Jacksonville Jaguars Fan Forums

(01-21-2024, 10:48 PM)MojoKing Wrote: [ -> ]Mahomes is annoyingly amazing , like the dude has made the NFL him vs everyone else.

6 straight AFC title appearences to open his career.

He's been in the AFC title game every single year since we went in 2017.

That's insane. Tom Brady played in 13 in 20+ years.

(01-21-2024, 10:02 PM)SuperJville Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-21-2024, 09:15 PM)Eric1 Wrote: [ -> ]That was only 40 yards, but the fact that the one that comes to mind was from all the way back in week 7 proves his point.

I agree nothing has come easy for us this year.

But I’m not sure how many QBs are getting more than 1-2 5 yard passes that go for 60+ yard touchdowns..

Again, not taking anything away from him as he’s clearly a talent, but I think Stroud has had a few this year.

If you watch game pass regularly you usually see 2/3 a weekend which is never us.

(01-21-2024, 09:13 PM)SuperJville Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-21-2024, 09:04 PM)SuperJville Wrote: [ -> ]Christian Kirk against the Saints

And did he have some INTs caused by WR mistakes? Sure. But so do all QBs. 
We are acutely aware of Trevor’s but do we know for SURE that other QBs didn’t have similar problems?  I mean just look at today - Baker Mayfield threw a pick in the first quarter which bounced off the WRs hands too. It happens. Trevor isn’t the only one.

Trevor also had some very nice catches that receivers made for him (Zay Jones TD against colts comes to mind). I think over the course of 17 games he probably had an average amount of good plays and bad plays from his receivers compared to the league average. He had a subpar offensive line. 

But his body of work tells me he’s a talented qb that makes plenty of mistakes but has a lot of room to get better. 
He hasn’t arrived - he needs to stay healthy next year play well (throw 25+ TDs and minimize turnovers) and lead us to the playoffs.  Then we give him a massive extension.

But hypothetically (god forbid) he starts
The year slow, maybe gets injured and misses 4-6 weeks - we miss the playoffs, and his stats look similar to this year… would you feel confident that he is without a shadow of a doubt THE guy? Maybe, maybe not.

Is he much better than Jameis Winston? Baker Mayfield? Or Jared Goff?  Those guys are examples of former #1 picks ending up on other somewhere else after the honeymoon phase is over.  Year 4 he is going to be a veteran, he’s got 50 starts under his belt already. What he gives us in year 4 is probably a good representation of who he is and what he will give us going forward. 

I hope it’s a great year, playoffs, and a run. 

If it’s another 9-8, 8-9 season where we miss playoffs and he’s a turnover machine - we may have to think about what else we can do.

Even then I’d still give him a 5th year option but I’m not just throwing too qb money at someone like that - especially when you see guys like Goff and Mayfield.  Just my 2c.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CHIBears/commen...me_throws/

Sorry, again another stat (can you tell I’m a quant?) very interesting one showing turnover throws vs big time throws.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CHIBears/commen...me_throws/

Trevor narrowly showing in the ‘risk taker’ category here, but I believe a 0.2% reduction in turnover worthy throws puts him in the ‘good category’

I know stats aren’t everything, but I believe with these + the eye test it’s just showing this year, we need to support this guy and give him the proper opportunity to succeed, there is enough there and this is just on the back of an injury laden season. Make the Oline better and watch him go off this year.

(Link is Reddit but via PFF)

My view is this, and this thread backs it up, we do not know conclusively what we have in TLaw right now and imo that is the worst place you can be with a QB in the NFL.

Obviously Trevor is not where we hoped he would be, though he has shown rest flashes, but also bad flashes. However there is enough excuses to justify it, these being, poor Oline, mass amount of injuries (due to the previous point), receiver drops (especially turning into interceptions which we led the league in).

Now as we’re coming to the end of the Rookie deal that puts us in a very precarious position, do we pay Trevor (.likely to be around 35-40m per year) or do we have to replace him? Bearing in mind we’re not going to be drafting high enough so we’ll have to part with some picks (sure we could get some back)

So this off season, we heavily support Trevor via free agency and the draft to improve the Oline and if we can WR support with the first 3/4 rounds. (I would like a big DT but we’ll see)

I think we will see an improvement in the D by keeping them off the field less time so keeping fresh, Walker naturally improving, and hopefully seeing an improve offense making the opposing offense more one dimentional having to chase games.

