all.

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Perhaps the virus is not as deadly as we thought.

https://www.foxnews.com/science/third-bl...oronavirus

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(04-18-2020, 01:10 PM)PF* Wrote: [ -> ]Ehhhh, I rarely venture over to the Political Forum but boredom has driven me here and what do I find? A coffee controversy...so I'll weigh in- it's Dunkin' all the way for me. I've tried Starbucks a couple of times and it can't compare. tastes like it's been sitting for hours.

Plus, the coffee cake muffin at DD is incomparable.

Welcome, be sure to get your "I survived the Jungle Polical Forum" t-shirt on the way out. All proceeds are used to buy me more bourbon.

(04-18-2020, 10:49 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-18-2020, 09:52 AM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]Bud, if you're out there on your own, no other males following your lead, you ain't the alpha wolf.

That you only see Alpha and Beta demonstrates the limitations of your reasoning.

Well there are omegas and loners as well obviously...

Lol, this thread is weird today. 

Put me in the coffee at home camp. 

The greedy pig in me can't bring himself to pay $5 for a pumpkin spice frappaccino. 


Also, Hong Kong's daily average visitors has fallen from 200k to 100. Hate to see it.

(04-18-2020, 01:02 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]First large scale community anti-body test in USA indicates Coronavirus cased under reported by factor of 50 to 85. 

Linkage to Reportage

FTA: “Our findings suggest that there is somewhere between 50- and 80-fold more infections in our county than what’s known by the number of cases than are reported by our department of public health," Dr. Eran Bendavid, the Stanford professor who led the study, told ABC News.

If the study's numbers are accurate, the true mortality and hospitalization rates of COVID-19 are both substantially lower than current estimates, and due to lag between infection and death, researchers project a true mortality rate between .12 and .20."

Limitations: [font=Georgia, serif]"I hesitate to give you the following numbers, because first of all they are a guess, and secondly because some will think they are too low to take action," he wrote in a message to the community. "My best guess is that approximately 2-3% of the SMC population are currently infected or have recovered from the infection.  That’s around 15-25,000 people and they are all over the county and in every community.  I don’t believe this number is off by a factor of 10, but it could be off by a factor of 2 to 3."[/font]

So, uh...Apocalypse postponed or nah?

It's a mixed bag.
We can see from New York and northern Italy that the virus is still more deadly than the flu.
And while it may feel reassuring that most of the people who get infected show no symptoms at all, this just means that the virus spreads faster. These people don't feel sick, so they don't avoid other people.
It would be a lot easier to manage an outbreak if the advice was "stay home if you're sick". But this study makes us more sure than we were before that the advice must be, "stay home". Feeling well doesn't mean you are well.
Until we're sure that we've figured out what makes people be in that one or 2% that's vulnerable to the virus, until we figure out how to help them recover better and faster, the advice doesn't really change.

(04-18-2020, 01:39 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-18-2020, 01:02 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]First large scale community anti-body test in USA indicates Coronavirus cased under reported by factor of 50 to 85. 

Linkage to Reportage

FTA: “Our findings suggest that there is somewhere between 50- and 80-fold more infections in our county than what’s known by the number of cases than are reported by our department of public health," Dr. Eran Bendavid, the Stanford professor who led the study, told ABC News.

If the study's numbers are accurate, the true mortality and hospitalization rates of COVID-19 are both substantially lower than current estimates, and due to lag between infection and death, researchers project a true mortality rate between .12 and .20."

Limitations: [font=Georgia, serif]"I hesitate to give you the following numbers, because first of all they are a guess, and secondly because some will think they are too low to take action," he wrote in a message to the community. "My best guess is that approximately 2-3% of the SMC population are currently infected or have recovered from the infection.  That’s around 15-25,000 people and they are all over the county and in every community.  I don’t believe this number is off by a factor of 10, but it could be off by a factor of 2 to 3."[/font]

So, uh...Apocalypse postponed or nah?

It's a mixed bag.
We can see from New York and northern Italy that the virus is still more deadly than the flu.

Not true

And while it may feel reassuring that most of the people who get infected show no symptoms at all, this just means that the virus spreads faster. These people don't feel sick, so they don't avoid other people.
It would be a lot easier to manage an outbreak if the advice was "stay home if you're sick". But this study makes us more sure than we were before that the advice must be, "stay home". Feeling well doesn't mean you are well.
Until we're sure that we've figured out what makes people be in that one or 2% that's vulnerable to the virus, until we figure out how to help them recover better and faster, the advice doesn't really change.

Were looking @ the total number of infections be off by orders f magnitude. Let's say it's by a factor of 20 (conservative based on this study) that means a 3.5% mortality rate is really .175 (bad flu).  

