(01-29-2024, 01:52 PM)cland Wrote: [ -> ] (01-22-2024, 02:27 AM)Dockerill91 Wrote: [ -> ]https://www.reddit.com/r/CHIBears/commen...me_throws/
Sorry, again another stat (can you tell I’m a quant?) very interesting one showing turnover throws vs big time throws.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CHIBears/commen...me_throws/
Trevor narrowly showing in the ‘risk taker’ category here, but I believe a 0.2% reduction in turnover worthy throws puts him in the ‘good category’
I know stats aren’t everything, but I believe with these + the eye test it’s just showing this year, we need to support this guy and give him the proper opportunity to succeed, there is enough there and this is just on the back of an injury laden season. Make the Oline better and watch him go off this year.
(Link is Reddit but via PFF)
My view is this, and this thread backs it up, we do not know conclusively what we have in TLaw right now and imo that is the worst place you can be with a QB in the NFL.
Obviously Trevor is not where we hoped he would be, though he has shown rest flashes, but also bad flashes. However there is enough excuses to justify it, these being, poor Oline, mass amount of injuries (due to the previous point), receiver drops (especially turning into interceptions which we led the league in).
Now as we’re coming to the end of the Rookie deal that puts us in a very precarious position, do we pay Trevor (.likely to be around 35-40m per year) or do we have to replace him? Bearing in mind we’re not going to be drafting high enough so we’ll have to part with some picks (sure we could get some back)
So this off season, we heavily support Trevor via free agency and the draft to improve the Oline and if we can WR support with the first 3/4 rounds. (I would like a big DT but we’ll see)
I think we will see an improvement in the D by keeping them off the field less time so keeping fresh, Walker naturally improving, and hopefully seeing an improve offense making the opposing offense more one dimentional having to chase games.
IMO, you could argue that a 2nd,3rd,4th round pick could save us potentially around 40m a year or multiple first round draft picks, I don’t see any other way of getting more value from those picks.
Great posts SuperJville and Dockerill91, this is exactly how I think the Jags should handle Trevor Lawrence prior to giving him an extension. This is a bit repetitive, but I think some of the posts that state something similar to "IF he had a better OLine, IF his receivers wouldn't drop the ball, IF his Offensive Coordinator would call better plays, IF he wasn't injured, etc. he would be a top level QB.", are supporting a performance that they have yet to actually see so far. Now I'm NOT saying that those IFs aren't true, but those supporting a new contract this offseason without actually seeing that performance, are taking a large gamble with the salary cap.
I think at a top level, teams speculate with the NFL draft, teams pay for what they've seen and how they'd fit the team with FAs, and the team better know for sure before giving the largest contract extension they've ever paid.
Many of us have seen it.
Smart people in the football world have seen it.
(01-30-2024, 08:47 AM)Cleatwood Wrote: [ -> ] (01-29-2024, 01:52 PM)cland Wrote: [ -> ]Great posts SuperJville and Dockerill91, this is exactly how I think the Jags should handle Trevor Lawrence prior to giving him an extension. This is a bit repetitive, but I think some of the posts that state something similar to "IF he had a better OLine, IF his receivers wouldn't drop the ball, IF his Offensive Coordinator would call better plays, IF he wasn't injured, etc. he would be a top level QB.", are supporting a performance that they have yet to actually see so far. Now I'm NOT saying that those IFs aren't true, but those supporting a new contract this offseason without actually seeing that performance, are taking a large gamble with the salary cap.
I think at a top level, teams speculate with the NFL draft, teams pay for what they've seen and how they'd fit the team with FAs, and the team better know for sure before giving the largest contract extension they've ever paid.
Many of us have seen it.
Smart people in the football world have seen it.
I agree with that we have definitely seen it, but I think the point here we’ve also seen a lot of hair brained decisions with interceptions, now I put this down to him not trusting his Oline, certain receivers and playing hero ball, but ultimately as confident as I am in that, I’m not 100%, as the previous poster said you should be 100% before you do.
Regardless of the relevance of the contract, we need to do it to protect him, look what Luck did after years of bad injuries.