IMO, you could argue that a 2nd,3rd,4th round pick could save us potentially around 40m a year or multiple first round draft picks, I don’t see any other way of getting more value from those picks.

(01-21-2024, 10:54 PM)Newton Wrote: [ -> ]Yeah in the playoffs he is unstoppable

Amazing what happens when his WRs catch. They were a couple drops away from being the #1 seed and some of the national media were wondering if they were done. Come on now.

All of these numbers are top 5 in the NFL.
https://twitter.com/DanDGriffis/status/1...4580044192

Give him more time to throw and less drops and he'll go crazy.

Priority one...build an offensive line. No don't tell me we have a lot of "Talent" . We have the tackle area covered, I'll buy that. Just do not tell me the center and guards are here. Many of our interior guys have been here for more than a few years. They have never in that period been anything but below average in the middle. The answer is not people we currently have on the roster. (I'll make exceptions for Ezra and Tugboat) Please fix the middle of the line before we have to bury our QB...

(01-23-2024, 09:19 PM)Eric1 Wrote: [ -> ]All of these numbers are top 5 in the NFL.
https://twitter.com/DanDGriffis/status/1...4580044192

When we have a line that allows double the number of under center play action passes, TL is going to explode.

We were 13.3 yards per attempt from under center in 2023 with a bad line and a QB injured for 11 weeks.
What happens if he's healthy all year and gets 2.5 seconds to drop back and make 2-3 reads after faking to ETN? 
Pffft - it'll be sick.

(01-23-2024, 11:27 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-23-2024, 09:19 PM)Eric1 Wrote: [ -> ]All of these numbers are top 5 in the NFL.
https://twitter.com/DanDGriffis/status/1...4580044192

When we have a line that allows double the number of under center play action passes, TL is going to explode.

We were 13.3 yards per attempt from under center in 2023 with a bad line and a QB injured for 11 weeks.
What happens if he's healthy all year and gets 2.5 seconds to drop back and make 2-3 reads after faking to ETN? 
Pffft - it'll be sick.

And ETN is actually a threat to run the ball effectively. Man, that would be so great.

(01-22-2024, 02:27 AM)Dockerill91 Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-21-2024, 09:13 PM)SuperJville Wrote: [ -> ]And did he have some INTs caused by WR mistakes? Sure. But so do all QBs. 
We are acutely aware of Trevor’s but do we know for SURE that other QBs didn’t have similar problems?  I mean just look at today - Baker Mayfield threw a pick in the first quarter which bounced off the WRs hands too. It happens. Trevor isn’t the only one.

Trevor also had some very nice catches that receivers made for him (Zay Jones TD against colts comes to mind). I think over the course of 17 games he probably had an average amount of good plays and bad plays from his receivers compared to the league average. He had a subpar offensive line. 

But his body of work tells me he’s a talented qb that makes plenty of mistakes but has a lot of room to get better. 
He hasn’t arrived - he needs to stay healthy next year play well (throw 25+ TDs and minimize turnovers) and lead us to the playoffs.  Then we give him a massive extension.

But hypothetically (god forbid) he starts
The year slow, maybe gets injured and misses 4-6 weeks - we miss the playoffs, and his stats look similar to this year… would you feel confident that he is without a shadow of a doubt THE guy? Maybe, maybe not.

Is he much better than Jameis Winston? Baker Mayfield? Or Jared Goff?  Those guys are examples of former #1 picks ending up on other somewhere else after the honeymoon phase is over.  Year 4 he is going to be a veteran, he’s got 50 starts under his belt already. What he gives us in year 4 is probably a good representation of who he is and what he will give us going forward. 

I hope it’s a great year, playoffs, and a run. 

If it’s another 9-8, 8-9 season where we miss playoffs and he’s a turnover machine - we may have to think about what else we can do.

