(03-16-2020, 10:16 AM)Senor Fantastico Wrote: [ -> ] (03-16-2020, 10:09 AM)TrivialPursuit Wrote: [ -> ]That's not what I'm saying.. his number would only be accurate if 100 million OLD people got infected.
If 100 million YOUNG HEALTHY people get it, the number would be ZERO.
Not really how that works.
(03-16-2020, 09:44 AM)Gabe Wrote: [ -> ]Combining everyone's social behavior over the past weekend with the new testing capacity (apparently), we're nowhere near flattening the curve. I'm expecting to see a vertical spike in the next week accompanied by nationwide panic - then we'll start to see it taper off.
Here's a good article that illustrates the social distancing stuff well.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/...simulator/
I saw that over the weekend. Very good and understandable article from a #fakenews source. /s
FWIW, as of 2018, there were nearly 73 million US residents that were 60 or older. We should be taking this very seriously.
(03-16-2020, 08:30 AM)Last42min Wrote: [ -> ]
JJ is on to something. I have been depressed the last 2 days because the numbers are starting to bother me. Doing the math, if people don't quarantine, we are going to overwhelm our hospital system. The virus doubles every day. At 4 cases currently, we will be at 65k cases in 2 weeks. On the flip side, if we flatten the curve, we are going to destroy our economy, because we are going to expose ourselves to the virus too slowly. Even if everyone self-quarantined for 30 days, there will still be transmission at the grocery stores, which means there will still be cases after 30 days, only the general population hasn't been exposed and we start all over.
The only thing that makes sense is to quarantine all households with an occupant over the age of 45. All households without any persons over the age of 45 should go to school and work. This way, we expose a significant portion of our populace to the virus without overwhelming our medical system. After 30 days, we change the restriction to 65 and over. None of this is exact math, but the idea is to keep our economy moving while limiting the threat to our healthcare system.
You can't be serious. Do you have the faintest idea of the impact this would have on the country's ability to function?
Deblasio is talking about full on nationalization of industries. We have to be careful. The ultimate casualty in most scenarios like this is freedom.
(03-16-2020, 10:56 AM)jj82284 Wrote: [ -> ] (03-16-2020, 09:28 AM)TrivialPursuit Wrote: [ -> ]As soon as the Florida heat comes back this virus will die. At least here anyway.
Fingers crossed
Let's hope so, but if you look at this map, there are a lot of cases in very warm weather climates.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
(03-16-2020, 11:03 AM)jj82284 Wrote: [ -> ]Deblasio is talking about full on nationalization of industries. We have to be careful. The ultimate casualty in most scenarios like this is freedom.
It's inevitable, in a time like this, there will be some people flailing around with ridiculous ideas. Deblasio on one hand wants to go full communism, and Devin Nunes on the other side is urging everyone to go out to their local bars and restaurants.
(03-16-2020, 11:05 AM)MalabarJag Wrote: [ -> ] (03-16-2020, 10:15 AM)Gabe Wrote: [ -> ]Does it state anywhere that 2.5% mortality is only in those 65+? IIRC, it's averaged among all who test positive.
FWIW, my wife is healthy and young, but she's a recovering asthmatic and is absolutely terrified.
Exactly! The 2.5% mortality rate is averaged over the population. It's much higher for OLD people.
I'm still going with the 0.5% number from the cruise ship analysis. That seems to be the most well-determined estimate. 0.5% is still bad (and it's 7.3% for those over 70) but not destroy-the-economy level bad.
The scariest thing for me in all of this: the 2-14 day incubation period before symptoms show (if they show at all). Young people are substantially less at risk than older - yet the communicability remains constant. Even at .5%, that's a scary potential for this country. I'm not jumping to .5% of the entire US population, but it's not out of the realm of possibility considering that people are still congregating like lemmings, even with office, school, sporting/general event cancellations.
Because of our woeful lack of testing capacity, I'm deducing that a substantial amount of people have it, despite not showing symptoms. I'm wondering what it will take for people to take social distancing seriously.
(03-16-2020, 11:16 AM)Gabe Wrote: [ -> ] (03-16-2020, 11:05 AM)MalabarJag Wrote: [ -> ]Exactly! The 2.5% mortality rate is averaged over the population. It's much higher for OLD people.
I'm still going with the 0.5% number from the cruise ship analysis. That seems to be the most well-determined estimate. 0.5% is still bad (and it's 7.3% for those over 70) but not destroy-the-economy level bad.
The scariest thing for me in all of this: the 2-14 day incubation period before symptoms show (if they show at all). Young people are substantially less at risk than older - yet the communicability remains constant. Even at .5%, that's a scary potential for this country. I'm not jumping to .5% of the entire US population, but it's not out of the realm of possibility considering that people are still congregating like lemmings, even with office, school, sporting/general event cancellations.
