(04-18-2024, 10:24 AM)g1ml3t Wrote: [ -> ]This year should give us clarity on Trevor one way or another. I think he will succeed, although I wish they had done more to bolster the line and receiving corps (still have the draft obviously). If he has another sub par year the haters will be vindicated and the Jags are back to square one, although we wouldnt be on the hook for franchise qb money.
If he has another sub-par year because the line can't block, the team can't run, and he's broken 4 times again then it should be Baalke who goes. What would likely happen in that case it that Lawrences goes somewhere else for a huge bank and that team becomes a perennial playoff contender. The haters wouldn't be vindicated, they'd be shown to be ignorant.
(04-18-2024, 11:08 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ] (04-18-2024, 10:24 AM)g1ml3t Wrote: [ -> ]This year should give us clarity on Trevor one way or another. I think he will succeed, although I wish they had done more to bolster the line and receiving corps (still have the draft obviously). If he has another sub par year the haters will be vindicated and the Jags are back to square one, although we wouldnt be on the hook for franchise qb money.
If he has another sub-par year because the line can't block, the team can't run, and he's broken 4 times again then it should be Baalke who goes. What would likely happen in that case it that Lawrences goes somewhere else for a huge bank and that team becomes a perennial playoff contender. The haters wouldn't be vindicated, they'd be shown to be ignorant.
Agreed, performance isn't measured in a vacuum. This year his performance was very good for the amount of bad play around him, if it's the same next year (and with cousin Baalke in charge it could be) there will be a lot of the bib brigade calling for his head, but, really, Khan would be the one at fault for yet again failing to recognize what needed to be done and doing it.
(04-18-2024, 11:00 AM)cland Wrote: [ -> ] (04-18-2024, 10:24 AM)g1ml3t Wrote: [ -> ]This year should give us clarity on Trevor one way or another. I think he will succeed, although I wish they had done more to bolster the line and receiving corps (still have the draft obviously). If he has another sub par year the haters will be vindicated and the Jags are back to square one, although we wouldnt be on the hook for franchise qb money.
I post this hesitantly, but I feel like if Trevor has a year similar to last year (with way too many turnovers, etc.) and the Jags miss the playoffs, the board will split into the diehard TLaw fans posting more (and sometimes reasonable) excuses and other posters moving to the "he doesn't quite have it" crowd. I feel like a broken record, but like you, I hope that the Oline will be bolstered in the draft and post-draft FA to give Lawrence every opportunity to show the best that he has in year 4. If his best is enough to put him in the top 10 then resign him, if it's not it's time to look at the 5th year option and incoming 2025 QBs.
Everything is sunshine and rainbows when you draft your QB 1st overall or even top 5. Expectations are he will be one of the best in the league in short order for every franchise that has the opportunity to get their guy so high in the draft and then by extension have exclusive rights to that player for the foreseeable future. The reality is, the NFL is a tough business and a tough league to win in. Sunshine and rainbows can get cloudy with a chance of severe weather real quick due to injury, player regression or competition getting better. There are 21 other guys on the field on any given play that affect the outcome of that play and nothing is certain, only probabilities exist and sometimes luck runs dry for a period of time.
He's not infallible, but there are watchers of the game and watchers of stats and the latter by itself won't tell you if someone has it or not. Sure, some baseline level stats should be there for any QB in this league, but the rest of the evaluation process should be done with your eyes watching and taking note of a guy going through progressions, keeping his eyes downfield, making tight window throws, making generally good decisions, hitting guys in stride, throwing guys open, having good pocket awareness, being able to escape pressure and being able to still throw wherever he wants/needs to while on the run. There are probably a few additional factors I've missed there, but my eyes tell me he has all of that. I believe that real football people in the league share that assessment of him. I think that will clearly show through this year and put those that are more casual in their fandom or more reliant on stat sheets at ease, but injuries happen and 17 game seasons are long so there is absolutely a scenario or scenarios where that doesn't happen.
That said, all of the above applies to your guy as well. Sunshine and rainbows can turn to severe weather real quick. Just be prepared for such when it happens. Brady/Mahomes type long-term dominance should be viewed as almost unattainable and I hesitate to even include Mahomes name there because 5 years is only a quarter of Brady's tenure in the league so there is still a long way to go to be comparable as far as long-term dominance is concerned and I think the level of QB play in the AFC is or will soon be much more competitive than anything Brady had to deal with.
