(04-28-2020, 10:54 AM)jj82284 Wrote: [ -> ] (04-28-2020, 07:30 AM)mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]Confirmed case fatality rate is only part of the story.
The other part is how contagious the thing is, how many people will get it.
Even with social distancing, in the United States, more people have already died of coronavirus than have died of the flu in any recent flu season.
One reason is that there is no vaccine for covid 19. even though we know flu vaccines were never perfect, they do help matters. But probably a bigger reason is that this Coronavirus gives a lot of asymptomatic carriers. We don't know who these carriers might be. Until we do some robust contact tracing like more authoritarian places like South Korea and Singapore, we just have to tell everybody to stay home as much as possible because they might be one of the asymptomatic carriers.
1.) We sent positive covid patients into nursing homes
2.) We dont have an effective standard of care/therapeutics
3.) They're cooking the books.
80k flu deaths to roughly 24k. It’s a damn miracle!! LOL
(04-28-2020, 09:59 AM)jj82284 Wrote: [ -> ]Upon further review,
The major conclusions and themes the doctor expresses are sound and sobering.
He makes one major statistical error. He takes the % of + diagnostic tests and extrapolates them. That's statistically errant. Those sample groups are screened to provide higher + results and the tests were random. He should have either a.) Established correlation for those #s to the random serological #s or just b) used the #s from the serological study.
I agree that there are problems with extrapolating their sample to the entire area. Had they done what you suggested, they likely would have arrived at a similar conclusion, but I certainly wish they would've gotten there with a better method.
(04-28-2020, 02:48 PM)jagfan0728 Wrote: [ -> ] (04-28-2020, 09:59 AM)jj82284 Wrote: [ -> ]Upon further review,
The major conclusions and themes the doctor expresses are sound and sobering.
He makes one major statistical error. He takes the % of + diagnostic tests and extrapolates them. That's statistically errant. Those sample groups are screened to provide higher + results and the tests were random. He should have either a.) Established correlation for those #s to the random serological #s or just b) used the #s from the serological study.
I agree that there are problems with extrapolating their sample to the entire area. Had they done what you suggested, they likely would have arrived at a similar conclusion, but I certainly wish they would've gotten there with a better method.
Exactly.
In CA serology is pointing to 2 to 4% they used 12% in Ny serology is pointing to 20% they used 39%.
They should have started with the baseline of the preliminary serology data.
Now from there u can speculate that maybe u suspect viral penetration is higher and more on the order of the ratio of the %+ on the diagnostic testing. U could then bring up the #s they came to as a hypothetical upperbpund. The difference between calis %+ vs NY is symptomatic of higher viral penetration, but this would have been bulletproof if GROUNDED in the serology #s
(04-28-2020, 09:28 AM)jj82284 Wrote: [ -> ]We should also be looking @ high dose vitamin c. It regulates the immune response with virtually no risk. It's only drawback, from a bureaucratic point of view, is that it's cheap.
...and now it will get you arrested:
https://wwjnewsradio.radio.com/articles/...with-fraud
At that time, officials said the investigation concerned alleged dubious treatments to help to beat the coronavirus, and claims that Mok was providing high-dose intravenous Vitamin C Therapy to all essential at-risk Michigan workers.
(04-28-2020, 03:41 PM)Byron LeftTown Wrote: [ -> ] (04-28-2020, 09:28 AM)jj82284 Wrote: [ -> ]We should also be looking @ high dose vitamin c. It regulates the immune response with virtually no risk. It's only drawback, from a bureaucratic point of view, is that it's cheap.
...and now it will get you arrested:
https://wwjnewsradio.radio.com/articles/...with-fraud
At that time, officials said the investigation concerned alleged dubious treatments to help to beat the coronavirus, and claims that Mok was providing high-dose intravenous Vitamin C Therapy to all essential at-risk Michigan workers.
Doesn't help if you were defrauding the Federal Government for three years prior to said dubious treatments.
(04-28-2020, 04:44 PM)Gabe Wrote: [ -> ] (04-28-2020, 03:41 PM)Byron LeftTown Wrote: [ -> ]...and now it will get you arrested:
https://wwjnewsradio.radio.com/articles/...with-fraud
At that time, officials said the investigation concerned alleged dubious treatments to help to beat the coronavirus, and claims that Mok was providing high-dose intravenous Vitamin C Therapy to all essential at-risk Michigan workers.
Doesn't help if you were defrauding the Federal Government for three years prior to said dubious treatments.
Just because you're paranoid doesnt mean they're not out to get u.
(04-28-2020, 12:29 AM)jagfan0728 Wrote: [ -> ]This is the full video of the two ER doctors. The original full video, which I personally watched, had over 5 million views and was just removed from youtube for "violating community guidelines". Here is another one with about 50k views, watch it while you can. This is apparently what tech giants don't want you to see.
Here is another copy of the video. Evidently youtube likes to censor information that they don't agree with.
Gabe, shouldn't you be huddled around the TOTAL U.S. DEATHS ticker waiting for the big event?
Sometime in the next 48 hours, total deaths will be MORE than Trump had hoped!