Even then I’d still give him a 5th year option but I’m not just throwing too qb money at someone like that - especially when you see guys like Goff and Mayfield.  Just my 2c.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CHIBears/commen...me_throws/

Sorry, again another stat (can you tell I’m a quant?) very interesting one showing turnover throws vs big time throws.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CHIBears/commen...me_throws/

Trevor narrowly showing in the ‘risk taker’ category here, but I believe a 0.2% reduction in turnover worthy throws puts him in the ‘good category’

I know stats aren’t everything, but I believe with these + the eye test it’s just showing this year, we need to support this guy and give him the proper opportunity to succeed, there is enough there and this is just on the back of an injury laden season. Make the Oline better and watch him go off this year.

(Link is Reddit but via PFF)

My view is this, and this thread backs it up, we do not know conclusively what we have in TLaw right now and imo that is the worst place you can be with a QB in the NFL.

Obviously Trevor is not where we hoped he would be, though he has shown rest flashes, but also bad flashes. However there is enough excuses to justify it, these being, poor Oline, mass amount of injuries (due to the previous point), receiver drops (especially turning into interceptions which we led the league in).

Now as we’re coming to the end of the Rookie deal that puts us in a very precarious position, do we pay Trevor (.likely to be around 35-40m per year) or do we have to replace him? Bearing in mind we’re not going to be drafting high enough so we’ll have to part with some picks (sure we could get some back)

So this off season, we heavily support Trevor via free agency and the draft to improve the Oline and if we can WR support with the first 3/4 rounds. (I would like a big DT but we’ll see)

I think we will see an improvement in the D by keeping them off the field less time so keeping fresh,  Walker naturally improving, and hopefully seeing an improve offense making the opposing offense more one dimentional having to chase games.

IMO, you could argue that a 2nd,3rd,4th round pick could save us potentially around 40m a year or multiple first round draft picks, I don’t see any other way of getting more value from those picks.

After years of watching the Boat and Gabby you can't seriously mean this. Most of us already know conclusively what we have with Lawrence, a young, gifted, franchise QB. He's taken our trash and turned it into a division title and a team that will consistently be in the playoff hunt as they are right now. The team has to fix the glaring strength problem; if they do that then this team will be a force for a decade to come.

(01-24-2024, 09:00 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-22-2024, 02:27 AM)Dockerill91 Wrote: [ -> ]https://www.reddit.com/r/CHIBears/commen...me_throws/

Sorry, again another stat (can you tell I’m a quant?) very interesting one showing turnover throws vs big time throws.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CHIBears/commen...me_throws/

Trevor narrowly showing in the ‘risk taker’ category here, but I believe a 0.2% reduction in turnover worthy throws puts him in the ‘good category’

I know stats aren’t everything, but I believe with these + the eye test it’s just showing this year, we need to support this guy and give him the proper opportunity to succeed, there is enough there and this is just on the back of an injury laden season. Make the Oline better and watch him go off this year.

(Link is Reddit but via PFF)

My view is this, and this thread backs it up, we do not know conclusively what we have in TLaw right now and imo that is the worst place you can be with a QB in the NFL.

Obviously Trevor is not where we hoped he would be, though he has shown rest flashes, but also bad flashes. However there is enough excuses to justify it, these being, poor Oline, mass amount of injuries (due to the previous point), receiver drops (especially turning into interceptions which we led the league in).

Now as we’re coming to the end of the Rookie deal that puts us in a very precarious position, do we pay Trevor (.likely to be around 35-40m per year) or do we have to replace him? Bearing in mind we’re not going to be drafting high enough so we’ll have to part with some picks (sure we could get some back)

So this off season, we heavily support Trevor via free agency and the draft to improve the Oline and if we can WR support with the first 3/4 rounds. (I would like a big DT but we’ll see)

I think we will see an improvement in the D by keeping them off the field less time so keeping fresh,  Walker naturally improving, and hopefully seeing an improve offense making the opposing offense more one dimentional having to chase games.

IMO, you could argue that a 2nd,3rd,4th round pick could save us potentially around 40m a year or multiple first round draft picks, I don’t see any other way of getting more value from those picks.