(01-30-2024, 09:31 AM)Dockerill91 Wrote: [ -> ] (01-30-2024, 08:47 AM)Cleatwood Wrote: [ -> ]Many of us have seen it.
Smart people in the football world have seen it.
I agree with that we have definitely seen it, but I think the point here we’ve also seen a lot of hair brained decisions with interceptions, now I put this down to him not trusting his Oline, certain receivers and playing hero ball, but ultimately as confident as I am in that, I’m not 100%, as the previous poster said you should be 100% before you do.
Regardless of the relevance of the contract, we need to do it to protect him, look what Luck did after years of bad injuries.
For me, I'm 100%. Many of the advanced analytics (which some people scoff at) show just how good he was playing last year. Let's also not forget what was happening with Trevor after the SF loss and before his injury against Cincy. He had 884 passing yards, 9 total TDs and 1 interception. He was on his way to blowing up in the latter portion of this season WITH THE WORST OLINE IN FOOTBALL. He was going to go on an absolute tear.
If they don't extend him this year, and he blows up, that contract will be the highest in league history. This same exact scenario happened with Josh Allen and now look where the Jags are at.
Extend him now and look smart in March of 2025. Don't extend him now and look dumb next year at this time.
(01-30-2024, 11:23 AM)Cleatwood Wrote: [ -> ] (01-30-2024, 09:31 AM)Dockerill91 Wrote: [ -> ]I agree with that we have definitely seen it, but I think the point here we’ve also seen a lot of hair brained decisions with interceptions, now I put this down to him not trusting his Oline, certain receivers and playing hero ball, but ultimately as confident as I am in that, I’m not 100%, as the previous poster said you should be 100% before you do.
Regardless of the relevance of the contract, we need to do it to protect him, look what Luck did after years of bad injuries.
For me, I'm 100%. Many of the advanced analytics (which some people scoff at) show just how good he was playing last year. Let's also not forget what was happening with Trevor after the SF loss and before his injury against Cincy. He had 884 passing yards, 9 total TDs and 1 interception. He was on his way to blowing up in the latter portion of this season WITH THE WORST OLINE IN FOOTBALL. He was going to go on an absolute tear.
If they don't extend him this year, and he blows up, that contract will be the highest in league history. This same exact scenario happened with Josh Allen and now look where the Jags are at.
Extend him now and look smart in March of 2025. Don't extend him now and look dumb next year at this time.
Players can and often do hold out even though they have a pretty fresh contract. Signing him early won’t save you anything.
And if he does blow up like you say he will, then I have no problem with him being the highest paid player.
Gardener Minshew has as many pro bowls as Trevor Lawrence. *ducks*
(01-30-2024, 05:12 PM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: [ -> ]Gardener Minshew has as many pro bowls as Trevor Lawrence. *ducks*
Minshew's not a bad QB. He has his moments. My Dad is infatuated with the guy. I grill him every now and then on gamedays about it when he gets into this weird comparison cycle.
I always circle back to the bottom line though. If Minshew is as good as some of his fans made him out to be, why didn't he do more to prevent the team from falling into a 1 - 15 record and ultimately hand the number one overall pick and his job opportunity to Lawrence?
That's how I view it. Now, in fairness to him, I often cite the fact that Caldwell selected Henderson and Chaisson to make up for losing Ramsay and Ngakoue, but, maybe it's a different story today had they given Minshew Wirfs at RT and Jefferson at WR.
We'll never know. What we do know, is that, we have Lawrence, we've won 9 games with him in back-to-back years and he still has plenty of room to develop.
(01-30-2024, 05:12 PM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: [ -> ]Gardener Minshew has as many pro bowls as Trevor Lawrence. *ducks*
And have just as many pro bowls as Joe Burrow so I guess he's better than him too right. LOL. The most likely thing that happened was Trevor Lawrence turned the invitation down not because Minshew got selected before him.