Because of our woeful lack of testing capacity, I'm deducing that a substantial amount of people have it, despite not showing symptoms. I'm wondering what it will take for people to take social distancing seriously.
I think maybe if a few famous people die from it, people will start waking up.
The disquieting thing now is, there are some young healthy people that are dying from it.
It’s hard to convince people social distancing is necessary but they still go to work and interact with the public all day
(03-16-2020, 11:50 AM)EricC85 Wrote: [ -> ]It’s hard to convince people social distancing is necessary but they still go to work and interact with the public all day
I'm baffled as to why my employer still has me working - even though I can do it completely remote, but shouldershrugemoji. I guess because St. Johns County hasn't been hit hard... yet.
(03-16-2020, 11:24 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ] (03-16-2020, 11:16 AM)Gabe Wrote: [ -> ]The scariest thing for me in all of this: the 2-14 day incubation period before symptoms show (if they show at all). Young people are substantially less at risk than older - yet the communicability remains constant. Even at .5%, that's a scary potential for this country. I'm not jumping to .5% of the entire US population, but it's not out of the realm of possibility considering that people are still congregating like lemmings, even with office, school, sporting/general event cancellations.
Because of our woeful lack of testing capacity, I'm deducing that a substantial amount of people have it, despite not showing symptoms. I'm wondering what it will take for people to take social distancing seriously.
I think maybe if a few famous people die from it, people will start waking up.
The disquieting thing now is, there are some young healthy people that are dying from it.
Until it strikes a friend or relative, it's "out of sight, out of mind" for many people. I drove through the Neptune/Atlantic beach town center area Saturday night and every bar and restauraunt had a crowd. No noticeable sign of any self-quarantining, it looked just like any other weekend.
(03-16-2020, 11:13 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ] (03-16-2020, 10:56 AM)jj82284 Wrote: [ -> ]Fingers crossed
Let's hope so, but if you look at this map, there are a lot of cases in very warm weather climates.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
(03-16-2020, 11:03 AM)jj82284 Wrote: [ -> ]Deblasio is talking about full on nationalization of industries. We have to be careful. The ultimate casualty in most scenarios like this is freedom.
It's inevitable, in a time like this, there will be some people flailing around with ridiculous ideas. Deblasio on one hand wants to go full communism, and Devin Nunes on the other side is urging everyone to go out to their local bars and restaurants.
True, but the globe as a whole is in seasonal transition in the southern hemisphere there entering the fall here were just emerging into spring. Hopefully in the northern hemisphere emerging summer will help blunt the transmission curve. I pray for Australia.
(03-16-2020, 12:03 PM)Sneakers Wrote: [ -> ] (03-16-2020, 11:24 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]I think maybe if a few famous people die from it, people will start waking up.
The disquieting thing now is, there are some young healthy people that are dying from it.
Until it strikes a friend or relative, it's "out of sight, out of mind" for many people. I drove through the Neptune/Atlantic beach town center area Saturday night and every bar and restauraunt had a crowd. No noticeable sign of any self-quarantining, it looked just like any other weekend.
TBH, I don't blame them so much. For a couple of reasons:
1. Social distancing is a relatively novel concept for most people.
2. Covid-19 has been highly politicized, so when good, helpful information is made available, it's not taken seriously.
3. Covid-19 has been substantially downplayed by US leadership up until the past 3-5 days. Lack of preparation/testing capacity has and will continue to play a huge role.
4. People are having an unsurprisingly hurricane-esque response to it: completely discounting the threat or completely panicking about it. Everyone in-between don't know what to do, so business as usual.
Trump is going to give a new press conference at 3pm this afternoon. Considering the market's continued free-fall even after a bump from his corporate talent show press conference on Friday, I expect him to implore as much self quarantining as possible. This will get worse before it gets better. I have to believe that people's trust in him is wavering, even in his base - which is my logical interpretation given how things have progressively gotten worse despite every action he's taken or statement he's made. He's got to do something drastic to slow the flow.
Gabe Gabbert, stop being suck a scary cat. Live life to the fullest till the end. Never hide in your house curled in the fetal position in fear.
(03-16-2020, 12:20 PM)Gabe Wrote: [ -> ] (03-16-2020, 12:03 PM)Sneakers Wrote: [ -> ]Until it strikes a friend or relative, it's "out of sight, out of mind" for many people. I drove through the Neptune/Atlantic beach town center area Saturday night and every bar and restauraunt had a crowd. No noticeable sign of any self-quarantining, it looked just like any other weekend.
TBH, I don't blame them so much. For a couple of reasons:
1. Social distancing is a relatively novel concept for most people.
2. Covid-19 has been highly politicized, so when good, helpful information is made available, it's not taken seriously.
3. Covid-19 has been substantially downplayed by US leadership up until the past 3-5 days. Lack of preparation/testing capacity has and will continue to play a huge role.
