(05-13-2020, 07:03 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]It's not an easy choice, and I don't envy those who have to make these decisions.
How many people will die from reopening the economy?
How can the poorer people live without working?
What will our world be like if the economy contracts by 10 or 20 percent?
What will be the consequences of the mountain of personal and public debt we incur while parts of the economy are shut down?
If we reopen too soon, will there be a second wave that damages the economy even worse?
These are not easy questions. It seems to me that disaster lies in every direction, no matter what path we take.
I realize that a non-partisan, balanced statement like the above is not likely to draw much response from those of you who enjoy partisanship. So I'm not expecting anyone to respond to it. Carry on.
In reality, this is the biggest false choice in modern american history. What's the one question no one is asking? Personal Viral Mitigation vs. State mandated lockdown. By that I mean if you take away a top down edict from the governor does that mean that everyone in the state is going to just pretend the virus never existed?
I don't carry around Hand Sanitizer because I'm afraid I'll get arrested. I carry it around because I don't want to get sick and have to quarantine from my wife and business. I wash my hands more, stay away from old people, and stopped shaking hands. I didn't do that because I'm scared of getting taken to jail, i didn't do that because pope Fauci told me to do it. I do it because my personal value system leads me to protect myself within reason. Lifting an artificial and arbitrary state lockdown isn't going to change that behavior on my part and it certainly isn't going to change the personal protective behavior of anyone currently complying with the lockdowns.
Moreover, those changes-independent of state control- are actually the big ticket items in slowing the spread of the virus. That's why places like Sweden haven't turned to the smoldering ash everyone predicted. Shutting down the schools is a big ticket public policy item but with all the data coming out a.) we don't think that Children are serious vectors for this contagion and b.) that only reduces the total number of infections by about 2% while doing unimaginable damage to child performance and the economy with the added burden of childcare. Shutting down a local church will get a politicians name in the paper but in reality a Pastor and his congregation have flexibility to social distance in a sanctuary or go to drive through/outside services far greater than the capacity of Cost Co, Walmart, etc. You have an arbitrary list of "essential businesses" that can stay open created by groups of people who couldn't tell you how to make a pencil if their lives depended on it. That's not sound public policy, that's a dog a pony show.
Andrew Cuomo pointed out in his own words 84% of all hospitalizations in NY state came from people sheltering in Place or Nursing homes. That means that on its face, the lock down policy failed to achieve any of its objectives. When you add to that the fact that on 3/25/2020 he ORDERED Nursing homes to take Covid 19 patients, knowing the risk profile of this virus, you can make a sound argument that the lockdown strategy actually COST LIVES even in NYC and that's not even talking about the collateral damage of pushing positive pressure ventilation, that doesn't work, with Medicare payment schedules and the scores of patients who died, or ensuring that a Healthcare system that was NOT overrun by Covid 19 was SHUT DOWN to all other morbidities that account for a much greater percentage of the overal mortality in this country.
In short, this exercise should teach everyone paying any attention that the state CANNOT DO ANYTHING!!! As p_rushing pointed out, our response was directed by a man who a.) authorized and funded the gain of function research that led to the greatest health catastrophy in our collective lieftimes b.) whose initial containment strategy failed c.) whose initial confidence in the WHO proved calamatous d.) wrong on masks e.) contradicted himself on death rates f.) had us follow a myriad of fraudulent computer models, g.) advocated for the compulsory production of 100k ventilators that don't work for this disease. h.) has been consistently behind countries like Germany, Sweden, ISrale etc. on innovation and research regarding this contagion. That's the EXPERT!
If we had approached this as a free society and not depended entirely on the nanny state to lock us in our houses and wash our hands for us while singing us a luliby about a vaccine to an RNA virus in less than a year (Flu shots are what 50% effective after 2000 years? no vaccine to Sars Cov-1) we would be much further along to herd immunity, we would have actual death numbers not inflated death numbers to get medicare funding. We would know which treatments work and which don't, we wouldn't be treated to 3 drug monte based on which company donated money to the NIH and the CDC. We would be a lot closer to Herd immunity (now estimated to only be around 40% infection-recovery rate because children aren't signifigant disease vectors.) We have prolonged this crisis and done damage to this economy some are estimating will take 10 years to recover from. The deaths in 3rd world countries because of the aid the west won't be able to give them in the wake of this fiasco will greatly outweigh the people who pass away from this virus-and even that number is skewed because again all the geniuses and doom sayers
PUT COV POSITIVE PATIENTS IN NURSING HOMES!!!!!!! Not to mention the fact that we allocated healthcare resources to make sure than there were enough ventilators that don't work to service patients that were never hospitalized that we reduced chemotherapy by 50%, brain surgeries are down, heart surgeries, cancer screenings etc. etc. etc.
This is the greatest evidentiary debacle in the history of mankind. There were some people who called it at the beginning. There should be no one who denies it in hindsight.
(05-13-2020, 09:05 AM)lastonealive Wrote: [ -> ]Wish you guys would occasionally argue a point?
Like when I said the pandemic was going the way of Italy and you called me a liar...
Oh well good luck 2nd time lucky?
deaths per million
U.S 150
Sweden 200
Spain/Italy 400
anything else you would like to be wrong about today?
(05-13-2020, 09:12 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ] (05-13-2020, 09:05 AM)lastonealive Wrote: [ -> ]Wish you guys would occasionally argue a point?
Like when I said the pandemic was going the way of Italy and you called me a liar...
Oh well good luck 2nd time lucky?
It wasn't going the way of Italy, you were wrong.
+1