(01-30-2024, 11:23 AM)Cleatwood Wrote: [ -> ] (01-30-2024, 09:31 AM)Dockerill91 Wrote: [ -> ]I agree with that we have definitely seen it, but I think the point here we’ve also seen a lot of hair brained decisions with interceptions, now I put this down to him not trusting his Oline, certain receivers and playing hero ball, but ultimately as confident as I am in that, I’m not 100%, as the previous poster said you should be 100% before you do.
Regardless of the relevance of the contract, we need to do it to protect him, look what Luck did after years of bad injuries.
For me, I'm 100%. Many of the advanced analytics (which some people scoff at) show just how good he was playing last year. Let's also not forget what was happening with Trevor after the SF loss and before his injury against Cincy. He had 884 passing yards, 9 total TDs and 1 interception. He was on his way to blowing up in the latter portion of this season WITH THE WORST OLINE IN FOOTBALL. He was going to go on an absolute tear.
If they don't extend him this year, and he blows up, that contract will be the highest in league history. This same exact scenario happened with Josh Allen and now look where the Jags are at.
Extend him now and look smart in March of 2025. Don't extend him now and look dumb next year at this time.
Yup that Bengals game was the beginning of the end. Losing Kirk and then Lawrence getting his ankle stepped on.
https://twitter.com/MoveDemChains89/stat...2093002095
(01-30-2024, 12:53 PM)SuperJville Wrote: [ -> ] (01-30-2024, 11:23 AM)Cleatwood Wrote: [ -> ]For me, I'm 100%. Many of the advanced analytics (which some people scoff at) show just how good he was playing last year. Let's also not forget what was happening with Trevor after the SF loss and before his injury against Cincy. He had 884 passing yards, 9 total TDs and 1 interception. He was on his way to blowing up in the latter portion of this season WITH THE WORST OLINE IN FOOTBALL. He was going to go on an absolute tear.
If they don't extend him this year, and he blows up, that contract will be the highest in league history. This same exact scenario happened with Josh Allen and now look where the Jags are at.
Extend him now and look smart in March of 2025. Don't extend him now and look dumb next year at this time.
Players can and often do hold out even though they have a pretty fresh contract. Signing him early won’t save you anything.
And if he does blow up like you say he will, then I have no problem with him being the highest paid player.
Signing him early will likely save 50+ million dollars.
(01-30-2024, 09:31 AM)Dockerill91 Wrote: [ -> ] (01-30-2024, 08:47 AM)Cleatwood Wrote: [ -> ]Many of us have seen it.
Smart people in the football world have seen it.
I agree with that we have definitely seen it, but I think the point here we’ve also seen a lot of hair brained decisions with interceptions, now I put this down to him not trusting his Oline, certain receivers and playing hero ball, but ultimately as confident as I am in that, I’m not 100%, as the previous poster said you should be 100% before you do.
Regardless of the relevance of the contract, we need to do it to protect him, look what Luck did after years of bad injuries.
I've watched enough football and watched enough bad QB play to safely say I'm 100%. In a league that's desperate for good QBs, we finally have one.
Of course there's stuff he has got to clean up, what player doesn't. The kid is only 24 years old. He's just getting started and the best is yet to come.
(01-30-2024, 08:23 PM)Eric1 Wrote: [ -> ] (01-30-2024, 09:31 AM)Dockerill91 Wrote: [ -> ]I agree with that we have definitely seen it, but I think the point here we’ve also seen a lot of hair brained decisions with interceptions, now I put this down to him not trusting his Oline, certain receivers and playing hero ball, but ultimately as confident as I am in that, I’m not 100%, as the previous poster said you should be 100% before you do.
Regardless of the relevance of the contract, we need to do it to protect him, look what Luck did after years of bad injuries.
I've watched enough football and watched enough bad QB play to safely say I'm 100%. In a league that's desperate for good QBs, we finally have one.
Of course there's stuff he has got to clean up, what player doesn't. The kid is only 24 years old. He's just getting started and the best is yet to come.