(04-18-2024, 11:08 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ] (04-18-2024, 10:24 AM)g1ml3t Wrote: [ -> ]This year should give us clarity on Trevor one way or another. I think he will succeed, although I wish they had done more to bolster the line and receiving corps (still have the draft obviously). If he has another sub par year the haters will be vindicated and the Jags are back to square one, although we wouldnt be on the hook for franchise qb money.
If he has another sub-par year because the line can't block, the team can't run, and he's broken 4 times again then it should be Baalke who goes. What would likely happen in that case it that Lawrences goes somewhere else for a huge bank and that team becomes a perennial playoff contender. The haters wouldn't be vindicated, they'd be shown to be ignorant.
I agree for the most part, but there has to be some QB accountability at some point. If the QB goes through 4 seasons with his strongest performance being the 2nd half of the 2nd season, there is something there that is not working. If you look at Andrew Luck's career, he notoriously had the worst possible Oline, was constantly banged up, but still managed to keep his TD to INT rating reasonable. Now Lawrence doesn't have to be Luck, but there is a level where you have to decide that the QB isn't elevating his team.
I think this year will put it all to rest. Worst possible thing would be an early season ending injury. I think Trevor has a huge year and we are all relatively happy resigning him.
(04-18-2024, 11:26 AM)cland Wrote: [ -> ] (04-18-2024, 11:08 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ]If he has another sub-par year because the line can't block, the team can't run, and he's broken 4 times again then it should be Baalke who goes. What would likely happen in that case it that Lawrences goes somewhere else for a huge bank and that team becomes a perennial playoff contender. The haters wouldn't be vindicated, they'd be shown to be ignorant.
I agree for the most part, but there has to be some QB accountability at some point. If the QB goes through 4 seasons with his strongest performance being the 2nd half of the 2nd season, there is something there that is not working. If you look at Andrew Luck's career, he notoriously had the worst possible Oline, was constantly banged up, but still managed to keep his TD to INT rating reasonable. Now Lawrence doesn't have to be Luck, but there is a level where you have to decide that the QB isn't elevating his team.
What I see is that he's currently elevating a bad team to 9 wins, and once he got hurt it was all down hill. Everything wrong with this offense starts on the line. They've made some moves but I don't think it's enough. Deity help him if we have to run Fortner out their again at center this season.
(04-18-2024, 12:56 PM)nhiverson Wrote: [ -> ]https://twitter.com/prettyrickey213/stat...9728840808
We should get a deal done with TLAW, and I’d say around 50M per year is where it should land. Mahomes is 45M per year to allow the chiefs to be flexible with the cap, that would be nice if we got that.
(04-18-2024, 12:56 PM)nhiverson Wrote: [ -> ]https://twitter.com/prettyrickey213/stat...9728840808
Whew, so Lawrence is going to make more than Burrow if that tweet is right? So
more than 5 years - $275 Million - $219 Million guaranteed ($55M per year), and then they're going to scrape enough money/cap space to get Aiyuk.
Hmm I'm sticking with 'don't believe everything you read on the internet,' until I see those deals executed.
(04-18-2024, 01:15 PM)cland Wrote: [ -> ] (04-18-2024, 12:56 PM)nhiverson Wrote: [ -> ]https://twitter.com/prettyrickey213/stat...9728840808
Whew, so Lawrence is going to make more than Burrow if that tweet is right? So more than 5 years - $275 Million - $219 Million guaranteed ($55M per year), and then they're going to scrape enough money/cap space to get Aiyuk.
Hmm I'm sticking with 'don't believe everything you read on the internet,' until I see those deals executed.
These tweets are made by league nobodies trying to become league somebodies. They fire enough crap out there so they can get a few right and start stockpiling the right ones to try to make a case they belong and are "in the know" and perhaps eventually get press credentials and/or legitimate info flowing their way and make a career out of it. Good for them for trying and doing what they have to to break into the industry in a "fake it until you make it" type way. But when they get something right, make sure to go back and count up all the things they got wrong before crowning them as legitimate sources. I would say most of their stuff is educated guesses rather than legitimately having someone in the building or associated with a particular agent feeding them info. I don't really care to dig to deep into it, but I would not be surprised at all if really bad guesses on Twitter get deleted at some point to make the hit rate seem higher.