After years of watching the Boat and Gabby you can't seriously mean this. Most of us already know conclusively what we have with Lawrence, a young, gifted, franchise QB. He's taken our trash and turned it into a division title and a team that will consistently be in the playoff hunt as they are right now. The team has to fix the glaring strength problem; if they do that then this team will be a force for a decade to come.

Aaaaaaand close thread.

I’ll just add one more tid bit.

Trevor-24
Burrow-27
Levis-24
Herbert-25
Jayden Daniels- 23
Michael Penix- 23

I think sometimes we forget just how young he actually is in this league.

(01-25-2024, 08:40 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]https://twitter.com/DanDGriffis/status/1...53650?s=20

Makes sense to me. I remember Bo Jackson telling Dye he would play unless he had a leg injury. Because his legs were his protection.  He sat out the Florida game after taking a violent hit to between the knee and thigh pad.that year and the Tigers lost. He later played with broken ribs against I believe it was Georgia.  So, TL's legs are his defense and base he needs to throw. I can understand the drop off. He certainly wasn't the same at the end of the year.

Hope that Trevor will be healthy and ready for 2024 coming up. Along with the rest of the team.

(01-25-2024, 08:40 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: [ -> ]https://twitter.com/DanDGriffis/status/1...53650?s=20

Makes sense. Burrow was awful at the beginning of the season playing on a bad calf.

(01-24-2024, 09:00 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-22-2024, 02:27 AM)Dockerill91 Wrote: [ -> ]https://www.reddit.com/r/CHIBears/commen...me_throws/

Sorry, again another stat (can you tell I’m a quant?) very interesting one showing turnover throws vs big time throws.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CHIBears/commen...me_throws/

Trevor narrowly showing in the ‘risk taker’ category here, but I believe a 0.2% reduction in turnover worthy throws puts him in the ‘good category’

I know stats aren’t everything, but I believe with these + the eye test it’s just showing this year, we need to support this guy and give him the proper opportunity to succeed, there is enough there and this is just on the back of an injury laden season. Make the Oline better and watch him go off this year.

(Link is Reddit but via PFF)

My view is this, and this thread backs it up, we do not know conclusively what we have in TLaw right now and imo that is the worst place you can be with a QB in the NFL.

Obviously Trevor is not where we hoped he would be, though he has shown rest flashes, but also bad flashes. However there is enough excuses to justify it, these being, poor Oline, mass amount of injuries (due to the previous point), receiver drops (especially turning into interceptions which we led the league in).

Now as we’re coming to the end of the Rookie deal that puts us in a very precarious position, do we pay Trevor (.likely to be around 35-40m per year) or do we have to replace him? Bearing in mind we’re not going to be drafting high enough so we’ll have to part with some picks (sure we could get some back)

So this off season, we heavily support Trevor via free agency and the draft to improve the Oline and if we can WR support with the first 3/4 rounds. (I would like a big DT but we’ll see)

I think we will see an improvement in the D by keeping them off the field less time so keeping fresh,  Walker naturally improving, and hopefully seeing an improve offense making the opposing offense more one dimentional having to chase games.

IMO, you could argue that a 2nd,3rd,4th round pick could save us potentially around 40m a year or multiple first round draft picks, I don’t see any other way of getting more value from those picks.

After years of watching the Boat and Gabby you can't seriously mean this. Most of us already know conclusively what we have with Lawrence, a young, gifted, franchise QB. He's taken our trash and turned it into a division title and a team that will consistently be in the playoff hunt as they are right now. The team has to fix the glaring strength problem; if they do that then this team will be a force for a decade to come.

Hey, I believe he’s the guy. My point was that the board is split on it and some in the front office might be contract wise. 

If it were me my first 3 picks would be 2 guards and a centre.

(01-22-2024, 02:27 AM)Dockerill91 Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-21-2024, 09:13 PM)SuperJville Wrote: [ -> ]And did he have some INTs caused by WR mistakes? Sure. But so do all QBs. 
We are acutely aware of Trevor’s but do we know for SURE that other QBs didn’t have similar problems?  I mean just look at today - Baker Mayfield threw a pick in the first quarter which bounced off the WRs hands too. It happens. Trevor isn’t the only one.