I think some people forget just how young he actually is compared to other QBs in the league. This includes the incoming rookie class
(01-30-2024, 10:43 PM)Cleatwood Wrote: [ -> ] (01-30-2024, 08:23 PM)Eric1 Wrote: [ -> ]I've watched enough football and watched enough bad QB play to safely say I'm 100%. In a league that's desperate for good QBs, we finally have one.
Of course there's stuff he has got to clean up, what player doesn't. The kid is only 24 years old. He's just getting started and the best is yet to come.
I think some people forget just how young he actually is compared to other QBs in the league. This includes the incoming rookie class
Yup, some of the possible incoming rookie QBs are aged as follows.
Caleb Williams will be 23 in November.
Drake Maye will be 22 in August.
Jayden Daniels will be 24 in December.
Michael Penix Jr. will be 24 in May.
Bo Nix will be 24 in February.
JJ McCarthy is the youngest, he just turned 21 ten days ago.
Michael Pratt will be 23 in September.
Spencer Rattler will be 24 in September.
Lawrence will be 25 in October. Which will be his 4th year in the League.
Trevor reminds me a bit of Josh Allen's career arc, but better.
Both came into the league at 22. Both can make some boneheaded decisions sometimes. Both had a bad rookie year. Both showed promise in year two (Trevor more than Allen) Year 3 Allen took off, no injuries, Prime Diggs, great defense, PFF 10th ranked OL. Trevor had a rough year that we all know the circumstances of. I'm a believer in advanced analytics and those show Trevor's personal play (pre-injury) were right on par with year 3 Josh Allen.
Some of you look at advanced analytics but apparently don’t look at basics like how many touchdowns vs turnovers he’s responsible for.
Do the advanced analytics factor in Josh Allen’s rushing touchdowns?
I just don’t know how someone can say Trevor’s year (even before the injuries) was anything like Josh Allen’s year 3.
Josh Allen threw for 37 TDs and only has 10 picks.
He had 8 rushing touchdowns. 4 lost fumbles.
2020 stats: 5,000 yards (pass and rush), 45 touchdowns to 14 turnovers
Trevors 2023 stats:
4,400 yards (pass and rush), 24 touchdowns to 16 turnovers.
By year 3, Allen cemented himself as a top 3-5 qb. Year 3 was when he became elite. Year 3 brought a lot more question marks for Trevor. Yes - we understand the context. Offensive line play needs to improve. But I think we’re slightly exaggerating how bad the line was. I think they were about a C in pass blocking and a D in run blocking. Some people here act like they are F’s across the board.
So trevor is absolutely nothing like Allen in year 3. Allen literally has 21 ADDITIONAL touchdowns and fewer turnovers. It’s not even close. Not even a little bit.
Trevors 2023, like it or not, is a lot more similar to a journeyman qb stats that started for the whole year or a Derek Carr for example. I’m not arguing that Trevor doesn’t have the POTENTIAL to be a top 5 qb consistently, but let’s not pretend he’s anywhere near a Josh Allen after 3 years in the league.
Maybe it’s better to stop comparing Trevor to Mahomes, Josh Allen, etc.
It’s more fair to compare to Derek Carr, Ryan Tannehill (not washed up Tannehill, but the younger one) those types of guys. In terms of career arcs - do you think Trevor is on a Josh Allen arc or a Derek Carr arc?
Nothing to scoff at having a Derek Carr as your QB. I think Trevor has potential to be better than that, but it’s just potential for now.
(02-01-2024, 07:07 AM)SuperJville Wrote: [ -> ]Some of you look at advanced analytics but apparently don’t look at basics like how many touchdowns vs turnovers he’s responsible for.
Do the advanced analytics factor in Josh Allen’s rushing touchdowns?
I just don’t know how someone can say Trevor’s year (even before the injuries) was anything like Josh Allen’s year 3.
Josh Allen threw for 37 TDs and only has 10 picks.
He had 8 rushing touchdowns. 4 lost fumbles.
2020 stats: 5,000 yards (pass and rush), 45 touchdowns to 14 turnovers
Trevors 2023 stats:
4,400 yards (pass and rush), 24 touchdowns to 16 turnovers.