(04-29-2020, 11:14 AM)Byron LeftTown Wrote: [ -> ]Gabe, shouldn't you be huddled around the TOTAL U.S. DEATHS ticker waiting for the big event?
Sometime in the next 48 hours, total deaths will be MORE than Trump had hoped!
No huddling. Just me and all my liberal brethren hoping for more economic depression and deaths in an effort to harm Trump's re-election bid. If only a miracle would occur and it'd all go away.
(04-29-2020, 07:28 AM)jagibelieve Wrote: [ -> ] (04-28-2020, 12:29 AM)jagfan0728 Wrote: [ -> ]This is the full video of the two ER doctors. The original full video, which I personally watched, had over 5 million views and was just removed from youtube for "violating community guidelines". Here is another one with about 50k views, watch it while you can. This is apparently what tech giants don't want you to see.
Here is another copy of the video. Evidently youtube likes to censor information that they don't agree with.
I appreciate you reposting the video. Your repost was just taken down as well. Here is a link to the video that should not be at risk of being taken down.
https://www.kget.com/health/coronavirus/...ace-order/
It's unfortunate that youtube, facebook, and twitter are engaging in ever-increasing censorship. I never imagined having "thought police" would be welcomed in the United States of America. People should decide for themselves what to think and not be told by government or big tech companies what they should believe. I'm not saying what these two ER doctors shared is immune from criticism, but it certainly should be a part of the discussion. Censorship has never been about truth vs lies, it seems far more about what certain institutions want you to believe vs what they don't want you to believe.
(04-29-2020, 02:29 PM)jagfan0728 Wrote: [ -> ] (04-29-2020, 07:28 AM)jagibelieve Wrote: [ -> ]Here is another copy of the video. Evidently youtube likes to censor information that they don't agree with.
I appreciate you reposting the video. Your repost was just taken down as well. Here is a link to the video that should not be at risk of being taken down.
https://www.kget.com/health/coronavirus/...ace-order/
It's unfortunate that youtube, facebook, and twitter are engaging in ever-increasing censorship. I never imagined having "thought police" would be welcomed in the United States of America. People should decide for themselves what to think and not be told by government or big tech companies what they should believe. I'm not saying what these two ER doctors shared is immune from criticism, but it certainly should be a part of the discussion. Censorship has never been about truth vs lies, it seems far more about what certain institutions want you to believe vs what they don't want you to believe.
Sigh... I agree with you. It's information. I'm not going to say that these doctors are correct or not, but they make a case that makes sense to me. I think people can look at information and make decisions for themselves rather than only having the "official state sponsored information" available. I downloaded the video and am considering hosting it on my own for others to see. Censorship is about control and is a suppression of free speech. It's very telling that aside from the local television station that produced the original video, the only "major" news network to give these guys a voice is FOX.
On a side note. I think that we do need to re-open the economy, especially here in Florida. The Chinese Wuhan virus is here and is not going away. We can't "hide" from it (ie. quarantine at home) forever. Stores and businesses can operate with sensible precautions in place. We need to let people get back to work rather than "encourage" them to stay at home and wait for a check from the "gubment".
Can you imagine living in a world where your news sources were Brian Stelter, Wolf Blitzer, and Don Lemon?
(04-29-2020, 04:55 PM)Gabe Wrote: [ -> ] (04-29-2020, 04:16 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ]Can you imagine living in a world where your news sources were Brian Stelter, Wolf Blitzer, and Don Lemon?
Laura, we salute thee!
![[Image: GtDNwnQ.gif]](https://i.imgur.com/GtDNwnQ.gif)
More of a fan of Tucker. You might actually learn a thing or two if you give him a chance. We know you won't.
(04-29-2020, 05:05 PM)StroudCrowd1 Wrote: [ -> ] (04-29-2020, 04:55 PM)Gabe Wrote: [ -> ]Laura, we salute thee!
More of a fan of Tucker. You might actually learn a thing or two if you give him a chance. We know you won't.
Oooh...I love logical fallacies! Can I play?
(04-29-2020, 06:31 PM)B2hibry Wrote: [ -> ]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_mQml9h5ZY
Ironically, the statistical problem they have is relatively small. By that I mean, they plainly stated the assumption that they were making in their calculation. If you dont like the stats they use for overall disease prevalence, you can just plug in the serology numbers. When you do, their results are still on the same order of magnitude. For instance in CA they used the 12% fr the % + of diagnostic testing. If u use the upperbpund of the Stanford serology study (4.2%) then instead of .03 you get an infection mortality rate of .09 on the lower bound (2.2%) your looking at <.2. That's still in the same relative ballpark.
When we selected the lockdown social distancing option we were quoted a mortality rate between 4 to 7%. We were taking about projections of deaths in the millions. Both of those figures have been completely debunked and shown to be based on completely unreasonable assumptions. Is big tech censoring Chris Murphy? IHME? YouTube literally is using the WHO talking points as part of their defacto rules of conduct. Neil Ferguson is still being consulted for his thoughts on the second wave, and he was wrong about covid, swine flu, bird flu, and mad cow disease.
Guys. It’s gonna go. It’s gonna leave. It’s gonna be gone. It’s gonna be eradicated.
We good.