Trevor also had some very nice catches that receivers made for him (Zay Jones TD against colts comes to mind). I think over the course of 17 games he probably had an average amount of good plays and bad plays from his receivers compared to the league average. He had a subpar offensive line. 

But his body of work tells me he’s a talented qb that makes plenty of mistakes but has a lot of room to get better. 
He hasn’t arrived - he needs to stay healthy next year play well (throw 25+ TDs and minimize turnovers) and lead us to the playoffs.  Then we give him a massive extension.

But hypothetically (god forbid) he starts
The year slow, maybe gets injured and misses 4-6 weeks - we miss the playoffs, and his stats look similar to this year… would you feel confident that he is without a shadow of a doubt THE guy? Maybe, maybe not.

Is he much better than Jameis Winston? Baker Mayfield? Or Jared Goff?  Those guys are examples of former #1 picks ending up on other somewhere else after the honeymoon phase is over.  Year 4 he is going to be a veteran, he’s got 50 starts under his belt already. What he gives us in year 4 is probably a good representation of who he is and what he will give us going forward. 

I hope it’s a great year, playoffs, and a run. 

If it’s another 9-8, 8-9 season where we miss playoffs and he’s a turnover machine - we may have to think about what else we can do.

Even then I’d still give him a 5th year option but I’m not just throwing too qb money at someone like that - especially when you see guys like Goff and Mayfield.  Just my 2c.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CHIBears/commen...me_throws/

Sorry, again another stat (can you tell I’m a quant?) very interesting one showing turnover throws vs big time throws.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CHIBears/commen...me_throws/

Trevor narrowly showing in the ‘risk taker’ category here, but I believe a 0.2% reduction in turnover worthy throws puts him in the ‘good category’

I know stats aren’t everything, but I believe with these + the eye test it’s just showing this year, we need to support this guy and give him the proper opportunity to succeed, there is enough there and this is just on the back of an injury laden season. Make the Oline better and watch him go off this year.

(Link is Reddit but via PFF)

My view is this, and this thread backs it up, we do not know conclusively what we have in TLaw right now and imo that is the worst place you can be with a QB in the NFL.

Obviously Trevor is not where we hoped he would be, though he has shown rest flashes, but also bad flashes. However there is enough excuses to justify it, these being, poor Oline, mass amount of injuries (due to the previous point), receiver drops (especially turning into interceptions which we led the league in).

Now as we’re coming to the end of the Rookie deal that puts us in a very precarious position, do we pay Trevor (.likely to be around 35-40m per year) or do we have to replace him? Bearing in mind we’re not going to be drafting high enough so we’ll have to part with some picks (sure we could get some back)

So this off season, we heavily support Trevor via free agency and the draft to improve the Oline and if we can WR support with the first 3/4 rounds. (I would like a big DT but we’ll see)

I think we will see an improvement in the D by keeping them off the field less time so keeping fresh,  Walker naturally improving, and hopefully seeing an improve offense making the opposing offense more one dimentional having to chase games.

IMO, you could argue that a 2nd,3rd,4th round pick could save us potentially around 40m a year or multiple first round draft picks, I don’t see any other way of getting more value from those picks.

Great posts SuperJville and Dockerill91, this is exactly how I think the Jags should handle Trevor Lawrence prior to giving him an extension.  This is a bit repetitive, but I think some of the posts that state something similar to "IF he had a better OLine, IF his receivers wouldn't drop the ball, IF his Offensive Coordinator would call better plays, IF he wasn't injured, etc. he would be a top level QB.", are supporting a performance that they have yet to actually see so far.  Now I'm NOT saying that those IFs aren't true, but those supporting a new contract this offseason without actually seeing that performance, are taking a large gamble with the salary cap.

I think at a top level, teams speculate with the NFL draft, teams pay for what they've seen and how they'd fit the team with FAs, and the team better know for sure before giving the largest contract extension they've ever paid.

(01-29-2024, 01:52 PM)cland Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-22-2024, 02:27 AM)Dockerill91 Wrote: [ -> ]https://www.reddit.com/r/CHIBears/commen...me_throws/

Sorry, again another stat (can you tell I’m a quant?) very interesting one showing turnover throws vs big time throws.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CHIBears/commen...me_throws/

Trevor narrowly showing in the ‘risk taker’ category here, but I believe a 0.2% reduction in turnover worthy throws puts him in the ‘good category’

I know stats aren’t everything, but I believe with these + the eye test it’s just showing this year, we need to support this guy and give him the proper opportunity to succeed, there is enough there and this is just on the back of an injury laden season. Make the Oline better and watch him go off this year.

