Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

(03-21-2020, 08:00 PM)Jags Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-21-2020, 07:37 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]800 out of 60 million...

.0013%.  Freak out.  Or not.  Idk care anymore.  I’m bired off my [BLEEP].  Was supposed to be at Disney this week.

Me too. Panic Fatigue setting in.

(03-21-2020, 08:00 PM)Jags Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-21-2020, 07:37 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]800 out of 60 million...

.0013%.  Freak out.  Or not.  Idk care anymore.  I’m bired off my [BLEEP].  Was supposed to be at Disney this week.

That was one day though.

0.0013 x 365 = 0.5%. one person in every 200.

(03-21-2020, 03:23 PM)JackCity Wrote: [ -> ]800 people died in Italy in the past 24 hours. This isn't overblown, its just only starting off in America

We are not italy

(03-21-2020, 08:20 PM)I’m mikesez Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-21-2020, 08:00 PM)Jags Wrote: [ -> ].0013%.  Freak out.  Or not.  Idk care anymore.  I’m bired off my [BLEEP].  Was supposed to be at Disney this week.

That was one day though.

0.0013 x 365 = 0.5%. one person in every 200.

.5%.  Now it’s really time to freak out!!!

---

(03-21-2020, 08:14 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-21-2020, 08:00 PM)Jags Wrote: [ -> ].0013%.  Freak out.  Or not.  Idk care anymore.  I’m bired off my [BLEEP].  Was supposed to be at Disney this week.

Me too. Panic Fatigue setting in.

Yeah, I can only play Xbox so much and deal with the wife for so long.  I didn’t realize the vows said to love them after being so close for so long.  I guess that’s why they add the “for better or worse” part.  Should’ve read the fine print.

(03-21-2020, 03:57 PM)HURRICANE!!! Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-21-2020, 02:15 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]Latest US totals at the Johns-Hopkins site are:
22,177 confirmed cases
278 deaths
147 recoveries

(FL - 659 confirmed cases - that's an increase of 106 cases since this morning's update)

Desantis' refusal to close the beaches and let spring break party on is going to result in Florida being the next NYC ---- luckily, I'm driving up to the suburbs of Pittsburgh for a few weeks to help take care of my aging mom during our work from home option.

STAY SAFE EVERYONE !!

Desantis built a subway on the beach?

Our economy is like a large ship @ see. We were never on the heading to turn out s billion r95 masks annually. It takes time to make that turn and spin out millions of units.

Also, everyone is comparing our testing regime to that of sk and italy. When did china share the sequence of the virus with them vs. Us. I heard today that South Korea might have gotten the sequence in early january while they were still selling propaganda to the rest of the world.

As for multiplying infection rates or death rates by 365, that's premature.

1.) Climate is variable and about to swing in our favor.
2.) The curve of human innovation is closer to infinity than any infectious agent
3.) Were still in the very early stages of this pathogen. Generally viruses especially novel strains like SARS COV2 naturally burn themselves out. The models assume that susceptibility to the virus Is infinite within the population to fuel exponential infection until it reaches the entire population. That's never really happened, especially in the short term (12 month period). For instance, spanish flu capped out. @ 30% of the population. Swine flu was essentially on a free trajectory and capped out around 20% in the US. Now, those numbers would still be problematic but
4.) Case fatality and total mortality are two different things. Like everyone I'm keeping up, in some capacity, with the official data. But the official data is very misleading. It measures confirmed cases vs. Hospitalization or death. We then take those numbers to say that this virus is 35 times more deadly than say he seasonal flu. The problem with that equation is that you are using total mortality for the glue and the confirmed case rate of corona. The difference being that those who take the corona test are already symptomatic enough to pass cdc pre-screening and generally to seek treatment. (Jagibelieve doesnt count yet.) The confirmed case rate for the flu (people sick enough to take the test & be diagnosed as precursor to treatment) is actually higher than corona. As testing resources become more plentiful and we get a better look at the asymptomatic/mildly symptomatic infected population the hospitalization rates and death rates begin to fall. We feared china was near 5 or 6% now were looking at 1.4 germany was somewhere near .27 us is hovering somewhere close to 1% etc. We originally thought that 19% of cases would be considered critical, now it's down between 5 to 6%.

(03-21-2020, 08:28 PM)jj82284 Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-21-2020, 03:23 PM)JackCity Wrote: [ -> ]800 people died in Italy in the past 24 hours. This isn't overblown, its just only starting off in America

We are not italy

Regions of America are on their way to it.

Plant a garden. You might thank yourself in 3 months.

(03-21-2020, 08:57 PM)Byron LeftTown Wrote: [ -> ]Plant a garden.  You might thank yourself in 3 months.

3 months or 90 days.  Whichever comes first.

It's almost like we have a lot of people here.

(03-21-2020, 08:56 PM)JackCity Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-21-2020, 08:28 PM)jj82284 Wrote: [ -> ]We are not italy

Regions of America are on their way to it.

Culturally and demographically we are a lot different.  A lot more intimate close contact/hugging etc.  They are also a lot older on average.  And in Italy they are more culturally inclined to visit elderly matriarchs/patriarchs of the family.  Not to mention that before this happened their healthcare system was already over burdened and @ the point of  rationing elective/non essential services. 