By year 3, Allen cemented himself as a top 3-5 qb. Year 3 was when he became elite. Year 3 brought a lot more question marks for Trevor. Yes - we understand the context. Offensive line play needs to improve. But I think we’re slightly exaggerating how bad the line was. I think they were about a C in pass blocking and a D in run blocking. Some people here act like they are F’s across the board.
So trevor is absolutely nothing like Allen in year 3. Allen literally has 21 ADDITIONAL touchdowns and fewer turnovers. It’s not even close. Not even a little bit.
Trevors 2023, like it or not, is a lot more similar to a journeyman qb stats that started for the whole year or a Derek Carr for example. I’m not arguing that Trevor doesn’t have the POTENTIAL to be a top 5 qb consistently, but let’s not pretend he’s anywhere near a Josh Allen after 3 years in the league.
Trevor literally had 16 TDs dropped and then was injured for the last 6 games. Allen was healthy behind a good OL.
Look at it however you want, but what I see is a guy just as good as those top guys who took a beating due to mismanagement of his OL and tried to play through injuries that clearly affected his ability. I have zero doubts on Trevor. Does he have things to clean up? Sure. They all do.
(02-01-2024, 08:27 AM)imtheblkranger Wrote: [ -> ] (02-01-2024, 07:07 AM)SuperJville Wrote: [ -> ]Some of you look at advanced analytics but apparently don’t look at basics like how many touchdowns vs turnovers he’s responsible for.
Do the advanced analytics factor in Josh Allen’s rushing touchdowns?
I just don’t know how someone can say Trevor’s year (even before the injuries) was anything like Josh Allen’s year 3.
Josh Allen threw for 37 TDs and only has 10 picks.
He had 8 rushing touchdowns. 4 lost fumbles.
2020 stats: 5,000 yards (pass and rush), 45 touchdowns to 14 turnovers
Trevors 2023 stats:
4,400 yards (pass and rush), 24 touchdowns to 16 turnovers.
By year 3, Allen cemented himself as a top 3-5 qb. Year 3 was when he became elite. Year 3 brought a lot more question marks for Trevor. Yes - we understand the context. Offensive line play needs to improve. But I think we’re slightly exaggerating how bad the line was. I think they were about a C in pass blocking and a D in run blocking. Some people here act like they are F’s across the board.
So trevor is absolutely nothing like Allen in year 3. Allen literally has 21 ADDITIONAL touchdowns and fewer turnovers. It’s not even close. Not even a little bit.
Trevors 2023, like it or not, is a lot more similar to a journeyman qb stats that started for the whole year or a Derek Carr for example. I’m not arguing that Trevor doesn’t have the POTENTIAL to be a top 5 qb consistently, but let’s not pretend he’s anywhere near a Josh Allen after 3 years in the league.
Trevor literally had 16 TDs dropped and then was injured for the last 6 games. Allen was healthy behind a good OL.
Look at it however you want, but what I see is a guy just as good as those top guys who took a beating due to mismanagement of his OL and tried to play through injuries that clearly affected his ability. I have zero doubts on Trevor. Does he have things to clean up? Sure. They all do.
How many TDs did Allen have dropped? Oh that’s right - you don’t know. Apparently Trevor is the only person that has dropped touchdowns. Also, plenty of those “dropped touchdowns” were high and basically out of bounds. You counting all those as “dropped” touchdowns shows me that you’re not looking at any of this objectively.
(02-01-2024, 08:34 AM)SuperJville Wrote: [ -> ] (02-01-2024, 08:27 AM)imtheblkranger Wrote: [ -> ]Trevor literally had 16 TDs dropped and then was injured for the last 6 games. Allen was healthy behind a good OL.
Look at it however you want, but what I see is a guy just as good as those top guys who took a beating due to mismanagement of his OL and tried to play through injuries that clearly affected his ability. I have zero doubts on Trevor. Does he have things to clean up? Sure. They all do.
