(03-26-2020, 02:52 PM)Gabe Wrote: [ -> ]Surpassing Italy today in case count...likely China by the end of the week, if not sooner.
There's no way we will surpass China in reality.
Chinese propaganda is not to believed.
(03-26-2020, 02:52 PM)Gabe Wrote: [ -> ]Surpassing Italy today in case count...likely China by the end of the week, if not sooner.
China has underreported the hell out of this.
(03-26-2020, 02:52 PM)Gabe Wrote: [ -> ]Surpassing Italy today in case count...likely China by the end of the week, if not sooner.
You have to keep things in perspective.
What is Italy's total population vs. the U.S.?
Density in Italy vs. New York City?
China's population?
The major problem right now is concentrated on large cities with a population of people pretty much "on top of each other". Density matters.
My point is you can't rely solely on numbers. There are other factors in the equation. My "un-scientific" opinion is that people in a more spread out community (Duval County) is likely to see numbers lower than major cities where the population is very dense (New York City) or states that are the same way (California).
Panicking is the wrong thing to do as is simply looking at numbers.
(03-26-2020, 03:10 PM)TrivialPursuit Wrote: [ -> ] (03-26-2020, 02:52 PM)Gabe Wrote: [ -> ]Surpassing Italy today in case count...likely China by the end of the week, if not sooner.
There's no way we will surpass China in reality.
Chinese propaganda is not to believed.
Smart people don't believe it. The POTUS, on the other hand...
Quote:[font=georgia,] [/font][font=georgia,]China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus. The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi[/font]
(03-26-2020, 03:06 PM)jj82284 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-26-2020, 02:52 PM)Gabe Wrote: [ -> ]Surpassing Italy today in case count...likely China by the end of the week, if not sooner.
This is actually somewhat good news. It means that even in worst case scenarios, the peak is weeks not months away and the idea that the only limit on exponential growth is as y approaches the total population was a little premature.
Ny has the deepest viral penetration in the country and their day on day hospitalization rates show a glimmer of slowing.
In the UK, imperial college now projects they will have enough ICU beds and projects total deaths at around 8 to 10 % of the original doomsday projections.
...because of social distancing /quarantining.
They have to keep it up.
So do we.
(03-26-2020, 05:50 PM)rollerjag Wrote: [ -> ] (03-26-2020, 03:10 PM)TrivialPursuit Wrote: [ -> ]There's no way we will surpass China in reality.
Chinese propaganda is not to believed.
Smart people don't believe it. The POTUS, on the other hand...
Quote:[font=georgia,] [/font][font=georgia,]China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus. The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi[/font]
You may know someone is not telling you the truth, but it will do more damage to call them out on it. They may also be sharing the real info behind closed doors and not sharing it with us.
(03-26-2020, 05:10 PM)jagibelieve Wrote: [ -> ] (03-26-2020, 02:52 PM)Gabe Wrote: [ -> ]Surpassing Italy today in case count...likely China by the end of the week, if not sooner.
You have to keep things in perspective.
What is Italy's total population vs. the U.S.?
Density in Italy vs. New York City?
China's population?
The major problem right now is concentrated on large cities with a population of people pretty much "on top of each other". Density matters.
My point is you can't rely solely on numbers. There are other factors in the equation. My "un-scientific" opinion is that people in a more spread out community (Duval County) is likely to see numbers lower than major cities where the population is very dense (New York City) or states that are the same way (California).
Panicking is the wrong thing to do as is simply looking at numbers.
If you put two identical spores into two petri dishes, and they have the same kind of agar, the two colonies will grow exactly the same rate, regardless of if one petri dish is bigger than the other.
The smaller one will fill up faster, but the moment it fills up, the colony in the larger one should be the same size.
If you want the two colonies to grow a different rates, you have to intervene. Add stuff to the agar to slow the growth down.
(03-26-2020, 06:22 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ] (03-26-2020, 03:06 PM)jj82284 Wrote: [ -> ]This is actually somewhat good news. It means that even in worst case scenarios, the peak is weeks not months away and the idea that the only limit on exponential growth is as y approaches the total population was a little premature.
Ny has the deepest viral penetration in the country and their day on day hospitalization rates show a glimmer of slowing.
In the UK, imperial college now projects they will have enough ICU beds and projects total deaths at around 8 to 10 % of the original doomsday projections.
...because of social distancing /quarantining.
They have to keep it up.
So do we.
Who needs the nutmeg now, brother?
Case numbers don't really mean much country to country as it is a sign of how much testing has taken place.
However it's been clear for a while that it is rampant in some areas of the US. Unfortunately looks like you are about to become the next Italy. Was always a worry with your health system. Stay at home.
(03-26-2020, 06:42 PM)lastonealive Wrote: [ -> ]Case numbers don't really mean much country to country as it is a sign of how much testing has taken place.
However it's been clear for a while that it is rampant in some areas of the US. Unfortunately looks like you are about to become the next Italy. Was always a worry with your health system. Stay at home.
My God you are terribly mis-informed.
I don't blame you.. my mother is scared beyond reason because all she listens to is German news (being German herself)
They have the lowest CFR by FAR.
(03-26-2020, 06:22 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ] (03-26-2020, 03:06 PM)jj82284 Wrote: [ -> ]This is actually somewhat good news. It means that even in worst case scenarios, the peak is weeks not months away and the idea that the only limit on exponential growth is as y approaches the total population was a little premature.