4. People are having an unsurprisingly hurricane-esque response to it: completely discounting the threat or completely panicking about it. Everyone in-between don't know what to do, so business as usual.
Trump is going to give a new press conference at 3pm this afternoon. Considering the market's continued free-fall even after a bump from his corporate talent show press conference on Friday, I expect him to implore as much self quarantining as possible. This will get worse before it gets better. I have to believe that people's trust in him is wavering, even in his base - which is my logical interpretation given how things have progressively gotten worse despite every action he's taken or statement he's made. He's got to do something drastic to slow the flow.
Things are going to get progressively worse no matter what he does because we are on the up slope of the curve. Politically he's [BLEEP] because we're panicked now and there is no response that will seen as good from every perspective.
My question.... are the people partying in bars and restaurants the ones who bought all the toilet paper? That's just way too stupid to exist.
Me and my family are self-quarantining as much as possible... but with necessary trips to grocery stores it's impossible to avoid transmission. So I just stay away from the elderly just as a precaution. And that's honestly all everyone needs to do to mitigate it... but sadly people are dumb.
(03-16-2020, 12:20 PM)Gabe Wrote: [ -> ] (03-16-2020, 12:03 PM)Sneakers Wrote: [ -> ]Until it strikes a friend or relative, it's "out of sight, out of mind" for many people. I drove through the Neptune/Atlantic beach town center area Saturday night and every bar and restauraunt had a crowd. No noticeable sign of any self-quarantining, it looked just like any other weekend.
TBH, I don't blame them so much. For a couple of reasons:
1. Social distancing is a relatively novel concept for most people.
2. Covid-19 has been highly politicized, so when good, helpful information is made available, it's not taken seriously.
3. Covid-19 has been substantially downplayed by US leadership up until the past 3-5 days. Lack of preparation/testing capacity has and will continue to play a huge role.
4. People are having an unsurprisingly hurricane-esque response to it: completely discounting the threat or completely panicking about it. Everyone in-between don't know what to do, so business as usual.
Trump is going to give a new press conference at 3pm this afternoon. Considering the market's continued free-fall even after a bump from his corporate talent show press conference on Friday, I expect him to implore as much self quarantining as possible. This will get worse before it gets better. I have to believe that people's trust in him is wavering, even in his base - which is my logical interpretation given how things have progressively gotten worse despite every action he's taken or statement he's made. He's got to do something drastic to slow the flow.
What? Have thy cake and eat it too.
You cant both advocate the kinds of social distancing and quarantine ur prescribing and then criticize its affect on the economy.
Lack of preparation on testing capacity. This virus wasnt named until 12 30 2019. A month later we shut down all travel with our largest trading partner.
This is the fastest approval of high through put testing in the history of the FDA. Should we have used the WHO approved tests instead of the CDC trying to build their own? Absolutely. No ones disputing that. That's why we rewrote the regulations. But there was not a magic box with "300 million coronavirus test kits" that the administration just lost track of. Just like theres not a magic button that says "dow @ 35k" for the fed to press.
Trump supporters elected him to be a competent leader to inject as much private sector efficiency into government bureaucracies as possible. We never expected him to be God.
(03-16-2020, 11:16 AM)Gabe Wrote: [ -> ] (03-16-2020, 11:05 AM)MalabarJag Wrote: [ -> ]Exactly! The 2.5% mortality rate is averaged over the population. It's much higher for OLD people.
I'm still going with the 0.5% number from the cruise ship analysis. That seems to be the most well-determined estimate. 0.5% is still bad (and it's 7.3% for those over 70) but not destroy-the-economy level bad.
The scariest thing for me in all of this: the 2-14 day incubation period before symptoms show (if they show at all). Young people are substantially less at risk than older - yet the communicability remains constant. Even at .5%, that's a scary potential for this country. I'm not jumping to .5% of the entire US population, but it's not out of the realm of possibility considering that people are still congregating like lemmings, even with office, school, sporting/general event cancellations.
Because of our woeful lack of testing capacity, I'm deducing that a substantial amount of people have it, despite not showing symptoms. I'm wondering what it will take for people to take social distancing seriously.
For me at this point it would take Amazon having their products stocked so I can continue to order online, and idiots in my community to STOP PANIC BUYING so when I do online shopping at my local grocery store I can actually, you know, buy stuff because it's actually in stock. Every store from Wal-Mart and Aldi (inexpensive) to Harris Teeter and Lowe's Foods (higher end) is ransacked of paper and cleaning products and food. For a small area we have an inordinate number of grocery stores and we're picking at the bones now.
Welp. they shut down the Bars in my State too so...……..