(Link is Reddit but via PFF)

My view is this, and this thread backs it up, we do not know conclusively what we have in TLaw right now and imo that is the worst place you can be with a QB in the NFL.

Obviously Trevor is not where we hoped he would be, though he has shown rest flashes, but also bad flashes. However there is enough excuses to justify it, these being, poor Oline, mass amount of injuries (due to the previous point), receiver drops (especially turning into interceptions which we led the league in).

Now as we’re coming to the end of the Rookie deal that puts us in a very precarious position, do we pay Trevor (.likely to be around 35-40m per year) or do we have to replace him? Bearing in mind we’re not going to be drafting high enough so we’ll have to part with some picks (sure we could get some back)

So this off season, we heavily support Trevor via free agency and the draft to improve the Oline and if we can WR support with the first 3/4 rounds. (I would like a big DT but we’ll see)

I think we will see an improvement in the D by keeping them off the field less time so keeping fresh,  Walker naturally improving, and hopefully seeing an improve offense making the opposing offense more one dimentional having to chase games.

IMO, you could argue that a 2nd,3rd,4th round pick could save us potentially around 40m a year or multiple first round draft picks, I don’t see any other way of getting more value from those picks.

Great posts SuperJville and Dockerill91, this is exactly how I think the Jags should handle Trevor Lawrence prior to giving him an extension.  This is a bit repetitive, but I think some of the posts that state something similar to "IF he had a better OLine, IF his receivers wouldn't drop the ball, IF his Offensive Coordinator would call better plays, IF he wasn't injured, etc. he would be a top level QB.", are supporting a performance that they have yet to actually see so far.  Now I'm NOT saying that those IFs aren't true, but those supporting a new contract this offseason without actually seeing that performance, are taking a large gamble with the salary cap.

I think at a top level, teams speculate with the NFL draft, teams pay for what they've seen and how they'd fit the team with FAs, and the team better know for sure before giving the largest contract extension they've ever paid.

Logical take, rare on this board. I have no issue hiwever extending him this year provided the contract reflects his production and no assumptions of what he might be.

(01-30-2024, 04:05 AM)ChrisJagBoy Wrote: [ -> ]

(01-29-2024, 01:52 PM)cland Wrote: [ -> ]Great posts SuperJville and Dockerill91, this is exactly how I think the Jags should handle Trevor Lawrence prior to giving him an extension.  This is a bit repetitive, but I think some of the posts that state something similar to "IF he had a better OLine, IF his receivers wouldn't drop the ball, IF his Offensive Coordinator would call better plays, IF he wasn't injured, etc. he would be a top level QB.", are supporting a performance that they have yet to actually see so far.  Now I'm NOT saying that those IFs aren't true, but those supporting a new contract this offseason without actually seeing that performance, are taking a large gamble with the salary cap.

I think at a top level, teams speculate with the NFL draft, teams pay for what they've seen and how they'd fit the team with FAs, and the team better know for sure before giving the largest contract extension they've ever paid.

Logical take, rare on this board. I have no issue hiwever extending him this year provided the contract reflects his production and no assumptions of what he might be.

Another way I see it. Trevor is either going to become one of the highest paid players in nfl history when he gets his contract with us - or we’re not even going to resign him.

It’s rare to find something in between for a #1 pick that is “generational”… he’s either that or he’s not very good. Trevor and his agent knows this too. That’s why you either see a Jamie’s Winston situation or a Kyler Murray situation. One was (correctly) identified as not the franchise qb type and was let go.  The other got a premature contract extension as if he arrived and that was a mistake too. 

Hopefully Trevor has his by far best year in year 4. If he starts the year off very strong and we’re winning, I would work on an extension during the season with his agent.  But there’s no rush. He has to play for us for at least two more years. You can bang out a deal in that time. It’s definitely premature to re sign him today.