Every death s an unmitigated tragedy. But in the blood soaked calculus of assessing different iterations of a pandemic those factors have an influence on body count.

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#g...untry-view

Good information on this site. Apparently when you get the doubling of death rate longer than 3 days, you've gotten passed the runaway period in the spread.

(03-21-2020, 09:44 PM)Last42min Wrote: [ -> ]It's almost like we have a lot of people here.

We have about five times as many people as Italy.
I hope we never have five times as many cases, but it's definitely possible. Let's continue to eliminate unnecessary social contact until new cases slow to a trickle, or until there is a super-effective, easily scaled treatment.

(03-21-2020, 09:46 PM)jj82284 Wrote: [ -> ]

(03-21-2020, 08:56 PM)JackCity Wrote: [ -> ]Regions of America are on their way to it.

Culturally and demographically we are a lot different.  A lot more intimate close contact/hugging etc.  They are also a lot older on average.  And in Italy they are more culturally inclined to visit elderly matriarchs/patriarchs of the family.  Not to mention that before this happened their healthcare system was already over burdened and @ the point of  rationing elective/non essential services. 

Every death s an unmitigated tragedy. But in the blood soaked calculus of assessing different iterations of a pandemic those factors have an influence on body count.

Im aware. Was talked about many pages back. 

The point is regions of the US are going to be incredibly bad despite that

(03-21-2020, 02:15 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]Latest US totals at the Johns-Hopkins site are:
22,177 confirmed cases
278 deaths
147 recoveries

(FL - 659 confirmed cases - that's an increase of 106 cases since this morning's update)

FL now at 763. 

That's 210 new cases in FL in less than 24 hours.  I'm not freaking out at all.  If I lived in Washington State, SoCal, or NYC I'd be on edge though. 

If I worked in a hospital I'd be deciding whether I'm healthy enough to beat it, because healthcare workers will be testing positive in droves very soon.

We shutdown the economy, caused mass amounts of people to lose jobs, and are looking to give the bloated government even more power over a glorified cold virus.

Lord have mercy

Here is a really good article:  

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opini...e=Homepage

Quote:  
============================
We routinely differentiate between two kinds of military action: the inevitable carnage and collateral damage of diffuse hostilities, and the precision of a “surgical strike,” methodically targeted to the sources of our particular peril. The latter, when executed well, minimizes resources and unintended consequences alike.

As we battle the coronavirus pandemic, and heads of state declare that we are “at war” with this contagion, the same dichotomy applies. This can be open war, with all the fallout that portends, or it could be something more surgical. The United States and much of the world so far have gone in for the former. I write now with a sense of urgency to make sure we consider the surgical approach, while there is still time.

I am deeply concerned that the social, economic and public health consequences of this near total meltdown of normal life — schools and businesses closed, gatherings banned — will be long lasting and calamitous, possibly graver than the direct toll of the virus itself. The stock market will bounce back in time, but many businesses never will. The unemployment, impoverishment and despair likely to result will be public health scourges of the first order.

Worse, I fear our efforts will do little to contain the virus, because we have a resource-constrained, fragmented, perennially underfunded public health system. Distributing such limited resources so widely, so shallowly and so haphazardly is a formula for failure.
=========================
End Quote

The ironic thing is, with all the young people ignoring the entreaties to practice social distancing, while the older population hunkers down and avoids other people, we may be accomplishing what the author suggested: building the herd immunity we need to get past this.

So it might be that the best thing would be for some of you younger guys and gals to go out, get sick, and get well, while we isolate the old folks and people with underlying conditions.

(03-22-2020, 07:09 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: [ -> ]Here is a really good article:  

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opini...e=Homepage

Quote:  
============================
We routinely differentiate between two kinds of military action: the inevitable carnage and collateral damage of diffuse hostilities, and the precision of a “surgical strike,” methodically targeted to the sources of our particular peril. The latter, when executed well, minimizes resources and unintended consequences alike.

As we battle the coronavirus pandemic, and heads of state declare that we are “at war” with this contagion, the same dichotomy applies. This can be open war, with all the fallout that portends, or it could be something more surgical. The United States and much of the world so far have gone in for the former. I write now with a sense of urgency to make sure we consider the surgical approach, while there is still time.

I am deeply concerned that the social, economic and public health consequences of this near total meltdown of normal life — schools and businesses closed, gatherings banned — will be long lasting and calamitous, possibly graver than the direct toll of the virus itself. The stock market will bounce back in time, but many businesses never will. The unemployment, impoverishment and despair likely to result will be public health scourges of the first order.

Worse, I fear our efforts will do little to contain the virus, because we have a resource-constrained, fragmented, perennially underfunded public health system. Distributing such limited resources so widely, so shallowly and so haphazardly is a formula for failure.
=========================
End Quote

The ironic thing is, with all the young people ignoring the entreaties to practice social distancing, while the older population hunkers down and avoids other people, we may be accomplishing what the author suggested: building the herd immunity we need to get past this.

So it might be that the best thing would be for some of you younger guys and gals to go out, get sick, and get well, while we isolate the old folks and people with underlying conditions.

Except there are plenty of young people being hospitalized with no underlying conditions

300,000 Chinese nationals working in the Italian garment industry. Direct flights between Wuhan and Italy. Recipe for disaster.