Ny has the deepest viral penetration in the country and their day on day hospitalization rates show a glimmer of slowing.
In the UK, imperial college now projects they will have enough ICU beds and projects total deaths at around 8 to 10 % of the original doomsday projections.
...because of social distancing /quarantining.
They have to keep it up.
So do we.
Nah bruh, don't give me that crap. not today. These people sold the world that if we didn't shut down civilization until we found a vaccine that we were looking at 2 million deaths in the US and 500k deaths in the UK. today in parliment, the lead researcher testified that in reality, we are only looking at potentially 20k deaths in the UK and extrapolating that means that we would have been looking at 80k deaths in the US. That is one hell of a flu season, but not completely out of line with a really bad flu season. Moreover, they expect the peak of the infection to occur in 2 to three weeks not 2 to three years. Why?Because the rates of mortality and morbidity are nothing like the early days of wuhan or italy. Italy is the outlier, not the rule. roughly about 24% of adults between 18 to 49 live with their parents. That model was never analogous to the US or most western countries.
This is the model that caused the globe to shut down. This is the model that just rang up a 2 trillion dollar tab and 3 million unemployed (which is about to skyrocket even further with the draft error in the stimulus package) But hey, its only our economy. IT's only going to be 20% unemployment, and depression era economics. It's not like we cast aside every lesson we ever learned in the history of fighting viruses. IT's not like we bought a computer model that had an infection rate 2 times that of the SPANISH FLU!!! I can't believe this @#$P(
Even worse, we did this before the first treatment trial was finished, before the change of season that would have reduced transmission and really before we had any real picture of what the mortality and morbidity rate would have been in the US population. This is going to be studied as one of the most massive government overreactions in the history of modern civilization. I pray to God that we aren't too late to save some semblance of the Market economy. I'm speechless right now.
(03-26-2020, 06:22 PM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ] (03-26-2020, 03:06 PM)jj82284 Wrote: [ -> ]This is actually somewhat good news. It means that even in worst case scenarios, the peak is weeks not months away and the idea that the only limit on exponential growth is as y approaches the total population was a little premature.
Ny has the deepest viral penetration in the country and their day on day hospitalization rates show a glimmer of slowing.
In the UK, imperial college now projects they will have enough ICU beds and projects total deaths at around 8 to 10 % of the original doomsday projections.
...because of social distancing /quarantining.
They have to keep it up.
So do we.
Lol, flawed models, same as the global warming hysteria.
(03-26-2020, 07:10 PM)TrivialPursuit Wrote: [ -> ] (03-26-2020, 06:42 PM)lastonealive Wrote: [ -> ]Case numbers don't really mean much country to country as it is a sign of how much testing has taken place.
However it's been clear for a while that it is rampant in some areas of the US. Unfortunately looks like you are about to become the next Italy. Was always a worry with your health system. Stay at home.
My God you are terribly mis-informed.
I don't blame you.. my mother is scared beyond reason because all she listens to is German news (being German herself)
They have the lowest CFR by FAR.
While CFR essentially means nothing as nobody knows in reality how many cases they have, I'd love to see you back that up with a recent source.
If you want to base it off CFR Australia, South Korea, Germany, Norway, Canada are all lower from what I can see.
Possible new 3d printer that allows one ventilator to treat 4 patients.
Cheesecake Factory will not be paying April rent on any of their stores.
Am I the only one who finds it odd that a company of that magnitude couldn't budget for a 1 month setback?
FACT. #CheesecakeFactory revenue $2.276 BILLION
#DavidOverton CEO Total Compensation $6,267,151
#DavidMGordon President, $2,076,316
(03-26-2020, 04:18 PM)TJBender Wrote: [ -> ] (03-26-2020, 02:52 PM)Gabe Wrote: [ -> ]Surpassing Italy today in case count...likely China by the end of the week, if not sooner.
China has underreported the hell out of this.
China also shut down the entire Hubai area to stop the spread. USA will definitely pass China....it's not if but when.
(03-26-2020, 06:42 PM)lastonealive Wrote: [ -> ]Case numbers don't really mean much country to country as it is a sign of how much testing has taken place.
However it's been clear for a while that it is rampant in some areas of the US. Unfortunately looks like you are about to become the next Italy. Was always a worry with your health system. Stay at home.
The only reliable statistic is deaths per capita. Both are calculable with the most accuracy.
Confirmed cases / unconfirmed / tested all vary too much.
The BIG question right now is, how many asymptomatic cases have we had already? We have no idea, because we're only testing people with symptoms.
If it turns out that there is a huge underlying population of people who have had the virus and not even known it, and they now have immunity, that would be enormously great news, because it would mean we are building the kind of herd immunity that would cause the infection rate to level off.
MSM is getting pressure to not show Trump daily briefings because his poll and approval numbers are going through the roof. Scary stuff.
(03-27-2020, 06:29 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]The BIG question right now is, how many asymptomatic cases have we had already? We have no idea, because we're only testing people with symptoms.
If it turns out that there is a huge underlying population of people who have had the virus and not even known it, and they now have immunity, that would be enormously great news, because it would mean we are building the kind of herd immunity that would cause the infection rate to level off.
This whole panic is based on selection bias, we simply don't know and all you see are inflammatory worst case scenarios that have zero chance of occurring.