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I think it's more likely that actually you are worried about your job and the economy. I guess it's easier to try and dismiss scientists than just be honest that you will take more deaths if it means less economic /lifestyle impact for you.

A bit of introspection may even take you a bit further and think, hey voting to have healthcare tied to my job and a poor safety net was a bad idea with hindsight because I didn't think I would lose my job and just wanted hardship on other people.

(05-06-2020, 10:17 PM)lastonealive Wrote: [ -> ]You do acknowledge that there are some hefty risk mitigation that is in place to reduce deaths?

Or are you saying that his model was taking this into account?

Let me guess, you guys don't work in risk or in numbers.

Did you read the link? His predictions were high by orders of magnitude on several different infections. Mitigation reduces the peak deaths, not the overall deaths, and not by a factor of 100. 

Ferguson is flat out incompetent. The only reason he had a job is that government never gets rid of it's employees for incompetence. In this case he no longer is employed by the British government, but it was for his indiscretion, not his incredibly poor job performance. Had he not broken quarantine with a married woman he'd still be spitting out garbage predictions on taxpayers' money.

I started to read the link, but it was so unprofessionally written and the quality of the quotes that I stopped. I assume that's not a reputable publication?

He figured 500k in deaths for UK. Now I don't know what it was based off but would get a similar result if it was a 1percent death rate and 75 percent of the population getting it.

The measures that have been put in place have dramatically reduced the amount of people who have been infected at this point than if they had done nothing. The other factor you haven't considered is the health demand exceeding capacity which would massively increase death rate.

(05-06-2020, 11:18 PM)lastonealive Wrote: [ -> ]I started to read the link, but it was so unprofessionally written and the quality of the quotes that I stopped. I assume that's not a reputable publication?

He figured 500k in deaths for UK. Now I don't know what it was based off but would get a similar result if it was a 1percent death rate and 75 percent of the population getting it.

The measures that have been put in place have dramatically reduced the amount of people who have been infected at this point than if they had done nothing. The other factor you haven't considered is the health demand exceeding capacity which would massively increase death rate.

So you don't read the article (and National Review is a very professional magazine you fool!) but yet you comment on only his latest failure? He has a history of even worse exaggerations of doom.

And why do you think he's a "scientist"?

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(05-05-2020, 07:15 AM)Byron LeftTown Wrote: [ -> ]Anybody else catch the fake news about reopening the Duval beaches?  #FloridaMorons hashtag accompanied by a picture showing people on a beach. 
The picture was taken in California in February.  Note the line of hills in the background.  Nothing like that in Duval.

Well if that is reputable over there, I understand your frustrations with the media.

Again I understand you want to blame these guys as otherwise you are acknowledging that to reopen the economy is risking deaths and that you are led by your own self interest.

(05-06-2020, 10:17 PM)lastonealive Wrote: [ -> ]You do acknowledge that there are some hefty risk mitigation that is in place to reduce deaths?

Or are you saying that his model was taking this into account?

Let me guess, you guys don't work in risk or in numbers.

Bruh....  not today

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(05-06-2020, 11:18 PM)lastonealive Wrote: [ -> ]I started to read the link, but it was so unprofessionally written and the quality of the quotes that I stopped. I assume that's not a reputable publication?

He figured 500k in deaths for UK. Now I don't know what it was based off but would get a similar result if it was a 1percent death rate and 75 percent of the population getting it.

The measures that have been put in place have dramatically reduced the amount of people who have been infected at this point than if they had done nothing. The other factor you haven't considered is the health demand exceeding capacity which would massively increase death rate.

Progressivism knows no borders.

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(05-06-2020, 11:27 PM)MalabarJag Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-06-2020, 11:18 PM)lastonealive Wrote: [ -> ]I started to read the link, but it was so unprofessionally written and the quality of the quotes that I stopped. I assume that's not a reputable publication?

He figured 500k in deaths for UK. Now I don't know what it was based off but would get a similar result if it was a 1percent death rate and 75 percent of the population getting it.

The measures that have been put in place have dramatically reduced the amount of people who have been infected at this point than if they had done nothing. The other factor you haven't considered is the health demand exceeding capacity which would massively increase death rate.

So you don't read the article (and National Review is a very professional magazine you fool!) but yet you comment on only his latest failure? He has a history of even worse exaggerations of doom.

And why do you think he's a "scientist"?

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(05-05-2020, 07:15 AM)Byron LeftTown Wrote: [ -> ]Anybody else catch the fake news about reopening the Duval beaches?  #FloridaMorons hashtag accompanied by a picture showing people on a beach. 
The picture was taken in California in February.  Note the line of hills in the background.  Nothing like that in Duval.

Did cnn really run that image?

(05-06-2020, 11:37 PM)lastonealive Wrote: [ -> ]Well if that is reputable over there, I understand your frustrations with the media.