How many TDs did Allen have dropped? Oh that’s right - you don’t know. Apparently Trevor is the only person that has dropped touchdowns. Also, plenty of those “dropped touchdowns” were high and basically out of bounds. You counting all those as “dropped” touchdowns shows me that you’re not looking at any of this objectively.
This is fair. Allen had some monster TD's dropped or missed due to bad routes. Including the loss to the Eagles and the play off loss to the Chiefs.
I kind of agree with the assessment of Lawrence and Allen being similar and then again, I struggle with it. For a number of reasons.
1. Allen is a linebacker playing quarterback. I wish Lawrence had that guys frame and mobility. Lawrence has some mobility to him but it's just not his style to be like Allen in that regard. The arm talent is there for both of them but Allen has the stronger arm in my opinion while Lawrence may honestly have the faster arm if that makes sense.
2. They're both turnover prone, however, Allen is more like Merrill Hess from the movie Signs. Allen may strikeout a lot but he also throws or scores a [BLEEP] TON of TD's. Lawrence doesn't possess this trait yet. Mostly due to lack of time and a running game that has to be respected. Lawrence essentially barely breaks even in the TD to Turnover column.
Trying my best not to get into this [BLEEP] for tat nonsense though. I still think Lawrence is a combination of Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers & Matt Ryan. He's a pocket passer that can sometimes get outside the pocket and make some really big plays with his ability to throw on the run or throw off schedule and then there's a little bit of mobility to his game that Rodgers had.
We'll see what happens in 2024. Hopefully Baalke and Pederson do the right thing and beef up the interior of the offensive line and potentially change the way they use the running game in general. Maybe they need to get into a more power approach and new mantra because the ZBS has been BS two years in a row.
(02-01-2024, 08:34 AM)SuperJville Wrote: [ -> ] (02-01-2024, 08:27 AM)imtheblkranger Wrote: [ -> ]Trevor literally had 16 TDs dropped and then was injured for the last 6 games. Allen was healthy behind a good OL.
Look at it however you want, but what I see is a guy just as good as those top guys who took a beating due to mismanagement of his OL and tried to play through injuries that clearly affected his ability. I have zero doubts on Trevor. Does he have things to clean up? Sure. They all do.
How many TDs did Allen have dropped? Oh that’s right - you don’t know. Apparently Trevor is the only person that has dropped touchdowns. Also, plenty of those “dropped touchdowns” were high and basically out of bounds. You counting all those as “dropped” touchdowns shows me that you’re not looking at any of this objectively.
High/Away where WRs still could have gotten their feet in bounds and have gotten their feet in bounds for us before.
You're right, I don't know how many TDs Allen had dropped that year
When I look at my QB, I look at Adjusted EPA, TD%, INT%, Comp %
Year 2 They both had the same TD%, Trevor with a better INT%, and Trevor Comp %
Year 3 Allen had slightly better Comp, Allen had a 1.7 INT% Trever had 2.5%, Allen had a ridiculous 6.5 TD%, Trevor had
3.7%
Prior to his ankle injury and during his knee injury, Trevor's INT% was 1.7. Right in line with Allen. His TD % was lower. His comp was 68% to Allen's 69%. And IMO, the 3 game stretch leading up to his ankle after the SF loss (After the knee brace came off) 70% comp, 5.2% TD, 0.86 INT%, 1 fumble is MUCH closer to who the real Trevor is when he's healthy.
I don't have the EPA numbers for either off hand.
Year three Allen was also the peak of his career at this point.
I never once said Trevor was better than Allen either. I said they have had similar career arcs and a lot of similar stats. Years 1 and 2 were very similar with Trevor having a better 2nd year. Year 3 the wheels fell off. We'll never know what this year could have been for Trevor it wasn't derailed by injuries or if he had the 10th best Pass blocking OL and NFL leading WR like Josh did year 3. We were hoping Ridley would be that but he wasn't. Could Allen have done better on this team in year 3? Maybe.
My point was I've seen enough of him to show me he's the guy and he's right up there with the top guys in terms of his ability but he's been dealt a bad hand with his supporting cast, mainly OL. I think our skill positions are good.
If you fix this OL Trevor takes off. Period.