The people that get fed info are Schefter, RapSheet and the like and there's some reciprocity there as was exposed in the Redskins email scandal where Schefter was letting Bruce Allen approve a draft of a story before it was published which is a journalistic no no but apparently is also the price that must be paid at times to be fed legitimate info.
These league nobodies on Twitter/X aren't viewed as legitimate news sites and don't have anything to offer teams or agents so there's no reason either would be feeding them info. They are fun follows I guess if you like to hear league related prognostication, but it should be understood that's what it is.
(04-18-2024, 11:55 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: [ -> ] (04-18-2024, 11:26 AM)cland Wrote: [ -> ]I agree for the most part, but there has to be some QB accountability at some point. If the QB goes through 4 seasons with his strongest performance being the 2nd half of the 2nd season, there is something there that is not working. If you look at Andrew Luck's career, he notoriously had the worst possible Oline, was constantly banged up, but still managed to keep his TD to INT rating reasonable. Now Lawrence doesn't have to be Luck, but there is a level where you have to decide that the QB isn't elevating his team.
What I see is that he's currently elevating a bad team to 9 wins, and once he got hurt it was all down hill. Everything wrong with this offense starts on the line. They've made some moves but I don't think it's enough. Deity help him if we have to run Fortner out their again at center this season.
A team that had the #1 pick 2 years in a row. Trevors first year was a disaster because of Urban Meyer.
We go from 1-15 before TL, 3-14 with Meyer to 9-8 in the playoffs with Pederson, 9-8 just missing the playoffs with a QB that was banged up all season and don't forget Press also started calling plays (which many didn't like alot of his calls). It was a horrible collapse to finish the season, but you can only do so much when injured.
A superbowl would be awesome, but man I'm just happy playoffs are actually in the conversation.
Team friendly deal with incentives?
(04-18-2024, 01:46 PM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: [ -> ] (04-18-2024, 01:15 PM)cland Wrote: [ -> ]Whew, so Lawrence is going to make more than Burrow if that tweet is right? So more than 5 years - $275 Million - $219 Million guaranteed ($55M per year), and then they're going to scrape enough money/cap space to get Aiyuk.
Hmm I'm sticking with 'don't believe everything you read on the internet,' until I see those deals executed.
These tweets are made by league nobodies trying to become league somebodies. They fire enough crap out there so they can get a few right and start stockpiling the right ones to try to make a case they belong and are "in the know" and perhaps eventually get press credentials and/or legitimate info flowing their way and make a career out of it. Good for them for trying and doing what they have to to break into the industry in a "fake it until you make it" type way. But when they get something right, make sure to go back and count up all the things they got wrong before crowning them as legitimate sources. I would say most of their stuff is educated guesses rather than legitimately having someone in the building or associated with a particular agent feeding them info. I don't really care to dig to deep into it, but I would not be surprised at all if really bad guesses on Twitter get deleted at some point to make the hit rate seem higher.
The people that get fed info are Schefter, RapSheet and the like and there's some reciprocity there as was exposed in the Redskins email scandal where Schefter was letting Bruce Allen approve a draft of a story before it was published which is a journalistic no no but apparently is also the price that must be paid at times to be fed legitimate info.
These league nobodies on Twitter/X aren't viewed as legitimate news sites and don't have anything to offer teams or agents so there's no reason either would be feeding them info. They are fun follows I guess if you like to hear league related prognostication, but it should be understood that's what it is.
Not sure if you're talkin bout taekmongers or GMs
(04-19-2024, 07:17 AM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: [ -> ] (04-19-2024, 05:22 AM)Caldrac Wrote: [ -> ]Mehhh.
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Apparently he deleted the tweet. The link no longer works.
IIRC he said 7 years, $60M per with $310 guaranteed which I’ll believe when I see.
I honestly can't see him getting much more than $260M, tops. I like the kid. I do. Unless he absolutely goes off this year and starts hitting elite numbers, numbers around 4600 yards, 30+ TD's and turnovers that stay below 12 at the minimum?
There's no way I am giving him that kind of contract. Leaves you little wiggle room to improve elsewhere. Huge gamble.
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