Again I understand you want to blame these guys as otherwise you are acknowledging that to reopen the economy is risking deaths and that you are led by your own self interest.

"The other factor you haven't considered is the health demand exceeding capacity which would massively increase death rate."

Is COVID 19 the only threat to human mortality?

(05-06-2020, 10:40 PM)lastonealive Wrote: [ -> ]I think it's more likely that actually you are worried about your job and the economy. I guess it's easier to try and dismiss scientists than just be honest that you will take more deaths if it means less economic /lifestyle impact for you.

A bit of introspection may even take you a bit further and think, hey voting to have healthcare tied to my job and a poor safety net was a bad idea with hindsight because I didn't think I would lose my job and just wanted hardship on other people.

So, if you lost your job and your economy went to [BLEEP] because of the incompetence of those who are supposed to know what the hell they're talking about, you wouldn't be concerned?

(05-07-2020, 02:02 AM)americus 2.0 Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-06-2020, 10:40 PM)lastonealive Wrote: [ -> ]I think it's more likely that actually you are worried about your job and the economy. I guess it's easier to try and dismiss scientists than just be honest that you will take more deaths if it means less economic /lifestyle impact for you.

A bit of introspection may even take you a bit further and think, hey voting to have healthcare tied to my job and a poor safety net was a bad idea with hindsight because I didn't think I would lose my job and just wanted hardship on other people.

So, if you lost your job and your economy went to [BLEEP] because of the incompetence of those who are supposed to know what the hell they're talking about, you wouldn't be concerned?

Of course he wouldn't, his daddy government loves him.

(05-07-2020, 12:54 AM)jj82284 Wrote: [ -> ]

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(05-06-2020, 11:27 PM)MalabarJag Wrote: [ -> ]So you don't read the article (and National Review is a very professional magazine you fool!) but yet you comment on only his latest failure? He has a history of even worse exaggerations of doom.

And why do you think he's a "scientist"?

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Did cnn really run that image?

The fact that you even think it could be real tells you everything you have to know.

CNN has become one giant meme. Jeff Zucker must be proud. Outside of travelers forced to watch in airports, I can't figure out for the life of me who turns to CNN for their news. I feel sorry for them.

(05-07-2020, 02:02 AM)americus 2.0 Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-06-2020, 10:40 PM)lastonealive Wrote: [ -> ]I think it's more likely that actually you are worried about your job and the economy. I guess it's easier to try and dismiss scientists than just be honest that you will take more deaths if it means less economic /lifestyle impact for you.

A bit of introspection may even take you a bit further and think, hey voting to have healthcare tied to my job and a poor safety net was a bad idea with hindsight because I didn't think I would lose my job and just wanted hardship on other people.

So, if you lost your job and your economy went to [BLEEP] because of the incompetence of those who are supposed to know what the hell they're talking about, you wouldn't be concerned?

Don't be silly, surely we all just wanted to project hardship on others....

(05-06-2020, 10:40 PM)lastonealive Wrote: [ -> ]I think it's more likely that actually you are worried about your job and the economy. I guess it's easier to try and dismiss scientists than just be honest that you will take more deaths if it means less economic /lifestyle impact for you.

A bit of introspection may even take you a bit further and think, hey voting to have healthcare tied to my job and a poor safety net was a bad idea with hindsight because I didn't think I would lose my job and just wanted hardship on other people.

The lifeblood of statism is ignorance.  

Take a look around your house.  Everything that you dont personally produce and harvest from raw materials is the product of ECONOMIC ACTIVITY.  that includes food you eat, medicine you take and healthcare you seek.  That economic activity is interconnected to such a degree that no one person fully understands all the supply chains it takes to make a pencil, let alone all the things we need to survive.  Cutting that off would cause a societal collapse the likes of which no one can understand.  As we speak cancer patients, coronary patients, patients with brain ailments etc. Are being pushed to the back of an imaginary line and were bracing ourselves for real food shortages.  If you dont understand that then that's your problem.  Your not going to spout this jobs versus lives crap when prospective cancer patients can't get biopsies and heart surgeries are being cancelled.



Not to mention that the population only has about 14 says of this crap left before the second amendment kicks in.

(05-06-2020, 11:37 PM)lastonealive Wrote: [ -> ]Well if that is reputable over there, I understand your frustrations with the media.

Again I understand you want to blame these guys as otherwise you are acknowledging that to reopen the economy is risking deaths and that you are led by your own self interest.

You understand nothing.

It's not my self interest here, it's in the interest of everyone to not let such idiots determine government policy.