And the county surveyed was low on the infection scale (1.8k confirmed cases from 1.9 million population.)  Random sample in Mass had roughly 30% with the active infection.  

This could be the greatest evidence fiasco in history.

(04-18-2020, 02:44 PM)jj82284 Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-18-2020, 01:39 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]It's a mixed bag.
We can see from New York and northern Italy that the virus is still more deadly than the flu.

Not true

And while it may feel reassuring that most of the people who get infected show no symptoms at all, this just means that the virus spreads faster. These people don't feel sick, so they don't avoid other people.
It would be a lot easier to manage an outbreak if the advice was "stay home if you're sick". But this study makes us more sure than we were before that the advice must be, "stay home". Feeling well doesn't mean you are well.
Until we're sure that we've figured out what makes people be in that one or 2% that's vulnerable to the virus, until we figure out how to help them recover better and faster, the advice doesn't really change.

Were looking @ the total number of infections be off by orders f magnitude. Let's say it's by a factor of 20 (conservative based on this study) that means a 3.5% mortality rate is really .175 (bad flu).  

And the county surveyed was low on the infection scale (1.8k confirmed cases from 1.9 million population.)  Random sample in Mass had roughly 30% with the active infection.  

This could be the greatest evidence fiasco in history.

In terms of your chances of survival once the virus starts multiplying inside of your body, the virus might be exactly as deadly as the flu.

But the flu is not known to produce very many asymptomatic carriers. People who get the flu tend to realize they are sick and stay home, so fewer people get it overall.

this virus is deadlier than the flu because without social distancing controls, more people will get it.

(04-18-2020, 01:39 PM)Senor Fantastico Wrote: [ -> ]Lol, this thread is weird today. 

Put me in the coffee at home camp. 

The greedy pig in me can't bring himself to pay $5 for a pumpkin spice frappaccino. 


Also, Hong Kong's daily average visitors has fallen from 200k to 100. Hate to see it.

I agree.  I've never had coffee anywhere that was as good as I can make at home.  Personally, I've gotten into making cold brew.  Not iced coffee.  I'm talking about cold brew, the kind you put in the refrigerator so it can brew for 24 hours.  To me, it's so much better than brewed hot coffee.  

Speaking of Hong Kong, we went there just a few years ago.  I'm glad we got there before all the protesting and rioting, and then this coronavirus.  It'll never be the same.

And I wonder what Italy will be like now.  They had such a huge tourism business, they have to be taking a huge economic hit.  It makes me wonder if they're going to be impoverished by this pandemic.

I wouldn't be surprised if we've already turned the corner on this. As we're testing more, particularly for antibodies, we're finding more and more people who have defeated it without even having symptoms.

(04-18-2020, 03:26 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-18-2020, 02:44 PM)jj82284 Wrote: [ -> ]Were looking @ the total number of infections be off by orders f magnitude. Let's say it's by a factor of 20 (conservative based on this study) that means a 3.5% mortality rate is really .175 (bad flu).  

And the county surveyed was low on the infection scale (1.8k confirmed cases from 1.9 million population.)  Random sample in Mass had roughly 30% with the active infection.  

This could be the greatest evidence fiasco in history.

In terms of your chances of survival once the virus starts multiplying inside of your body, the virus might be exactly as deadly as the flu.

But the flu is not known to produce very many asymptomatic carriers. People who get the flu tend to realize they are sick and stay home, so fewer people get it overall.

this virus is deadlier than the flu because without social distancing controls, more people will get it.

Flu deaths this year are going to be greater than covid deaths.  

We didnt have a clear rate of infection because we based our models on the idea that this virus started on jan 21.  That assumption was faulty.  This thing has been here longer, I would guess @ least november. 

As for asymptomatic carriers that strengthens my argument not the idea that this is a unicorn pathogen that justifies 10 trillion dollars of intervention and the destruction of the economy.   We are artificially creating a depression to combat z virus that some 97% of those infected are UNAWARE and of those who are symptomatic between 95 to 98% recover.  

A couple years ago the flu hospitalized 800k people.  1.) The system held 2.) We didnt shut down the economy.  These numbers wont get close to that!

I have coronavirus fatigue. I just don’t care anymore.

I prefer Maxwell House

I drink espresso, so Starbucks is generally the best or only option. You can save money if you don't want a ton of milk by just ordering the shots and adding milk, a splash is 1" or so and is free. I usually get 4 shots, splash of milk, and a pump or 2 of flavor, iced in a veni cup. It's around $3.50 instead of the +$5 latte, etc.