"Risking deaths?" Shutting down the economy does not lower the number of deaths, it was only intended to slow them down so the hospitals wouldn't get overwhelmed. A shortage of ICUs hasn't happened anywhere but Italy (maybe China since the info coming from there is unreliable). It hasn't even come close to happening in most places. It hasn't happened in Sweden or other countries without a lockdown. If the hospitals did get overwhelmed then there would be more deaths of course, but not anywhere close to an order of magnitude more (or even a factor of 2). And if you read further you'd see that his prediction for Sweden, which did not lockdown, was still a huge overestimate.

My post was not criticizing the lockdown, it was criticizing those who put a totally incompetent idiot in charge. If you weren't so delicate as to not be able to read an article you deem unreputable you would have gotten to the part:

Quote:In 2002, Ferguson predicted that up to 50,000 people would likely die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. [font=Georgia, serif]In the U.K., there were only 177 deaths from BSE.[/font]

In 2005, Ferguson predicted that up to 150 million people could be killed from bird flu. In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.

 
Calling him a "scientist" is an insult to real scientists. His first prediction is off by a factor of 300, more than two orders of magnitude. The second by a factor of 500,000, nearly six orders of magnitude! Yet this "scientist" was still being relied on (and paid) to make estimates of the Wuhan virus death rate, and governments were clueless enough to actually base policy on his estimates.

If you want to keep defending this incompetent then I've lost all respect for you. By comparison he makes Gene Smith look like a genius.

(05-07-2020, 09:50 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-07-2020, 12:54 AM)jj82284 Wrote: [ -> ]

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Did cnn really run that image?

The fact that you even think it could be real tells you everything you have to know.

CNN has become one giant meme. Jeff Zucker must be proud. Outside of travelers forced to watch in airports, I can't figure out for the life of me who turns to CNN for their news. I feel sorry for them.

That was going to be my response. CNN and other Leftist media have gone so far off track that Snopes is now fact-checking satire from The Babylon Bee because it's too close to reality.

So now one of Trump's personal valets had tested positive for Covid-19.

If the guy was close to Trump, and had the virus, Trump might have the virus.

(05-07-2020, 04:14 PM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]So now one of Trump's personal valets had tested positive for Covid-19.  

If the guy was close to Trump, and had the virus, Trump might have the virus.

I'm sure a few here would celebrate that.

(05-07-2020, 04:20 PM)Jagwired Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-07-2020, 04:14 PM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]So now one of Trump's personal valets had tested positive for Covid-19.  

If the guy was close to Trump, and had the virus, Trump might have the virus.

I'm sure a few here would celebrate that.

I wouldn't celebrate it, but one of my friends who is a Trump supporter said he hoped Trump did get Covid-19, and hoped he got quarantined, because he wants to see Trump re-elected and he thinks that if Trump would just shut up for a while he might have a better chance.  <I am not making that up.

(05-07-2020, 10:16 AM)MalabarJag Wrote: [ -> ]

(05-07-2020, 09:50 AM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]The fact that you even think it could be real tells you everything you have to know.

CNN has become one giant meme. Jeff Zucker must be proud. Outside of travelers forced to watch in airports, I can't figure out for the life of me who turns to CNN for their news. I feel sorry for them.

That was going to be my response. CNN and other Leftist media have gone so far off track that Snopes is now fact-checking satire from The Babylon Bee because it's too close to reality.

A Rundown Of Major U.S. Corporate Media’s Business Ties To China

MSNBC: Make Sure Nobody Blames Communists

CBS: Continuous Bolshevik Stream

NBC: Nonstop Bolshevik Channel

ABC: All Bolshevik Channel

CNN: Communists Not News

CNBC: Communists Not Bad Channel

CBC: Communists Broadcast Channel

BBC: Broadcasting Bolshevism Continuously

PBS: Paid By Soros

NYT: New Yuan Times

NPR: New People’s Republic

WaPo: Washington’s Propaganda Organ

I was once concerned when I had mild symptoms.  At the time (when the outbreak was starting) I had "symptoms" related to the virus.  I don't know if I had it or not, but at the time I was concerned NOT scared.  I am in my 50's and in reasonably good health, so the chances of me succumbing to the virus is pretty much minimal.

With that being said, we know much more now than we did in the beginning of March.  The virus is NOT a plague.  If you get it  it's not an immediate "death sentence".  In fact, in my opinion it's probably better for healthy people to get it and get over it.  Sheltering in our homes does not "stop" it, it only slows the spread.  The more people that "get it" and get over it the more people that there are that are immune to it.

The reason for "sheltering in place" was to SLOW the spread and not overwhelm hospitals.  At the time orders were placed it was the right thing to do because we had no idea how bad this could be.  However, in places it has been proven that the need to do such a thing is not necessary.  Right here in Jacksonville hospitals are operating at 25% or less capacity.

In my opinion people that are not in a "high risk" group should go about their lives and go about business.  People in a high risk group should probably take the extra precautions.

To be clear. He was NOT SCARED.