At home it depends, but I like trying different roasters. Cold brew is a also good, but I generally don't have beans to make a great brew as espresso beans aren't great.

What we have here....is a failure...to percolate!

(04-18-2020, 06:42 PM)ags Wrote: [ -> ]What we have here....is a failure...to percolate!

Not me. I still use a percolator.

(04-18-2020, 07:14 PM)homebiscuit Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-18-2020, 06:42 PM)ags Wrote: [ -> ]What we have here....is a failure...to percolate!

Not me. I still use a percolator.

I’m still trying to figure out how to get it right. It’s either too weak or too strong.  Granted, I haven’t really put too much time into it. One of my winter projects over the years.  But I will say, the best cup I had was percolated. Which got me into trying it.  French press is just too easy.  Either that or I got it right the first time and repeated what I did then.  

I do find if you grind your own beans, the coffe is much better.  No matter the method of brewing.

(04-18-2020, 04:29 PM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-18-2020, 01:39 PM)Senor Fantastico Wrote: [ -> ]Lol, this thread is weird today. 

Put me in the coffee at home camp. 

The greedy pig in me can't bring himself to pay $5 for a pumpkin spice frappaccino. 


Also, Hong Kong's daily average visitors has fallen from 200k to 100. Hate to see it.

I agree.  I've never had coffee anywhere that was as good as I can make at home.  Personally, I've gotten into making cold brew.  Not iced coffee.  I'm talking about cold brew, the kind you put in the refrigerator so it can brew for 24 hours.  To me, it's so much better than brewed hot coffee.  

Speaking of Hong Kong, we went there just a few years ago.  I'm glad we got there before all the protesting and rioting, and then this coronavirus.  It'll never be the same.

And I wonder what Italy will be like now.  They had such a huge tourism business, they have to be taking a huge economic hit.  It makes me wonder if they're going to be impoverished by this pandemic.

Yo. PM me what you’re doing for a cold brew.... I got the extra free time.

(04-18-2020, 04:29 PM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-18-2020, 01:39 PM)Senor Fantastico Wrote: [ -> ]Lol, this thread is weird today. 

Put me in the coffee at home camp. 

The greedy pig in me can't bring himself to pay $5 for a pumpkin spice frappaccino. 


Also, Hong Kong's daily average visitors has fallen from 200k to 100. Hate to see it.

I agree.  I've never had coffee anywhere that was as good as I can make at home.  Personally, I've gotten into making cold brew.  Not iced coffee.  I'm talking about cold brew, the kind you put in the refrigerator so it can brew for 24 hours.  To me, it's so much better than brewed hot coffee.  

Speaking of Hong Kong, we went there just a few years ago.  I'm glad we got there before all the protesting and rioting, and then this coronavirus.  It'll never be the same.

And I wonder what Italy will be like now.  They had such a huge tourism business, they have to be taking a huge economic hit.  It makes me wonder if they're going to be impoverished by this pandemic.

Likewise. I'm not sure if this makes me more or less fancy than a Starbucks regular but I have an automatic espresso machine, all Ithough I usually just make a shot of espresso for my coffee. 

My brother lives for cold brew but I need the heat.

(04-18-2020, 07:39 PM)Cleatwood Wrote: [ -> ]

(04-18-2020, 04:29 PM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]I agree.  I've never had coffee anywhere that was as good as I can make at home.  Personally, I've gotten into making cold brew.  Not iced coffee.  I'm talking about cold brew, the kind you put in the refrigerator so it can brew for 24 hours.  To me, it's so much better than brewed hot coffee.  

Speaking of Hong Kong, we went there just a few years ago.  I'm glad we got there before all the protesting and rioting, and then this coronavirus.  It'll never be the same.

And I wonder what Italy will be like now.  They had such a huge tourism business, they have to be taking a huge economic hit.  It makes me wonder if they're going to be impoverished by this pandemic.

Yo. PM me what you’re doing for a cold brew.... I got the extra free time.

Same here, seeing multiple people claiming cold brew makes me curious

How we all doing. Man i miss sports. Looking forward to the draft. 3 more weeks of lockdown in UK but were having problems with PPE. Hospitals saying they are nearly out, government say its fine. Sunbathing is still a crime.

The police came out with 'acceptable excuses' to be outside the other day. You can drive to exercise but the time spent exercising must be considerably longer than the drive took! Keep getting told to stay in to save lives but you can go to the supermarket and buy whatever you like. Oh and this.


It also says people are not allowed to buy paint and brushes "simply to redecorate a kitchen" but can purchase tools and supplies to repair a fence "damaged in recent bad weather".

Nice and clear then!!